we have crossed 61.8% retracement lvl of fall from recent top of 14931 to 13500 and moved ahead and we are closer to recent top.as mentioned in last update now we will be in last part of upmove from 8k.we r in uptrend for 12 weeks ,next week 13th a fibo no.we r in uptrend for 7 months, june will be 8th month since bottom,again a fibo no.
daily rsi near 73.weekly rsi near 74.so we r getting OB. so risk reward ratio not in favour of buying for short - medium term.so better to book profits in all rises in coming days or to trade intraday only so we r not stuck with high priced shares.or move to low beta stocks in fmcg or pharma sectors like colgate,hul,itc,glaxo pharma,cipla.
as mentioned in last mail now 14931/15107/15580/16k. will be very very strong resistances.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Friday, May 29, 2009
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
mkt bounces from support near 13500
market has taken support near low open level of 18/05/09. it was 13479.i had mentioned abt this pattern in mail
http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/05/watch-lvls-of-1347913300.html . more over i had posted trendline chart yesterday.there also support was coming around 13500. with help of positive world mkts we have bounced today .we corrected by 1412 points from top of 14931. 50% and 61.8% retracement lvls come at 14225/14392 respectively.today's high was 14123.
if we cross14392 also and move ahead then we can assume that this upmove started from 8047 is not completed and we will cross
14931 and we can end 5th and final sub wave of 5th sub wave of move started from 8047 in coming days. we can see strong resistance at 14931/15107/15580 and 16000.
if we revrse from any of the retracement lvls mentioned above 14225/14392 then we can see further weakness and correction taking us below 13500 .
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
market status
i will put it in different way. at present over all 3 different scenarios are feasible.
bearish : we are correcting in A-B-C pattern. we have completed major A at 7697, we have completed B at 14931 or we will see little higher top betn 14931 -16k and complete B and we will see major C making new low or double bottom before going for a fresh bull run.
bullish : we have completed total correction in 5 wave pattern and we are in new bull run and we will see levels higher then 21206.
optimum : we are correcting either in A-B-C or A-B-C-D-E pattern. we have completed A, we are on B. Ba upward completed at 14931,we are on Bb downward. on completeing Bb we will go for Bc upward again and that will be a very good time time to book profits and geneartion of cash.bcz we will see C wave dnward after that.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Spandan waves updates
Dear all,
Updates on 24/05/2009
Last time I gave two different presentations and gave a view that if we cross 12650, we should consider that we are on B wave which retraces entire downmove from 21206 to 7697 by 50%.
The targets were also given as 13070/14600 and 16200 (Approximately)
We have already seen 50% target at 14930 (crossed 14650 but didn't close for 3 days above it)
Currently we are reversing and that could be it's major subwave called "b" wave. (Bb)
It has three waves, a, b and c and we have already seen a part of "a" wave to 13750 or so.
Currently we may be on a small upwave within a downwave. The downwave
may last for 2 to 4 weeks. (Roughly)
We may stop at either
1 12315
2 11500
3 10700
Basically it is an intermediate opportuntiy to BUY.
But beware, the next upmove called B-c may not allow most of us to sell. Sentiments would grip the MIND. Remember my words please.
Alternatively we may go higher right now, re-test 14600 again , go bit further up to 15300/15700 and then after fall to one of these above levels.
Once we complete the downmove, we may not only re-test 14600/14930 but
also march on to see 16200. There is a slim chance to see even close to 18000 (17800/17900 band)as a 76.8% ratio.
If we touch 10700, I strongly believe that one must take opportunity not to build a ST potfolio but also look for an opportunity to build a LT one.
Basically market is still very much a "BUY ON DECLINES".
======================================================
Please understand that all forecasts can go wrong so make take your own decision.
Best wishes,
Spandan Joshi
The targets were also given as 13070/14600 and 16200 (Approximately)
We have already seen 50% target at 14930 (crossed 14650 but didn't close for 3 days above it)
Currently we are reversing and that could be it's major subwave called "b" wave. (Bb)
It has three waves, a, b and c and we have already seen a part of "a" wave to 13750 or so.
Currently we may be on a small upwave within a downwave. The downwave
may last for 2 to 4 weeks. (Roughly)
We may stop at either
1 12315
2 11500
3 10700
Basically it is an intermediate opportuntiy to BUY.
