Fwd: Mirage 1.6 & History repeats

Dear Friends,
 
i am forwarding Spandan Joshi's analysis.
 
Pankaj Shah

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Spandan Joshi <joshispandan@yahoo.co.uk>
Date: 30 January 2010 16:14
Subject: Mirage 1.6 & History repeats

Dear all,   History repeats. May not be for wave formations but I prepared my first Elliott's on 30th January 2008 after badly beaten on 21st and 22nd January 2008  by heavy selling. (FIIs in excess of 2.3K crores.)   Same amount of stocks sold on 21st and 22nd January and around in 2010.   I have also prepared Elliott's today. (30/01/2010)   In previous version of Mirage 1.5 following was written a week ago when we were still on 17K.   Please review them very carefully followed by looking at the attachment.   My latest (previous)  analysis as per Mirage 1.5 on 24/01/2010 is as follows. ==================================================================== In last update I mentioend about targets of 4th of 5th wave as follows.   1 17200 2 17000 3 16800   And we have seen all three targets and seen sensex dipping to 16608 briefly intra-day.   Having said that it has closed 250 points higher, thanks to (superb) DII's buying. (nearly 2K Crores)   In coming days we shall see completion of 4th wave and journey towards a  very last of the last subwave called 5th wave.   4th wave was down ward going while 5th is upward going.   If we assume that 4th wave is over at 16608 then we can set up targets for 5th wave as per 123% or 162% of fall of 1182 points (17790 minus 16608)   The targets are 1454 points or 1915 points. Hence targets are,   1 18062 (123% upmove of the entire fall) 2 18523 (162% upmove of the entire fall)   These are targets of 5th wave unless it fails.   The most common point where a last OR 5th wave fails is on 4th wave. (preceding one) Hence one has to be cautious on buying considering the same. Please watch out for 5th wave failure.   Signs and symptoms of 5th wave failure are as follows.   1 Breaking of 16540 and remain below for > 3 days 2 Breaking of 16210 and remain below for > 3 days 3 Limited upside to 17200 only and if goes above,  mustn't stay for greater than 3 days.   If any of the above doesn't happen then we shall progress to 5th of 5th as usual, anticipating 18K. (C-5-5)   Best wishes and Regards Spandan =================================================   Mirage 1.6 (30/01/2010) =============================   I am in an anticipation that 5th of 5th is a failure wave and hence prepared the latest Elliott's at 1.00 am on 30/01/2010.   However all is not lost and a "Extra ordinary" up move over 16560 and 17200 will surely save the game in favour of 5th wave. In that case one has to remain with 18K or 18.5K targets.   Having said that, there are certainly early signs of 5th failure seen clearly. Not crossing 16700/16800 in coming days as well as goign below 16210 would strengthn the case for larger C wave. Sensex below 15300 would confirm it. (Lower bottom/Lower Top)   You all know that C comes with five giant waves. C1, C3 and C5 goes down and the curernt down move can be part of C-1. C2 and C4 goes up.   It looks like we may be on C1, subwave 4, which is small upmove, targetting 16600/16800.  This generally followed by C1-5, a last down wave and that may target 16210/15700.   C-2 targets can only be given once I get C1-5's final stop.   More later   Friends may comment.   Regards   Spandan

ALL IS WELL ?

i have attached 2 charts. one is alternative wave count by vivek patil which was shown with his weekly report on 25.1.10 and 2nd chart is with today's market.

if ALL IS WELL  in this market than we shd start upmove very soon.today rsi level is same as we were at 15331 and we have closed at 16290. that shows that still there is a hope for an up move.i have tried another wave count for that and this is purely an effort to predict market move in advance which can fail totally also.take yr decision with proper care.

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TODAY WE HAVE TESTED SUPPORT ZONE AS PER " ALL IS WELL " AND BOUNCED FROM THERE.
F N O EXPIORY IS OVER.
RBI POLICY IS OVER.
NEXT TRIGGERE?
BUDGET AND DISINVESTMENT IPOS. GOVT WILL NEED +VE ENVIORNMENT.

