IOC/HPCL AND BPCL SHOWING +VE DIVERGENCE

IOC/BPCL/HPCL SHOWING +VE DIVERGENCE.

GOOD FOR SHORT TERM TRADING

MARKET?

Market is very close to jan 2010 tops at 17790/5310. on weekly closing basis higher closes are seen.

 

in weekly charts we have just tested trend line in rsi chart which has been giving resistance since june 2009.

 

in daily charts rsi has started showing -ve divergence. price action required for weakness confirmation.

 

on crossing 17790 different resistance levles will come in play between 18k to 18.5k

 

80% retracement of total fall from 21206 to 7697 comes at 18504.

 

next week we will be having financial yr ending , we may see nav based actions.

 

I had sent one chart as a query to elliot experts on 9/2/010.

 

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHPYrr6IdEBjzQMJ6X02Tz8pOwcHDrdTMgf7ZWFX30Z6Tw3oOzQOBV4ubDoiDvR3eKn8XKFC8XUMYzRvdGC6kYr1umrOoouHra5rZeShPWVeXaHFLcMlICSfH9vUZSL_qQGwqxt-lVRASA/s1600-h/QUERY+TO+ELLIOT+WAVE+EXPERTS-772391.PNG

 

market has moved in direction shown as per chart.

 

 

I REVISE STOP LOSS TO 17337 FOR ALL LONG POSITIONS.

RPOWER INVERSE HEAD N SHOULDER

CHART ATTACHED.

Mirage Version 2.1 on 20th March 2010 at 00:30 Hours Dr Spandan Joshi

MIRAGE VERSION 2.1 ON 20/03/10 BY DR. SPANDAN JOSHI 

 This week, I went back to my original count that suggested a possibility of a C5-5 failure at 8047 when sensex rose from downward wedge.

 

From that point I changed my view to more bearish, i.e. considered as continued correction rather than counting subsequent waves as a part of fresh Bull Run waves. If I go back to my very original count (i.e. C5-5 failure and hence a new Bull wave structure), I shall make a fresh attempt to count as per original count as follows.

Diagram 1 shows Original count of C5 failure as per C5-5 failure followed by a new Bull Run. Diagram also shows probable wave count.

 

• Wave 1 from 8047 to 15600 and that is an upmove of 7553 points

 

• Wave 2 from 15600 to 13219 and that is a down fall of 2381 points

 

• Wave 2 was 31% of wave 1 which was close to Fibonacci ratio of 30%

 

• Wave 3 from 13219 to 17790 and that is of 4571 points

 

• Wave 3 was 61% of wave 1 and is close to Fibonacci ratio of 61.8%
• 
  

• Wave 4 from 17790 to 15652 and that is a down fall of 2138 points.

 

• Wave 4 was of 47% of wave 3 and that is close to Fibonacci ratio of 50%.

 

• Wave 5 has taken us to 17580 so far and is still in progress

 

• This could be the most bullish count I have ever made.

 

• Wave 5 has to be smaller than wave 3 as wave 3 can't be smallest of 1, 3 and 5.

 

• Hence wave 5 can be maximum 62% of wave 1 or 50% in a bearish case. 62% of wave 1 means it can take us to 18440 and 50% means it can take us to 17937.

 

• Overall 18100 come as per 76.4% of upmove of the entire fall from 21206 to 8047 which was a fall of 13159 points. (76.4% of that 13159 comes to 10,053)

Diagram 2 shows sub waves of 5^th Wave. We may currently be on 5-5-3. If 5^th wave has to be failed, we shall see 5-4 as a down move followed by further downfall, instead of

5-5. going up as a last up move. This is anticipation that my previous wave count didn't count 5^th wave well.

Elliott Wave Analysis

 

1 We may be on 5^th Wave of the Bull Run's 1^st wave. That should end within a month or so.

2 We may see a small downfall towards 17200/17100 to 16500 and a final spurt towards 17940 to 18500.

3 Once 5^th wave of the first Bull Run gets completed, we may see a down move towards 14.5 to 12K as per 2^nd wave. However we can only give precise targets once we see 5^th wave completed.

