BEARS WHO ARE CALLING FOR A MARKET REVERSAL - DREAM ON

have a look at link.

Blog: sandip sabharwal
Post: BEARS WHO ARE CALLING FOR A MARKET REVERSAL - DREAM ON
Link: http://sandipsabharwal.blogspot.com/2009/10/bears-who-are-calling-for-market.html

DOW

DOW HAS ALSO CORRECTED HEAVILY IN LAST WEEK AND

 

IS POISED AT CRITICAL ZONE OF 50EMA AS SHOWN IN CHART.

****************************************************************
UPDATE ON 3.11.09 6 P.M.

DOW GAVE A STRONG BOUNCE. BUT TODAY ALL MKTS R WEAK. DOW TO FOLLOW WORLD MKTS AND TO TUMBLE AGAIN?

TATA TEA

LOOK AT CHART
**************************************************

SENSEX WAVE COUNT

LOOK AT THE LINK. I SHARED MY BULLISH VIEW WITH iLANGOJI AND HE HAS SENT CHART FOR SAME.

 

A BULLISH OPTION I HAVE DISCUUSED IN LAST 2 MAILS.

 

NOW WE CAN FOLLOW THIS VIEW WITH STRICT STOP LOSS OF YESTERDAY'S LOW 15994

 

 

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/2009/10/sensex-chart-by-pankaj.html

*****************************************************************************
UPDATE AT 4.00PM 30/10/2009

WITH HELP OF +VE GLOBAL MKTS WE OPENED UP AND WENT UPTO 16360 AND REVERSED FROM THERE.SO FIRST LVL SHOWN IN CHART OF CLOSE ABOVE 16375 NOT WORKED AND WE HAVE CORRECTED BELOW YESTERDAY'S LOW.SO BULLISH VIEW NOT TO BE CONSIDERED.

MORE OVER TODAY WEEKLY MACD HAS GIVEN SELL SIGNAL. SO BETTER TO SELL ON PULL BACK RALLIES

RCOM AS ON 29.10.09

LOOK AT CHART

 

ZEE NEWS

look at chart

5 DAY CHART/+VE DIVERGENCE

5 DAY CHART SHOWING +VE DIVERGENCE IN RSI AND MACD, WE CAN EXPECT BOUNCE FROM TODAY'S LOW LVLS.

***************************************************************************
WE SAW VERY GOOD BOUNCE FROM LOW LEVELS AND WE ALMOST COVERED FROM SUB 16K TO MORE THAN 16250+ BEFORE SELLING AGAIN.

MARKET?

LOOK AT CHART

***************************************************
UPDATE ON 29.10.09
MARKET TESTED 15994 TODAY AND BOUNCED BACK FROM THERE UPTO 16250 BEFORE SELLING WAS SEEN AGAIN.
AS SHOWN IN CHART IF WE BOUNCE FROM HERE AND UPMOVE IS SEEN THAT WILL BE BULLISH WAVE COUNT SHOWN IN DARK BROWN COLOR IN CHART.

STRICT STOP LOSS FOR BULLISH VIEW CAN BE KEPT AT 15994.

I am an investment counsellor and not a casino owner.

Adding Zeros

The lessons from a low-profile second-generation stockbroker who adds zeros
after his clients wealth, not put them through a zero-sum game

I am amazed when people get excited that a big institutional investor is
buying some stock in a big way. I have seen it in bond markets too. The
dealer will come in and say, Citi is buying, implying that if Citi is a
buyer, there has to be something to it. Nobody will say who the seller is.
Obviously, you cannot buy unless there is a seller. If stocks are worth
buying and everyone thinks so, then why is somebody selling, when all
research analysts think that it is good to buy? We always hear one side of
the story.