But beware, the next upmove called B-c may not allow most of us to sell. Sentiments would grip the MIND. Remember my words please.
Alternatively we may go higher right now, re-test 14600 again , go bit further up to 15300/15700 and then after fall to one of these above levels.
Once we complete the downmove, we may not only re-test 14600/14930 but
also march on to see 16200. There is a slim chance to see even close to 18000 (17800/17900 band)as a 76.8% ratio.
If we touch 10700, I strongly believe that one must take opportunity not to build a ST potfolio but also look for an opportunity to build a LT one.
Basically market is still very much a "BUY ON DECLINES".
======================================================
Please understand that all forecasts can go wrong so make take your own decision.
Best wishes,
Spandan Joshi
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Fwd: sandip sabharwal : PANIC BUYING
kindly go thru link given below. interesting article.
Blog: sandip sabharwal
Post: PANIC BUYING
Link: http://sandipsabharwal.blogspot.com/2009/05/panic-buying.html
Blog: sandip sabharwal
Post: PANIC BUYING
Link: http://sandipsabharwal.blogspot.com/2009/05/panic-buying.html
STOCK FOR SHORT TERM
STOCK FOR SHORT TERM
BUY LAKSHMI OVERSEAS CMP 80.3
SCRIP CODE ON BSE 519570.
STOP LOSS RS. 70.
TARGET 100.
BUY LAKSHMI OVERSEAS CMP 80.3
SCRIP CODE ON BSE 519570.
STOP LOSS RS. 70.
TARGET 100.
Friday, May 22, 2009
SPANDAN WAVES AS ON 18.05.09 EDITTED
i had posted chart but Spandan's imp comments were missed out. i have added them in original post also. posting it again with his comments.
Dear all,
My comments on latest Elliot Waves.
1. It is very clear that we are now on the alternate wave count. The broader cycle is A-B-C wave. The fall from 21200 to 7697 was the A wave. We are now in the B up move which is a ferocious up move which will cause people to forget the bear market is over.
2. B up move can take us to 13100, 14600 and max 16200. This should peak out sometime in August. B wil consist of 3 waves A-B-C. We are now at B-A-5 (or 3). The last upmove is the most violent.
3. We will have a small dip in B-b which can take us anywhere between 9900 - 10700 range. This will be followed by B-C which takes us to 16200.
4.Post this we will have the last C wave with min targets of 10700-9250. The bottom could be in place by November.
This fits in with the fundamental analysis also. The B wave of the bear mkt rally makes people forget all is well. It brings in fresh people to buy at tops.
Thanks,
Spandan Joshi
Thursday, May 21, 2009
watch lvls of 13479/13300
recently we are following a typical pattern in mkt.we see a consolidation period in a range and we break from range with a gap opening and after moving up again we are going for consolidation in a range.we have seen good support around 10700 and 11600.after testing top of 14931 we are correcting.now where we can get support?
we had huge gap opening on monday post election results and low on monday was 13479 creating a gap betn 12300-13479.so now we can get first support near 13479.
if we look at retrcement lvls of move from 11621-14931, 38.2/50/61.8and 80% lvls are 13673/13276/12885 and 12283.we had seen 13700 today, next support at 13276. which is near 13479.
if we look at retrcement lvls of total move from 8047 to 14931 23.6/38.2 and 50% lvls are 13306/12315 and 11489.
so first lvl of 13306 is near 13479.
we can see good support betn 13500 and 13300.after that gap of 12300-13500 is to be seen . 12300 becomes next strong support.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
GDL ON VERGE OF BREAK OUT
look at chart of GDL. it is on verge a of break out from a long term trendline.
Pankaj Shah
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
market tested 14931 before selling off
it seems that market have completed its first leg of upmove started from 8047 at 14931 today. following days will confirm it.
it has been a hughe run up of 6884 and out of it 2600 point rise was done in last two trading days.now we can see cooling off in large caps who have run up very fast, so i expect profit booking in large cap stocks and upmove can be seen in selected mid cap stocks.
SPANDAN WAVES
LOOK AT SPANDAN'S WAVES UPDATE AS ON 18.05.09
Dear all, My comments on latest Elliot Waves.
1. It is very clear that we are now on the alternate wave count. The broader cycle is A-B-C wave. The fall from 21200 to 7697 was the A wave. We are now in the B up move which is a ferocious up move which will cause people to forget the bear market is over.