4 I feel 5^th wave may take a month or two and hence we may see a top between 20^th April to 20^th June 2010. Markets may correct in the second half of 2010 and continue to correct till the start of a new year. (Corrective Time forecasted as between April/May 2010 to January/March 2011)

Diagram 3 shows Volume divergences with negative RSI divergences since September/October 2009. However RSI shows daily readings. Monthly RSI has just touched the trend line yesterday. If there has to be a reversal, it has to be imminent; else RSI will break the trend line (Weekly and daily) upwards.

Overall Analysis

 

Elliott wave Based Analysis

 

1 We may be on 5^th Wave of the Bull Run's 1^st wave. That should end within a month or so.

2 We may see a small downfall towards 17200/17100 to 16500 and a final spurt towards 17940 to 18500.

3 Once 5^th wave of the first Bull Run gets completed, we may see a down move towards 14.5 to 12K as per 2^nd wave. However we can only give precise targets once we see 5^th wave completed.

4 I feel 5^th wave may take a month or two and hence we may see a top between 20^th April to 20^th June 2010. Markets may correct in the second half of 2010 and continue to correct till the start of a new year. (Corrective Time forecasted as between April/May 2010 to January/March 2011)

 

PE Ratio Based analysis

 

PE is currently 22. PE based analysis shows; it may take one full year after it makes a top, which was in October 2009. Time comes to October 2010 for it to correct to a range between 16.5 to 12.5.

 

Ted Spread Based Analysis

 

1 Ted Spread in immediate future can move north and equities may take a direct hit. In odd cases, if it goes down then there can be a last down move in Ted spread but it looks like it can not move south for a very long time as it has made numerous bottoms already.

 

2 A rise of Ted spread to 23/25 will give markets a knee jerk reaction. Ted spread over 50 means tough times ahead for markets. I put 3 to 4 months before it makes a final bottom and rise decisively as per my Elliott's count on Ted Spread chart. That brings June/July 2010 in play.

 

Vix Based Analysis

 

Vix chart shows early signs of Vix shooting up after making several bottoms recently. We have shown from the above chart that whenever Vix goes up to 40, market usually goes south. However current Vix is too low at 17 and will take a long time to reach 23/25 level, followed by 40 to upset markets. I put 6 months for it to reach between 25 and 40 and that time brings us to August/September 2010.

 

Inflation Based Analysis

 

1 Once you make a very high base of Inflation, the very next year it makes a very low base and that is correlated by a great rally in equity.

 

However once a very low base is created like back in 2002 and 2009, inflation spikes 8/12/16 months then after and goes very high. That is correlated with a fall in equity markets. Such high and low base formations continue for 2.5 to 3.5 years till it settles somewhere in the middle and that allows equity to run smoothly , which then makes new highs as long as inflation remains in a normal channel.

 

2 Indian inflation started to rise in October/November 2007 and made a peak in October 2008 Markets witnessed a terrible fall during this entire time. . (It seems that there is a 4/5 months of time for a switch over, somehow) However market rallied then after and went up to 17K when inflation became negative in June/July 2009. . (It seems that there is a 4/5 months of time for a switch over, somehow) The markets will witness a very high inflation 12 months after it made a low base and that time comes during June/July 2010. A time frame between May to September 2009 was associated with a very low inflation and market rallied to take full advantage from 10K to 17K. Similarly a time frame between May 2010 to September 2010 can see a very high inflation and if the relationship quoted above is true, we may see a sharp fall in Indian equity markets during the same time.

 

Overall Analysis taking all parameters listed above

 

• A new Bull Run's 1^st wave is about to end.
• Upmove to 18500. A top is expected between March to June 2010.
• Upmove between 17900 to 18500
• Downfall in between is likely to 17100/16900
• A major fall looming then after reaching the top.
• A time period between April and October 2010 can be critically important for the fall.
• A bottom can be made late this year in October/November 2010 or January/march 2011.
• A fall can be of a much lesser magnitude then October 2008 fall as all parameters listed above are at historical low levels and can not upset markets to a great deal.
• After some serious consolidation then after, we may see Indian BSE sensex hitting 24 to 29 K first followed by 38/39K within 3 to 5 years. A very sharp upmove in the middle of 2011 will take markets to one of the above targets.

 

Wish you have a good luck.

 

Best Regards

 

Spandan Joshi

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actual mail contains more analysis which contains ted spread and ted spread analysis,dollar index analysis,vix analysis,inflation analysis with no of charts.

any one interested can send their email id, i will forward them.being a word file containing charts ,it is difficult to put it on blog.