We never get to know the other side at all. Maybe it is the domestic trader
who keeps buying and warehousing when the prices are low and, as demand
picks up, he dumps it on an institutional buyer who, in turn, will dump it
on the retail buyer at some point. And the retail buyer, once having bought,
gets stuck. He either becomes a long-term investor or makes a quick exit
(profit or loss borne by him). So, stock markets are a zero-sum game. At
different points in time, different hands hold the parcel. Change in market
prices (which are a function of demand, supply and expectations) increase or
decrease the value of holdings. If you are a short-term trader, you actually
experience the pain or gain. If you are a long-term investor, you only see
changes in your asset value. Of course, you can also get your annual
dividends.

I always wonder at human frailty, when it comes to stock markets. There are
occasions when everyone agrees that, at some point, the markets are very
expensive. How many actually sell? Or how many actually go short on the
market at this stage? Surely, no one does this consistently. At some level,
you sell your shares. Do you again buy them when the market comes off? I
always wonder. No list of names of the worlds rich ever includes any
stock-trader. Warren Buffet has probably never sold much and what his fund
owns are significant chunks of many companies. Bill Gates owes his wealth to
one stockof the company he founded. This leads me to think that
stock-traders are not all that productive in what they do. They are part of
the make-believe world that the media creates for pulling in an audience.
Serious wealth has been perhaps made only by investors who keep hanging on
to their shares and not churn them like a mutual fund manager.

In this context, I recall meeting a stockbroker in Mangalore. He is carrying
on his fathers business and has a loyal clientele. He would advise people to
invest regularly (before systematic investment plan became a buzzword). He
would come out with an annual investment list of around 20 large-cap stocks,
dividing the money equally. He would not churn the portfolio at all, unless
there was a compelling reason to sell any stock. He would do an annual
review and, sometimes, he would add one or two stocks. He preferred to stick
to established names, with high emphasis on management quality and return on
equity. He had kept tabs on what the portfolio did. It generated a
compounded annual return of over 30% over 20 years, excluding dividends. His
churn was less than 5% of the portfolio, over 20 years! This return was
almost twice what the Sensex delivered in the same timeframe.

I quite liked the way he went about his business. Many of his clients were
second-generation clients! He never strayed from his approach. He also
refused to offer his clients any platform for trading in derivatives. His
view was very simple. I am an investment counsellor and not a casino owner.
He also eschewed the small-cap and mid-cap stocks. He said that he did not
have the resources to do homework on them. He did not want me to identify
him, unlike the top brokers who are always seeking to be on television. I
dedicate this column to this low-profile gentleman at Mangalore and wish him
the very best.

FKONCO

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

ADANI ENT TO DECLARE BONUS AND RIGHT SHARES

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/10/adani-ent.html

 

THIS CHART WAS SENT ON 16/10/09.

 

TODAY COMPANY HAS CALLED FOR A MEETING ON 30/10/09 FOR BONUS AND RIGHT SHARES

 

http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid={A8642277-E26A-4F45-A91D-D712E5D3B570}

 

CHEERS!

*******************************************************************
UPDATE AS ON 9.11.09

ADANI ENT ON FIRE!

IT TRADES ABOVE 950.

CHEERS!

NICE - Speech was delivered to the Class of 2006 at the IIM

This speech was delivered to the Class of 2006 at the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore on defining success by Subroto Bagchi CEO MindTree.