2. B up move can take us to 13100, 14600 and max 16200. This should peak out sometime in August. B wil consist of 3 waves A-B-C. We are now at B-A-5 (or 3). The last upmove is the most violent.
3. We will have a small dip in B-b which can take us anywhere between 9900 - 10700 range. This will be followed by B-C which takes us to 16200.
4.Post this we will have the last C wave with min targets of 10700-9250. The bottom could be in place by November.
This fits in with the fundamental analysis also. The B wave of the bear mkt rally makes people forget all is well. It brings in fresh people to buy at tops.
Thanks, Spandan Joshi
pankaj564.blogspot.com
Monday, May 18, 2009
BLOG OF VIPUL SHAH
i have added a link of blog of Vipul Shah, my technical analysis guru.he is very good analyst. he was concentrating on technicals in past and now he is focusing on fundamental analysis.
take the benefit of his analysis.
take the benefit of his analysis.
EUPHORIA IN MKT : DONT BUY WITH LEFT OUT FEELING
mkt is already 10.7 % up and trading is halted. actually it has hit 2 circuits, bcz of base of march qtr closing.
now everbody is feeling LEFT OUT as 'LEFTS" are LEFT OUT from govt.we shd not be crazy to buy in this euphoria. wait for some cooling off. world mkts r correcting now. after this euphoria we will be back to normal business in line with global mkts.
Pankaj Shah
Sunday, May 17, 2009
MARKET AFTER ELECTION RESULTS
Indian voters are matured than politicians have expected and have given more seats than UPA had expected. we will be having more stable govt which has minimum black mailers.we can have reforms implemented easily.
markets were moving in a band of 11621-12272 since last 10 days with -ve divergence.
looking at euphoric sentiment post results we can have a gap up opening
which can be as high as 5%.
break out from barrier of 12272 can take us upto 12857 (38.2% of fall from 21206 to 7697) after crossing 12568(61.8% of fall from 15580 to 7697).more over crossing of 12568 will open the gates for 14500/16000 (50 and 61.8 % of fall from 21206 to 7697) in coming days.
if a big gap up opening is seen , we shd utilise to sell and book profits. we have seen no of gaps so far and this can be an exahustion gap and we can see trend reversal.buying at this lvl will not be favourable in short term.
200 day moving averages will now become good support areas to invest.
Pankaj Shah
markets were moving in a band of 11621-12272 since last 10 days with -ve divergence.
looking at euphoric sentiment post results we can have a gap up opening
which can be as high as 5%.
break out from barrier of 12272 can take us upto 12857 (38.2% of fall from 21206 to 7697) after crossing 12568(61.8% of fall from 15580 to 7697).more over crossing of 12568 will open the gates for 14500/16000 (50 and 61.8 % of fall from 21206 to 7697) in coming days.
if a big gap up opening is seen , we shd utilise to sell and book profits. we have seen no of gaps so far and this can be an exahustion gap and we can see trend reversal.buying at this lvl will not be favourable in short term.
200 day moving averages will now become good support areas to invest.
Pankaj Shah
Thursday, May 14, 2009
TREND LINE BROKEN
WE HAVE BROKEN TREND LINE WHICH WAS GIVING SUPPORT SINCE 6/03/09 FROM LVL OF 8047. NOW RANGE OF 11621-12272 HAS BECOME CRUCIAL FOR MKT. BREAK OUT FROM THIS RANGE WILL GIVE SHARP MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION OF APPRX 650 POINTS.
PANKAJ SHAH
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
ALERT: WE ARE AT 61.8% BARRIER
I give you here some retracement data since we made top of 21206 in jan 2008
first pull back after fall from 21206 to 15332 was up to 18835 61%
second pull back after fall from 18835 to 14677 was up to 17735 47%
third pull back after fall from 17735 to 12514 was upto 15580 59%
fourth pull back after fall from 15580 to 7697 is upto 12272 so far 58%
we are up by 59% from bottom of 7697.
we have faced sell off from this area twice, first on 6/5/09 and today again we faced sell off.
market will show strength only on crossing this strong resistance zone.
election results will be out on 16/05/09.
keep range of 11600-12272 in mind, on breaking 11600 we can see correction of whole upmove.
