sensex as on 23.06.09

look at the chart attached . we are at a critical stage for market.

if we r in positive tomorrow we can see an upmove starting

and if we break trendline we can see more correction.

MARKET OPTIONS

today we have broken 14180 and made low of 14016 and bounced from there.

we were observing downward channel in sensex and we broke out yesterday and we went upto 14668 and revrsed from there. actually if we look at nifty chart we have just resisted from downward channel resistance line.

yesterday also we had taken support on 34 dma of nifty.

 

i have tried to make 5 sub waves  of this move from top of 15600.

 

15600-14621= 979

14621-15022= 401

15022-14180= 842

14180-14668= 448

14668-14016= 652

15600 to 14016 is a fall of 1584 points.which is apprx 10% from top.and 21% of rise from 8047 to 15600.

what cld be next direction of market?

 

i have thought two options

 

FIRST OPTION:

if we have completed major correction at 8047 MAJOR A then

8047 to 15600 Ba

15600 to 14016 Bb-a

14016 to ? a lower top then 15600 Bb-b

lower top to downward again as Bb-c

followed by upmove as Bc

 

SECOND : (BULLISH OPTION)

 

if we have completed major correctionat 7697 then sub wave counts of upmove

 

7697-10945

10945-8047

8047-15600

15600-14016

14016-? a new high than 15600

BREAK OUT FROM DOWNWARD CHANNEL IN NIFTY WILL CONFIRM THE VIEW.