I was the last child of a small-time government servant, in a family of five brothers. My earliest memory of my father is as that of a District Employment Officer in Koraput, Orissa. It was, and remains as back of beyond as you can imagine. There was no electricity; no primary school nearby and water did not flow out of a tap. As a result, I did not go to school until the age of eight; I was home-schooled. My father used to get transferred every year. The family belongings fit into the back of a jeep – so the family moved from place to place and without any trouble, my Mother would set up an establishment and get us going. Raised by a widow who had come as a refugee from the then East Bengal, she was a matriculate when she married my Father.
My parents set the foundation of my life and the value system, which makes me what I am today and largely, defines what success means to me today.
As District Employment Officer, my father was given a jeep by the government. There was no garage in the Office, so the jeep was parked in our house. My father refused to use it to commute to the office. He told us that the jeep is an expensive resource given by the government- he reiterated to us that it was not "his jeep" but the government's jeep. Insisting that he would use it only to tour the interiors, he would walk to his office on normal days.. He also made sure that we never sat in the government jeep – we could sit in it only when it was stationary.
That was our early childhood lesson in governance – a lesson that corporate managers learn the hard way, some never do.
The driver of the jeep was treated with respect due to any other member of my Father's office. As small children, we were taught not to call him by his name. We had to use the suffix 'dada' whenever we were to refer to him in public or private. When I grew up to own a car and a driver by the name of Raju was appointed – I repeated the lesson to my two small daughters. They have, as a result, grown up to call Raju, 'Raju Uncle' – very different from many of their friends who refer to their family driver, as 'my driver'. When I hear that term from a school- or college-going person, I cringe.
To me, the lesson was significant – you treat small people with more respect than how you treat big people. It is more important to respect your subordinates than your superiors.
Our day used to start with the family huddling around my Mother's chulha – an earthen fire place she would build at each place of posting where she would cook for the family. There was neither gas, nor electrical stoves.The morning routine started with tea. As the brew was served, Father would ask us to read aloud the editorial page of The Statesman's 'muffosil' edition – delivered one day late. We did not understand much of what we were reading. But the ritual was meant for us to know that the world was larger than Koraput district and the English I speak today, despite having studied in an Oriya medium school, has to do with that routine. After reading the newspaper aloud, we were told to fold it neatly. Father taught us a simple lesson.
He used to say, "You should leave your newspaper and your toilet, the way you expect to find it". That lesson was about showing consideration to others. Business begins and ends with that simple precept.
Being small children, we were always enamored with advertisements in the newspaper for transistor radios – we did not have one. We saw other people having radios in their homes and each time there was an advertisement of Philips, Murphy or Bush radios, we would ask Father when we could get one. Each time, my Father would reply that we did not need one because he already had five radios – alluding to his five sons.
We also did not have a house of our own and would occasionally ask Father as to when, like others, we would live in our own house. He would give a similar reply," We do not need a house of our own. I already own five houses". His replies did not gladden our hearts in that instant.
Nonetheless, we learnt that it is important not to measure personal success and sense of well being through material possessions.
Government houses seldom came with fences. Mother and I collected twigs and built a small fence. After lunch, my Mother would never sleep. She would take her kitchen utensils and with those she and I would dig the rocky, white ant infested surrounding. We planted flowering bushes. The white ants destroyed them. My mother brought ash from her chulha and mixed it in the earth and we planted the seedlings all over again. This time, they bloomed. At that time, my father's transfer order came. A few neighbors told my mother why she was taking so much pain to beautify a government house, why she was planting seeds that would only benefit the next occupant. My mother replied that it did not matter to her that she would not see the flowers in full bloom. She said, "I have to create a bloom in a desert and whenever I am given a new place, I must leave it more beautiful than what I had inherited".
That was my first lesson in success. It is not about what you create for yourself, it is what you leave behind that defines success.
My mother began and galvanized the nation in to patriotic fervor. Other than reading out the newspaper to my mother, I had no clue about how I could be part of the action. So, after reading her the newspaper, every day I would land up near the University's water tank, which served the community. I would spend hours under it, imagining that there could be spies who would come to poison the water and I had to watch for them. I would daydream about catching one and how the next day, I would be featured in the newspaper. Unfortunately for me, the spies at war ignored the sleepy town of Bhubaneswar and I never got a chance to catch one in action. Yet, that act unlocked my imagination.