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I WILL LIKE TO PUT A LINK OF MY OLD MAIL

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2010/02/query-to-elliot-wave-experts.html

SENSEX AS ON 19.3.10

RSI TRENDLINE IN WEEKLY CHART TESTED ON FRIDAY.

SENSEX

we are very close to rsi trendline in weekly chart.

crossover or reversal will indicate further moves.

UPDATES : MIRAGE 2.0 ANALYSIS BY DR. SPANDAN JOSHI

Dear Pankajbhai,   Regarding Mirage and technical analysis as per 2.0,   1 We have crossed 17362 however with very thin volumes. (12K only)   2 Regarding RSI, we have touched it just now at 17510.   3 Regarding my timing, we have gone just past 10th March + 2 days, i.e. 15th March.Susequently sensex crossed 17362 on 16th March.   4 Regarding 100 EMA, we have been closing 50% days over 100 EMA since we have been down or below it. (21 days?, I can't remember) (Now we are up for 11 days)   5 Regarding Fibonacci, we have crossed 80% milestone of the entire down fall.   Hence all parameters fall in to a new upmove from 15652 unless,   AAA:  We form a bear candle, i.e. go above yesterday's close, like just now at 17510 but close below yesterday's close with slightly higher volumes,   BBB: We do not close above 17362 odd levels greater than 3 days.   CCC: We break 16900 very very soon and with heavy volumes. (I.e. within next week)    DDD: We , Like Daily Bear candle, also form a weekly bear candle, I.e. start with higher than previous week's levels and end below it.   EEE The Odds will be in favour of a fresh new up move if, we close 3 days above 17370 as well as week to week based higher close too.   The only major difefrence this time is that Mid/Small caps are not moving much while heavy weights are.   We shall know by end of today or by tomorrow where we are.   Regards   Spandan

sensex

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

MARKET?

last week i mentioned that we are reaching trend decider 80% retracement levels (of recent fall from 17790 to 15652) 17362/5183. but last week was ranged bound and we moved in small range of 17028 to 17245.till we have not crossed these levels . rsi trendline is also not crossed. in last week gap area 17000-17025 has given good support.

on positive side still we are trading above 50dma/100 dma.we have maintained higher high and higher low pattern on weekly basis.


what next?

we may see some action on breaking last week's consolidation range 17028-17245.

break of 17028 will be the first sign of weakness.short term traders must keep it as stop loss.for medium term stop loss levels given last week at 50dma/100dma zone at 16800/5000 will be same.

reliance has shown some strength in last week after a long time. it can show further strength till it is closed above 1020.

being a heavy weightage share it is helping in maintaining indices levels.

******************************************************************************
UPDATE AS ON 16.3.10

RELIANCE ON FIRE ! 1071

CHEERS!

RELIANCE INVERSE H n S?

LOOK AT CHART
*******************************************************
UPDATE AS ON 16.3.10

RELIANCE HAS ACHIEVED TARGET ON INVERSE H N S

CHEERS!

+ve divergence in reliance ind?

views please on +ve divergence.

sensex in a range since last 7 months

sensex monthly chart is attached herewith. we are moving in a range of apprx 15500 to 17500.

frustating, boring , lackluster  consolidation!

MIRAGE 2.0 ANALYSIS BY DR. SPANDAN JOSHI

Please look at RSI trend. Has it broken the trend line? We shall know within 2/3 days, i.e. on 9^th or 10^th March. Look at the volumes as well. We shall check if they increase. Which ever the way market goes would be a trend for next week/month, for sure.

 

If you observe the trend line, you may notice that the upmove has a strong resistance at 17300/17400 level and that should met by 10^th March or so as per our time target previously discussed.

 

I wrote last weekend that : If "C-2-C" wave is same as "C-2-A" wave it comes to 900 points, i.e. 17075 + 900 points = 16975 and that comes to overall 62% upmove target of 16973. This is my preferred scenario at this moment. We have closed at 16994 on Friday the 5^th March 2010

 

The exact level comes to 17362 and we mustn't cross it even on intra-day basis. If we do, we have to assume that the wave count is wrong.