Pankaj Shah
first pull back after fall from 21206 to 15332 was up to 18835 61%
second pull back after fall from 18835 to 14677 was up to 17735 47%
third pull back after fall from 17735 to 12514 was upto 15580 59%
fourth pull back after fall from 15580 to 7697 is upto 12272 so far 58%
we are up by 59% from bottom of 7697.
we have faced sell off from this area twice, first on 6/5/09 and today again we faced sell off.
market will show strength only on crossing this strong resistance zone.
election results will be out on 16/05/09.
keep range of 11600-12272 in mind, on breaking 11600 we can see correction of whole upmove.
Pankaj Shah
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Fwd: SENSEX 12 MAY
forwarding one more chart from Inder Bhatia.
Pankaj Shah
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Inder Bhatia <inder.mbhatia@gmail.com>
Date: 12 May 2009 20:03
Subject: SENSEX 13 MAY
To: Pankaj shah <pankaj564@gmail.com>
--
The easiest way to make ourselves healthy is to see that others are healthy, and the easiest way to make ourselves happy is to see that others are happy - Swami Vivekananda
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Inder Bhatia <inder.mbhatia@gmail.com>
Date: 12 May 2009 20:03
Subject: SENSEX 13 MAY
To: Pankaj shah <pankaj564@gmail.com>
--
The easiest way to make ourselves healthy is to see that others are healthy, and the easiest way to make ourselves happy is to see that others are happy - Swami Vivekananda
Fwd: sensex 11may
forwarding interesting chart from Inder Bhatia.
enjoy.
Pankaj Shah
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Inder Bhatia <inder.mbhatia@gmail.com>
Date: 11 May 2009 18:12
Subject: sensex 11may
To: Pankaj shah <pankaj564@gmail.com>
--
The easiest way to make ourselves healthy is to see that others are healthy, and the easiest way to make ourselves happy is to see that others are happy - Swami Vivekananda
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Inder Bhatia <inder.mbhatia@gmail.com>
Date: 11 May 2009 18:12
Subject: sensex 11may
To: Pankaj shah <pankaj564@gmail.com>
--
The easiest way to make ourselves healthy is to see that others are healthy, and the easiest way to make ourselves happy is to see that others are happy - Swami Vivekananda
Monday, May 11, 2009
trend line support tested
--
The easiest way to make ourselves healthy is to see that others are healthy, and the easiest way to make ourselves happy is to see that others are happy - Swami Vivekananda
Friday, May 8, 2009
Fwd: Fw: [ISG:141681] blog
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: ekam ber <ekamber@gmail.com>
Date: 2009/5/8
Subject: Fw: [ISG:141681] blog
To: pankaj564@gmail.com
From: ekam ber <ekamber@gmail.com>
Date: 2009/5/8
Subject: Fw: [ISG:141681] blog
To: pankaj564@gmail.com
dear pankaj ji
Wish you all the best and a grand success of your blog. I will surely post my comments by the weekend .
with regards
ekamber
5 day chart as on 8.05.09
--
The easiest way to make ourselves healthy is to see that others are healthy, and the easiest way to make ourselves happy is to see that others are happy - Swami Vivekananda
Re: market topped out at 12272 ?
Thanks, Pankaj for consolidating all the analysis at a centralized place which is easily accessible.
Though market is set for correction, mid caps are still shooting up.
Also, with the recent economic data turning positive and also the budget session set to be in June-July - there will be certain sectors and companies which will do good and these are bound to be good pick in the next correction.
If time permits and also if you have access to data - can a sector wise future performance forecast along with nifty/sensex outlook be assembled on your blog.
This is just a suggestion and certainly everyone will benefit (including me) :-)
Thanks,
Sudhir
On Fri, May 8, 2009 at 4:16 PM, Pankaj shah <pankaj564@gmail.com> wrote:
looking at today's market i feel there is a good probability that we might have completed 5th wave on 6/05/09 at 12272/3717.
we have broken 11899 which lvl i was considering as first warning.
gann turning days were from 4/5/09 to 7/05/09 with high and low of 12272/11635. so even by that count if we break 11635 that will also lead towards coorection.
more over there was a gap at 11430-11635 on 4/05/09 that will be a support. more over in candle stic chart also we will be getting support around 11500.