KEEP STRICT STOP LOSS OF TODAY'S LOW AT 15982.
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ALL IS WELL STOP LOSS 15982 BROKEN.
WAIT FOR HIGHER LOW AND HIGHER HIGH FORMATION FOR ANY LONG POSITION.

VIVEK PATIL'S ALTERNATIVE VIEW

VIVEK PATIL ALTERNATIVE VIEW AS ON 25.1.2010

 

Structure of the Sensex can remain positive if it holds well about 15331 by Feb'2010. Wavecount- wise, downside holding above 15331 can be marked either as "x" (as shown on the opening chart), OR as "f" as per the alternative structure presented below.

Weak trading below 15331 would, however, justify Sensex having hit maturity levels or a major top around 17735.Wave-wise, it would mean "B" leg rally from Mar'09 lows got over at 17493 during Oct'08,from where "C" has already been forming for downward targets of 13500 (Gap-up of

May08) / 11850 (60% correction level) / 10600 (80% correction level).

 

On the alternate structure shown on the chart above, one may notice an interesting time analysis.Like 10-week long falling segments during the post-Jan'10 bear phase, I had pointed out about 13-week long rallying segments during the Post-Mar'09 rise.

 

After each rallying segment, chart shows a falling segment of 3-5 weeks. After the 10-week rally to 17780, we are now into the falling segment, This may continue for 3-5 weeks, taking us into Feb'10, which has been considered crucial time period for continuing bullish expectations.

 

Price-wise, each subsequent rallying segment has been 55% of the previous rallying segment. It indicates loss of bull-power, despite hitting newer highs of the larger rally.

 

Structurally, the larger rally since Mar'09 continues to be marked as a "B" wave corrective leg to the 14-month fall ("A" leg) even within this alternative. In Triangles, "B" leg can consume lessertime than "A".

 

The "B" leg of a Triangle can form as a 3-legged pattern (Zigzag or Flat) or as a 7-legged pattern called Diametric. We cannot mark "B" as a 5-legged pattern, i.e. Triangle. The up-move since Mar'09 is, therefore, possibly developing as a 7-legged Diametric

The current drop from Jan'10 high of 17780 becomes its "f" leg, after which the last leg, i.e. "g" leg,

would develop upwards, preferably reaching levels higher than 17780 (even 22000), if it is not a

Failure leg ("g" leg can be a Failure leg).

MARKET?

Friends

in last few mails i have been mentioning stop loss of 16578 for all long positions. yesterday we made low of 16608 and closed at 16859.level of 16608 is very close to 75% of rise from 16210 to 17790. its also imp weekly closing support area.

as per our 1-2-3 pattern if we break 16578 our stop loss will be violated and it will be case of sell on rise till we see higher bottom and higher top formation.

dow charts are also attached herewith.previously we had seen good up move as per 30.10.09 chart from 50 ema support area.now it has reversed from long term trend line  resistance. so chances are there dow have made an intermediate top.

what next?

if we break 16578 we have to assume that sensex has also made in intermediate top at 17790 and we can see further corrections. next strong support areas are 16k and 15600.

more over 100 dma is also shown in chart. during fall of 2008 i have been referring in my mails that we are facing strong resistance at 100 dma. and we shd be positive on our markets when we close above 100 dma. similarly during rise of 2009 100 dma has given strong support to our markets. we have closed just above it. violation of the same will be bearish for coming days.

dec qtr earning season is near the end. further moves will be as per stocks performances and expected performance expectations.

SENSEX AS ON 21.1.10

when we were near 17700, it was expected that we may correct as shown in this mail.

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2010/01/sensex.html

now if we follow wave count mostly we have completed sub wave B.c.4 today at 17025  or even if we correct from here we shd not close below 16800 to keep up move intact.

if we start up move from here it will be last n final sub wave of this up move.which may run up to budget.

targets can be betn 17970 to 18555.

this rally shd be used to generate cash.