Imagination is everything. If we can imagine a future, we can create it, if we can create that future, others will live in it. That is the essence of success.
Over the next few years, my mother's eyesight dimmed but in me she created a larger vision, a vision with which I continue to see the world and, I sense, through my eyes, she was seeing too. As the next few years unfolded, her vision deteriorated and she was operated for cataract. I remember, when she returned after her operation and she saw my face clearly for the first time, she was astonished. She said, "Oh my God, I did not know you were so fair".. I remain mighty pleased with that adulation even till date. Within weeks of getting her sight back, she developed a corneal ulcer and, overnight, became blind in both eyes. That was 1969. She died in 2002. In all those 32 years of living with blindness, she never complained about her fate even once. Curious to know what she saw with blind eyes, I asked her once if she sees darkness. She replied, "No, I do not see darkness. I only see light even with my eyes closed". Until she was eighty years of age, she did her morning yoga everyday, swept her own room and washed her own clothes.
To me, success is about the sense of independence; it is about not seeing the world but seeing the light.
Over the many intervening years, I grew up, studied, joined the industry and began to carve my life's own journey. I began my life as a clerk in a government office, went on to become a Management Trainee with the DCM group and eventually found my life's calling with the IT industry when fourth generation computers came to India in 1981. Life took me places – I worked with outstanding people, challenging assignments and traveled all over the world.
In 1992, while I was posted in the US, I learnt that my father, living a retired life with my eldest brother, had suffered a third degree burn injury and was admitted in the Safderjung Hospital in Delhi. I flew back to attend to him – he remained for a few days in critical stage, bandaged from neck to toe. The Safderjung Hospital is a cockroach infested, dirty, inhuman place. The overworked, under-resourced sisters in the burn ward are both victims and perpetrators of dehumanized life at its worst. One morning, while attending to my Father, I realized that the blood bottle was empty and fearing that air would go into his vein, I asked the attending nurse to change it. She bluntly told me to do it myself. In that horrible theater of death, I was in pain and frustration and anger. Finally when she relented and came, my Father opened his eyes and murmured to her, "Why have you not gone home yet?" Here was a man on his deathbed but more concerned about the overworked nurse than his own state. I was stunned at his stoic self.
There I learnt that there is no limit to how concerned you can be for another human being and what the limit of inclusion is you can create.
My father died the next day. He was a man whose success was defined by his principles, his frugality, his universalism and his sense of inclusion.
Above all, he taught me that success is your ability to rise above your discomfort, whatever may be your current state. You can, if you want, raise your consciousness above your immediate surroundings. Success is not about building material comforts – the transistor that he never could buy or the house that he never owned. His success was about the legacy he left, the memetic continuity of his ideals that grew beyond the smallness of a ill-paid, unrecognized government servant's world.
My father was a fervent believer in the British Raj. He sincerely doubted the capability of the post-independence Indian political parties to govern the country. To him, the lowering of the Union Jack was a sad event. My Mother was the exact opposite. When Subhash Bose quit the Indian National Congress and came to Dacca, my mother, then a schoolgirl, garlanded him. She learnt to spin khadi and joined an underground movement that trained her in using daggers and swords. Consequently, our household saw diversity in the political outlook of the two. On major issues concerning the world, the Old Man and the Old Lady had differing opinions.
In them, we learnt the power of disagreements, of dialogue and the essence of living with diversity in thinking.
Success is not about the ability to create a definitive dogmatic end state; it is about the unfolding of thought processes, of dialogue and continuum.
Two years back, at the age of eighty-two, Mother had a paralytic stroke and was lying in a government hospital in Bhubaneswar. I flew down from the US where I was serving my second stint, to see her. I spent two weeks with her in the hospital as she remained in a paralytic state. She was neither getting better nor moving on. Eventually I had to return to work. While leaving her behind, I kissed her face. In that paralytic state and a garbled voice, she said,
"Why are you kissing me, go kiss the world." Her river was nearing its journey, at the confluence of life and death, this woman who came to India as a refugee, raised by a widowed Mother, no more educated than high school, married to an anonymous government servant whose last salary was Rupees Three Hundred, robbed of her eyesight by fate and crowned by adversity was telling me to go and kiss the world!
Success to me is about Vision. It is the ability to rise above the immediacy of pain. It is about imagination. It is about sensitivity to small people. It is about building inclusion. It is about connectedness to a larger world existence. It is about personal tenacity. It is about giving back more to life than you take out of it. It is about creating extra-ordinary success with ordinary lives.
Thank you very much; I wish you good luck and God's speed. Go! kiss the world. 