if we look at weekly charts we have a gap 11492-11635. if we open gap down on monday below 11635 it will be a perfect island reversal, a bearish signal.
let us c. what happens next week.Pankaj Shah
market topped out at 12272 ?
looking at today's market i feel there is a good probability that we might have completed 5th wave on 6/05/09 at 12272/3717.
we have broken 11899 which lvl i was considering as first warning.
gann turning days were from 4/5/09 to 7/05/09 with high and low of 12272/11635. so even by that count if we break 11635 that will also lead towards coorection.
more over there was a gap at 11430-11635 on 4/05/09 that will be a support. more over in candle stic chart also we will be getting support around 11500.
if we look at weekly charts we have a gap 11492-11635. if we open gap down on monday below 11635 it will be a perfect island reversal, a bearish signal.
let us c. what happens next week.
we have broken 11899 which lvl i was considering as first warning.
gann turning days were from 4/5/09 to 7/05/09 with high and low of 12272/11635. so even by that count if we break 11635 that will also lead towards coorection.
more over there was a gap at 11430-11635 on 4/05/09 that will be a support. more over in candle stic chart also we will be getting support around 11500.
if we look at weekly charts we have a gap 11492-11635. if we open gap down on monday below 11635 it will be a perfect island reversal, a bearish signal.
let us c. what happens next week.
Pankaj Shah
market near critical support 11900
market is very close to critical support at 11900.if it is violated be cautious.
gann turning days were from 4/5/09 to 7/05/09. high and lows of these days are 12272 and 11635.
Pankaj Shah
gann turning days were from 4/5/09 to 7/05/09. high and lows of these days are 12272 and 11635.
Pankaj Shah
blog
Dear Friends,
i have been sending mails sincelong. no of friends has advised me to start blog to make it more userfriendly.
i have tried to do so.just view it and give yr views and comments to improvise it.
blog address:
i have put some useful links on it.
INVESTMENT SUPER GROWTH : its a nice forum for invsetors who want to create wealth. it is owned by Kukkuji and is having more than 8000 members. those who r not members, i advise them to be members and to have very good information abt investment.
NIFTY CHART: this link takes us to nifty daily chart by default.we can use it for intraday also.we can use it for technical analysis of stocks also.
SENSEX CHART ; this link takes us to bse sensex intraday by default, can be used for daily, weekly, monthly charts for sensex and stocks.
VOLUME; this link takes us to moneycontrol .com site where we can see change in average volumes. it will help to take buying decisions in break outs.
BLOGS; i have put links to blogs of INDER BHATIA and NOORESHJI which will be useful.
WORLD MARKETS: this link takes us to world markets
YAHOO 5 day chart : this link shows chart of last 5 days which will help to short term traders
YAHOO sensex chart: it is a sensex chart on yahoo finance. log chart facility is available here.
Pankaj Shah
Thursday, May 7, 2009
wave count as on 6.05.09
have a look at chart attached which shows wave count as on 6.05.09
Pankaj Shah
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
indian economy
interesting article from Yahoo.finance.com
*************************************************************************
NEW DELHI, May 6 (Reuters) - India's economy, which has been hit harder than expected by the global recession, may be on the path to recovery, some recent data suggests.
Asia's third-largest economy is expected to have grown less than 7 percent in 2008/09, sharply lower than the expansion of 9 percent or in each of the previous three fiscal years, and is poised to expand at the same pace in the fiscal year ending March 2010.
Some analysts say the robust growth in steel and cement sales as well as in manufacturing in recent months showed the worst maybe over for the economy.
The following looks at the growth outlook for the South Asian economy and the pace of its economic recovery.
WHAT EVIDENCE IS THERE THAT WORST MAY BE OVER FOR THE INDIAN ECONOMY?
A slew of data in recent weeks has shown that a tentative recovery is taking shape. The ABN AMRO Bank purchasing managers' index (PMI) <INPMI=ECI> based on a survey of 500 companies, rose to 53.3 in April from March's 49.5, climbing above the threshold of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
This was the first expansion in factory output in five months and showed demand in the economy is returning.
Data also signalled that demand in India's hinterland is firm and is supporting a vast expanse of the economy. Cement sales have grown at near double-digit rates since November, consumer goods sales have seen strong support from rural markets, while auto demand has firmed after a disastrous December quarter.
Wholesale price inflation shows demand has not fallen as anticipated and prices were holding firm.