SENSEX

LOOK AT CHART

STOCKS TO WATCH

STOCKS TO WATCH FOR BUYING FOR VERY SHORT TERM. 

KEEP STOP LOSS AS PER YOUR COMFORT.

TISCO CMP 654

SAIL CMP 238

NIRMA CMP 225

MUKAND CMP 70

MARUTI CMP 1458

5 DAY SENSEX CHART

COMMENTS ON CHART

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PRICE HAS NOT SUPPORTED +VE DIVERGENCE. YESTERDAY LOW IS NOT SUSTAINED SO MORE WEAKNESS TO BE SEEN

DYNAMATE TECH

CHART ATTACHED
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cheers ! dynamite 1100+
6% up

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TARGET ACHIEVED TODAY ITSELF. TESTED 1199.

GEOMETRIC

CHART ATTACHED

CORE PROJECT

CHART ATTACHED

INFRA STOCKS

look at chart attached of srei infra 

INFRA STOCKS

ON FRIDAY INFRA STOCKS HAS SHOWN GOOD MOVES WITH VOLUMES.

CHARTS OF GMR INFRA AND RIIL ARE ATTACHED HEREWITH.

SENSEX

FRIENDS,

FIRST OF ALL I WILL LIKE TO ADD FEW LINKS WHICH WILL GUIDE US WHERE WE R HEADED.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicRQgm30xjq0n5ZSWYruB2XwTj9VxmxoF3u6Vh1RCNfqp4xSUUnDTAcwO6PyeCTPnJC3Q0fWeEIaOUPaCVPWWRd_rJU66VC165DGtULVMPh-ToZ2paJ9XYA2wrypXJQNMxtISOsYDh4EmU/s1600/sensex+option+2+new+as+on+27.11.09

I WILL LIKE TO ADD HERE THAT UP MOVE SHOWN FROM 15331 AS WAVE B.c IS NOW MATCHING WITH AN OPTION THAT WE R IN 5TH WAVE OF RALLY STARTED FROM 8047.I AM NOT AN ELLIOT EXPERT SO I DONT WANT TO GO IN DEBATE OF WAVE COUNTS.I AM CONCERNED WITH CORRECT DIRECTION OF MARKET.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxSL4bUvohovBqbQdZUgQyxK15iTmCeok-U6toZom0e3EjGqcQAjoWnxN9Ry9UtQF9fqfuhQHnALEorMW96kF7WzGqOF4UqbyLTZvM8vRBR-k2xJDg3sl5yJ6BYTEEB9iD96dZ4aXV4DeK/s1600-h/SENSEX+AS+ON+31.12.2009-771802.PNG

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYwlWtcGYst956AcGWMRVY50WNoECHInI7hos_bUQBlqzyaQb2b062Df0UI0zD28llA2drj23k94FI9ak-onlwboHSG4UQn19-8m4BswrLBwhJDHGfYqOme0ZdcrMzwSWV6C1hTYHposH2/s1600-h/sensex+as+on+4.1.2010-763485.PNG

ON 6/1/10 WE REVERSED FROM 17790 VERY CLOSE TO OUR TARGET OF 17800+.

WHAT NEXT?

look at chart attached. we may correction upto 17186/17000 or 16814 as per 38.2/50/61.8% retracements  from where we may see last up moving euphoric leg of this rally which may prove to be a strong budget rally.

immediate stop loss is at 16578.

PHARMA STOCKS

FRONT LINE PHARMA STOCKS LIKE CIPLA, RANBAXY HAVE CLOSED WELL AND MAY PERFORM BETTER IN COMING DAYS.

MARC FABER VIEWS

ENJOY THE LINK!

http://pragcap.com/gloom-doom-and-chances-of-a-boom

TATA TEA

TATA TEA WAS RECOMMENDED AT 870.

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/10/tata-tea.html

IT IS 1025 TODAY.

CHEERS!

SENSEX WEEKLY CHART- RSI AT CRITICAL ZONE

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED.