comments from Chanish on market

Chanish has shared his expert views on market status in one of the thread on blog.

they r interesting...go thru it.
 

 

quote

 

Thanks for your regular updates, Pankaj.   Here's my first msg on your blog !

 

As far as the market goes, Pankaj, as you know, I have been bearish all this while, so the views I may express herein maybe biased to some extent.   However, the fact is, technically speaking, although the nifty made a new 52-week closing high at 4655+ on June 10, 2009 this was a mere 2 points higher than the earlier 52-week high of 4653+ recorded on June 17, 2008.    Besides the huge double-top which is always a bearish sign, what is also equally significant is the fact that the nifty couldn't even cross its earlier 52-week high level of 4676+ recorded on June 5, 2008.   And from there onwards, we have already seen a correction of almost 10%, with today's closing level of 4235+ not only breaching Thursday's closing of 4251+, but also, more crucially, the historic freeze closing level of 4323+ on May 18, 2009 twice in quick succession.   TAs will argue that the next level to watch out will be 4116+, which if broken decisively, we may head straight downwards to the level of 3671+ very very quickly, and I will concur with their views, as it will then mean that the gaps between 3671 - 4116, which require filling, would have then served the purpose.   In my view, the sooner this gap is filled, the better for the bulls, otherwise the next downard correction, whenever it comes, will be that much more deeper.
 
I have not resorted to any fresh buying, and am more than 65% in cash, which I hope to deploy only at sharp panic declines.   And yes, until we make a new all-time high in excess of 21,226 (sensex), I will maintain, very strongly, that we will always be closer to sub-9K than new highs.

Cheers,
chanish

 

BREAK OUT FROM DOWN WARD CHANNEL

we have come out from downward channel and as mentioned in last mail that confirms that we have completed first leg downward and now we will see pull back in upward direction of fall from 15600 to 14180.retracement lvls r 14634/14890 and15057 , (38.2/50 and 61.8%).

market status

as expected we saw a pull back. low made on friday at 14180 again a low near 14188.
we have not come out of downward channel yet which was shown in 5 daychart.
we have not broken trend line on linear scale yet.
i discussed about resistance at 21day mov avg and suport at 34 day moving avg.
on friday we got suport exactly at 34 day moving avg in nifty at 4206 and bounced sharply.
what next?
zone near 14180/4206 is giving suporrt at present. for further weakness we have to break that zone.on breaking out from downward channel on upside we can assume we have completed first leg of downmove at 14180/4206 and we can see an upmoving second leg. we will observe mkt in coming days for action in either direction.