Industrial output, which accounts for nearly a quarter of India's gross domestic product, has shown signs of revival after a dismal March quarter. January's initially reported fall was revised to a rise of 0.4 percent.
Economists said stimulus packages announced by the government since late last year, along with aggressive policy easing by the central bank, look to be making an impact given improved car sales and uptrend in cement and steel demand.
They also say robust performance of consumer goods and capital goods, a key barometer of activity, in the February industrial output report showed that there is demand.
For a graphic please see here
Analyst say savings and investment rates, which have reached close to 40 percent due to the structural changes in the economy, would enable it to sustain an investment rate of 35 percent despite lower capital inflows.
The main stock index .BSESN has rebounded more than half from its 2009 trough in early March. Foreigners bought $1.5 billion worth of shares in April and another $296 million on Monday, after heavy outflows in January and February.
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR GDP GROWTH IN 2009/10?
Domestic ratings agency ICRA says the economy is likely to grow 6.5 to 7.5 percent in 2009/10 if the global economy comes out of the slump later this year and as government stimulus starts feeding into the broader economy.
The central bank has forecast 6 percent expansion in Asia's third-largest economy but private analysts have pegged growth lower than that. Any growth below below 6 percent would increase unemployment.
WHAT ARE ANALYSTS SAYING ABOUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY?
Rajeev Malik, economist with Macquarie Securities says the largely domestically driven economy will begin to recover palpably from mid-year onwards. "The double-cyclinder fiscal and monetary response has been aggressive and already paying dividends."
Investment bank UBS said in a research note that its lead economic indicator had climbed for three months in a row which signalled a strong likelihood of an upturn in industrial activity by June.
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, economist at HSBC, wrote in a research report that there were a number of reasons to be positive about India's growth prospects.
"Individually, none of them are hugely powerful, but collectively they should drive a recovery later this year which is likely to gain momentum in 2010."
IS THERE DATA STILL SUGGESTING FURTHER DETERIORATION? There is still some data which shows that the global slowdown has taken a heavy toll. Exports declined by a third in March to $11.5 billion, its sixth straight monthly fall and economists say the global economic slump would further dent Indian firms' foreign sales in the months ahead.
Consumer prices still remain elevated and the central bank said inflation based on various consumer price indices continues to be near double digits, reflecting a firm trend in food prices.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS AHEAD THAT MAY HURT GROWTH?
Political uncertainity remains a short-term risk.
Emergence of a weak coalition could lead to policy limbo, which in turn may hurt the economy.
The high fiscal deficit of central and state governments, which according to some observers has reached nearly 10 percent of gross domestic product, could prove to be an obstacle to growth and undermine the central bank's aggressive rate cuts. (Editing by Jan Dahinten)
--
PLEASE VOTE TO ELECT BEST CANDIDATE OR TO STOP WORST CANDIDATE GETTING ELECTED
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Monday, May 4, 2009
market on fire
on breaking out from sideways consolidation market was on fire and as expected euphoric moves r seen more in large caps today, to be followed in mid caps.
now we are very close to upper zone of 11600-12500 target given.
what next ;
we have again created a gap today at 11430-11635. we have crossed resistance of 11870, prev weekly top.next higher weekly top comes at 12285 to give resistance.
now today's gap will act as strong support 11430-11635. violation of it will confirm completion of this upmove.
we are very close to a gap unfilled in first week of oct 2008. it was at 12285-12473.
use rallies to generate cash or trade with strict stop losses.
we are having gann turning dates from 4/05/2009 to 7/05/2009.
keep watch on high n lows of this period.
Pankaj Shah
stocks to watch :
tata stl, sail, sesa goa,cesc,tornt power
now we are very close to upper zone of 11600-12500 target given.
what next ;
we have again created a gap today at 11430-11635. we have crossed resistance of 11870, prev weekly top.next higher weekly top comes at 12285 to give resistance.
now today's gap will act as strong support 11430-11635. violation of it will confirm completion of this upmove.
we are very close to a gap unfilled in first week of oct 2008. it was at 12285-12473.
use rallies to generate cash or trade with strict stop losses.
we are having gann turning dates from 4/05/2009 to 7/05/2009.
keep watch on high n lows of this period.