 

Last time we explained alternative scenario. However I am not very sure how to count 5^th of the 5^th. It looks still an odd wave to me and I have not much of a clue. 5-5 is labeled but I lack confidence as I can't count sub waves. One method is A-B and C where C is 62% of A. But that too look not very promising as sub wave A doesn't make much sense to me as far as further breakdown of it. So in short, 5-5 looks very much an un-explained wave. Hence I know that if my wave count goes wrong (Closing over 17362) what is the reason behind it.

 

So let us go from there. If 5-5 is completed we are already on A and then B. (2^nd wave and that has A, B and C)

 

If not we may continue to move up to possibly 17260 and then after to 18500 as per approximately 80% of the entire fall from 21200 to 7700. However I would refrain from buying as it could be a very last wave of the entire rally (Wave B or Wave 1)and usually I prefer to avoid buying on a very last wave simply because of greater chances of getting "Stuck".

 

 

 

 

SENSEX AS ON 5.3.10

COMMENTS ON CHART.
*******************************************
UPDATE AS ON 9.03.2010

TODAY WE HAVE STOPPED MAKING HIGHER TOPS AFTER 6 DAYS.

sensex as on 3.3.2010

CHART ATTACHED
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UPDATE AS ON 5.3.10

WE REACHED TODAY AT 17098, ALMOST TRAGET OF INVERSE H N S ACHIEVED.

Mirage Version 1.9 on 27/02/2010 by Dr. Spandan Joshi

As we discussed before, we suggested that sensex may have completed C1 and could be already on an upmove labeled as C2. 

C2 comes with three waves, C2-A, C2-B and C2-C. While A and C are upmove, B is a down move.  

I strongly feel that we may have seen C2-A and C2-B. (At 16075)

 Hence we may be on C-2-C wave which itself has five waves. (1 to 5)

Latest wave count can be defined as follows.

 C1 ended at 15652

C2-A ended at 16550

C2-B ended at 16075

C2-C in progress and has seen 16680 yesterday as a top.

 Discussion on Fibonacci levels

 C-1 Total fall from 17790 to 15652 as per C1=2138 Points

 C-2 Targeting 50% of the above 2138 points comes to 16721

C-2 Targeting 62% of the above 2138 points comes to 16973

 C2-A was from 15652 to 16550= 900 points (Rounded figure)

 C2-B was from 16550 to 16075 = 475 Points (52%, close to 50% upmove target as per Fibonacci level)

 C2-C has seen already a level of 16680 which is an upmove of 605 points.

 If "C-2-C" wave is same as "C-2-A" wave it comes to 900 points, i.e. 17075 + 900 points = 16975 and that comes to overall 62% upmove target of 16973. This is my preferred scenario at this moment.

 If we move up to only 62% of 900 points (C-2-A) then it comes to 558 points 16633. In such case we may have already seen the top.

 Discussion on "Time"

 We have taken 8 days to see A wave and 3 for B wave. We already have seen 5 days to see C wave. We may have 3 more days or so for its completion. (Or we may see 13 days in total means 8 more days or so) That means we may see top around 3^rd of March or 10^th of March 2010. (Plus or minus 2 days as per Intra-day adjustment)

 I feel once we finish a last upmove of this C2, (C2-C-5) we may slide heavily as per C3. Generally 3^rd wave always makes its mark. I expect it to cross 200 EMA. It comes with 5 giant waves. It makes a significant impact on market. It comes with fierce pace and velocity. Indeed it brings its own environment with it.

 Time wise I feel 10^th March to 20^th April may see tremendous downward velocity. This period must be watched carefully.

 Discussion on Alternative Scenario

 

If this was a Bull Run, we may see an end of correction by C. In such case we may have already seen A as well as B and we may see a very last down fall as per C wave. This is because our C1 becomes A and our C2 becomes B wave.

 Generally such Bull-run corrections are lesser in damaging and quick in nature. (2 to 3 months only instead of 6 to 8 months) In such case, we may be on Wave-2 of a new Bull run that might have started at 7697.

 Wave count can be as follows.

 Wave 1 = 7697 to 17790

Wave 2 = 17790 to 15652 so far.

 

• Wave 2-A = 17790 to 15652
• Wave 2-B = 15652 to 1680 and still going on
• Wave 2-C is pending.

Normally in such cases, C wave's length is 1.62% of A wave's length. Our A wave was of 2138 points and C wave can be 3463 points. This may bring sensex to 13237.

My analysis is completed.

Best Regards

Spandan Joshi