at present what i believe is that major bullish or bearish trend will be decided on confirmation that are we retracing fall from 21109 to 15135 as a pull back and again we will be back down wards?( Bearish View)
or we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on path of new bull run from 15135 and we are going to make a new high (Bullish View ).
BEARISH VIEW :
to negate bearish view, we should retrace maximum up to 80 % of fall, that is 80 % level of fall from 21109 to 15135 ( 5974 points ) comes around 19914.so if we cross 19914 than bearish view should be negated and we should think that new bull run has started.
for this view we should correct in A-B-C pattern and we might have completed A(15135 to 18524), B (18524 to 15748) and we are on C ( 15748 to 19137 so far).
further options :
# it is possible we might have completed C at 19137 and we are on bigger C down wards.( i consider this view as less probable option.)
a ) we are C-4 down wards from 19137 and we have tested 18535 so far, crossover of 19000 zone will confirm that C - 4 is over and we are on C -5 up wards with maxm target of 19914.
b) we have not completed C -4 at 18535 and we are still on down move from 19137. in this case we have got very good support around 18415 , 38.2 % retracement level and level by other fibo calculations.we complete correction somewhere between 17973 to 18535 and start up move as C - 5
in any case we shd not break 17973 , in that case it will be established that we have completed up move started from 17251.and subsequently it may indicate ABC correction completed at 19137 and we are on bigger C down wards.
BULLISH VIEW :
we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on new bull run . we are on first wave of up move from 15135.
we are on sub wave 3.4 from 19137 and after completing correction we will be on 3.5 to be followed by sub wave 4 down wards ( correcting up move from 15748 to top to be made ) and sub wave 5 taking us to new high between 22500 to 24800.