Pankaj Shah
stocks to watch :
tata stl, sail, sesa goa,cesc,tornt power
SPANDAN WAVE COUNTS
Dr Spandan joshi, is a good friend of mine and elliot analyst. he has been updating wave counts sucessfully since we have corrected from 21206. i attach herewith his last updates.i will try my best to update his views regularly.
Dear all,
Fresh Updates and analysis on 29/04/2009 ======================================= I wrote as follows 2 weeks ago on 13th April. =================================================
As I said before we may have seen C5 failure. It looks more likely that it departed at 8047.
Hence we shall be on a larger B wave. We have also discussed that as an "Multi-month up move" almost 3 months ago. We also said that it will even change the sentiments and people may forget the bear run for time being.
Alternative wave count indicates that we could be on C4. (In that case, we are about to tumble heavily from 11640 and around after one moderate dip in between)
Update: We did see a moderate dip from 11375 to 10720 ==========================================================
Contd.
Both C4 and B are up going and hence offer some help.
Targets for C4 can be ========================
10692 11638 12583
We have already seen 10692 and we are approaching 11638. In fact we have seen 11512.
I have not seen sensex going to 50%+ without breaking down for a major correction in between. I expect a same event to happen to sensex any time soon from either 11638 or 11812. This can be a decisive movement.
I.e. Selling is strongly recommended. Even if we go to 12583 which is 61.8% of retracement, one must remain sidelined. Buying can be banned.
I would not like to discuss alternative scenario now as it is not probably relevant to us.
Correction can take us to 9750/9900 or so. We shall discuss strategy when it comes.
Best wishes
Spandan Joshi
Dear all,
Fresh Updates and analysis on 29/04/2009 ======================================= I wrote as follows 2 weeks ago on 13th April. =================================================
As I said before we may have seen C5 failure. It looks more likely that it departed at 8047.
Hence we shall be on a larger B wave. We have also discussed that as an "Multi-month up move" almost 3 months ago. We also said that it will even change the sentiments and people may forget the bear run for time being.
Alternative wave count indicates that we could be on C4. (In that case, we are about to tumble heavily from 11640 and around after one moderate dip in between)
Update: We did see a moderate dip from 11375 to 10720 ==========================================================
Contd.
Both C4 and B are up going and hence offer some help.
Targets for C4 can be ========================
10692 11638 12583
We have already seen 10692 and we are approaching 11638. In fact we have seen 11512.
I have not seen sensex going to 50%+ without breaking down for a major correction in between. I expect a same event to happen to sensex any time soon from either 11638 or 11812. This can be a decisive movement.
I.e. Selling is strongly recommended. Even if we go to 12583 which is 61.8% of retracement, one must remain sidelined. Buying can be banned.
I would not like to discuss alternative scenario now as it is not probably relevant to us.
Correction can take us to 9750/9900 or so. We shall discuss strategy when it comes.
Best wishes
Spandan Joshi
GANN TURNING DAYS
4/5/09 to 7/05/09 are gann turning days. watch high and lows for these days.
stocks to watch today
L n T
Fintech
Pankaj Shah
stocks to watch today
L n T
Fintech
Pankaj Shah
Saturday, May 2, 2009
look at chart attched.10700 zone has given good support so far.it seems we have completed small correction as 4th wave which was apprx 25% of last upwave from 8867 to 11367.keep strict stop loss for this view at 10716.on crossing 11367 we will be heading towards 11600-12500 area. today we have seen good recovery in metal stocks. buy sail in dips, cmp 115, target 132, stop loss 105.
Pankaj Shah
views given on 25/04/09
we have taken good support in 10700/3300 zone and started moving up.we have reached very close to recent top of 11367 at 11363. closing is higher then that day.
supports: 10700/3300 and second zone is 10200/3150.
since we have crossed 10945 in last upmove now we will consider retrcements from top made before that, 15580 and low was 7697. retrcement lvls of 50%/61.8% comes at 11638 and 12568.if we consider on closing basis they come 11807 and 12679200 week mov avg is around 12700.
last time we cld not close above 200 dma , now we have closed above 200dma/ema. it has to sustain above that for few days.
before top of 10945 previous weekly tops were 11870 and 12285 which may work as resistance in coming days.
election will be over on 13/5 and results will be out on 16/5. so our stretegy shd be to generate cash gradually in this upmove bcz we have moved from 8047 and till date no major correction has come,mkt may cool off post results and correction can be deeper.coming 2 weeks may be volatile and euphoric also bcz of rise in retail participation with left out feeling and switching over from bearish to bullish mindset.we see excess moves in both directions and mkts get strecthed from fair valuations.
Pankaj Shah
finally we have crossed 10470 also today which level was observed since long for confirmation.now it seems on crossing next barrier at 10945 we are heading towards area of 11200-11400.on log chart downward sloping trendline will give resistance in area near 11200-11400.200days ema is around 11215 and 200 days sma for sensex at 11384 .
Pankaj Shah
मित्रो हमने निचे आती हुई ट्रेंड लाइन को क्रॉस कर लिया है.इसके साथ तीन चार्ट भेजे है.आगेकी चाल कैसी हो सकती है.bow tie diametric को विवेक पाटिल जी काफी समयसे दिखा रहें है.मैंने उसमे उल्टा head and shoulder पैटर्न बनाया है .हम उसकी नेक्क लाइन पर है.इसके हिसाबसे आनेवाले दिनोमे हम थोडा correction देख सकते है जिसमे हम खरीदी कर सकते है.मेरे प्रिय मित्र स्पंदन ने अपनी प्रतिक्रिया भेजी है वोह चार्ट भी सामिल है
पंकज शाह
FRIENDS after a very very long time we saw a huge rally surprising mkt players whose mind set was expecting bearishness (incl me).lvl of 6500 is being discussed by all tom harry and dick.seems shorters are trapped today and short covering wth losses must be there.
first positives: today we have crossed 100dma and closed above it. so far after correcting from 21206 all the times we have reached around 100 dma we have corrected by 25-30 percent from there.let us c this time what happens. will we sustain above 100 dma?
today first time trend line connecting 7697 and 8631 which was giving strong resisatnce so far is crossed over and we have clsoed baove that t- line.
will we sustain above that t line? look at attached chart. today we have tested a line in rsi. that line has given strong resistance since top of 21206. yesterday i had mentioned abt it indicating that since it was not tested some bullishness is left out.let us c this time. will we sustain at this lvls. i had mentioned abt macd also still it is not crossed.
we have crossed downward channel after a long time and we have moved up by more than 80% of fall from 9725 to 8047, so we have think in different manner. now we shd look at retracement lvls of fall from 10470 to 8047. so far we have retraced by 58% of fall very close to 61.8% lvl at 9544.let us c.we will see abt waves after we complete this move.
we have filled gap at 9213-9279 which was unfilled since long.
what next?
for intra day charts we have to look at trend line connecting 10945 and 10470 will give resisatnce around 9700. and on closing basis chart we shd look at rectangle chart i had sent earlier.lvl wise technically any close above 10470 will reverse the trend from bearish to bullish.
i had mentioned abt gann turning day. today was gann turning day.last it was on 9/02/09 and 10/02/09.we saw intermediate high of 9725 in those days. normally these days levels work for apprx 40 dys.today's low of 9040 shd observed for any weakness or bearishness.any gap opening will invite correction bcz so far we had seen 3 gap openings so next gap opening on higher side will be inviting good correction.
so better to be on sideline for few days and let market decide where it wants to move.fight of bulls n bears will be at peak in coming 2/3 days since F n O expiry is on thursday.
Pankaj Shah
sensex resembelence
i have sent mail to my clients on 20/4/2009. i put it on my blog today.20/04/2009
Friends, as expected we have reached and got strong resistance in zone 11200-11400 and had seen some correction as mentioned.more over one gap was unfilled at 11257/11410 , that also gave resistance alongwith 200dma and sloping downward trend line. now since we have violated 10945 which gave support on friday so next support comes at 10470 prev top as well support on upward trend line seen so far.on violation of 10470 we can go near very strong support area near 10127.we have left big unfilled gap at 9921-10107 also.50% of rise from 8867-11367 comes at 10117. our stretegy shd be to buy when we see reversal from supports.buying shd be stock specific looking at reversal in individual scrips. i have attched two charts which is showing very good resemblence in moves when we made bottom at 2594 in 2001 and current bottom made at 8047. if we follow the same path we can move towards 12500 after some correction in coming days.more over values of sensex in 2000-2001 are resembeling with current values of nifty. Pankaj Shah
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)