5 day chart

look at chart

SENSEX AS ON 23.10.09

COMMENTS ON CHART

SENSEX AS ON 21.10.09

LOOK AT CHARTS.

 

AS EXPECTED WE GOT RESISTED IN 17300/17800 AREA AND CORRECTED .WE R NOW POISED AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE AGAIN. WE R JUST ON TRENDLINE RUNNING FROM MARCH LOWS. WE HAVE BOUNCED NO OF TIMES SO FAR. WILL WE SURVIVE THIS TIME?

 

ONE MORE SUPPORT IS AT TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION UPPER TRENDLINE.

 

 

***************************************************************************
UPDATE AT 4.13 P.M.

WE HAVE BROKEN TRENDLINE RUNNING FROM MARCH LOWS AND WE SAW SELL OFF. TODAY'S LOW AT 16721 IS ON PURPLE TRENDLINE I HAD SHOWN IN CHART AND WE HAVE TAKEN SUPPORT THERE.IT IS UPPER TRENDLINE OF TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION.WE MAY SEE A SMALL BOUNCE FROM HERE WHICH CAN BE USED FOR SELLING.

SENSEX AS ON 16.10.09

LOOK AT COMMENTS ON CHART

5 day chart as on 16.10.09

look at charts , as expected and shown in chart we have maintained uptrend.watch green trend line.on break of the same we can see correction.

ADANI ENT

LOOK AT CHART

century textile

look at chart

HAPPY DIWALI

दिवाली मुबारक !
नया साल आपके लिए समृधि और शांति लाये !

5 day chart

look at chart we r on a last leg of move started from 16606

living in 2009

Living in 2009
YOU KNOW YOU ARE LIVING IN 2009 when...
1. You accidentally enter your password on the microwave.
2 You haven't played solitaire with real cards in years.
3. You have a list of 15 phone numbers to reach your family of 3.
4. You e-mail the person who works at the desk next to you.
5. Your reason for not staying in touch with friends and family is that they don't have e-mail addresses.
6. You pull up in your own driveway and use your cell phone to see if anyone is home to help you carry in the groceries.
7. Every commercial on television has a web site at the bottom of the screen.
8. Leaving the house without your cell phone, which you didn't have the first 20 or 30 (or 60) years of your life, is now a cause for panic and you turn around to go and get it.
10. You get up in the morning and go on line before getting your coffee.
11. You start tilting your head sideways to smile. : )
12 You're reading this and nodding and laughing.
13. Even worse, you know exactly to whom you are going to forward this message.
14. You are too busy to notice there was no #9 on this list.
15. You actually scrolled back up to check that there wasn't a #9 on this list
AND NOW YOU ARE LAUGHING at yourself.
Go on, forward this to your friends. You know you want to. ha ha ha ha.

U.S. Dollar: Kiss Goodbye or Reversal at Hand

have a look at the link. interesting one.

 

 

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/10/13/U.S.-Dollar-Kiss-Goodbye-or-Reversal-at-Hand.aspx

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 12.10.09

on friday we closed below 20 dma so i was more biased towards bearish view although trendline was not broken as shown in chart sent earlier.

 

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv0lDyHkZr2uRU_1nVPeJczyAYVWhjPNnkSqcAY2S7Pn_7_WCmBbVtoIlAbbLqgHVZrT00YHPC7n6uptvBFiV_quiz4CHN1vlpg1ouBXa94epXg79Zzs32XRk2OmwhnQgzrWzX5xzwTeB7/s1600-h/SENSEX+AS+ON+9.10.2009-772220.PNG

with help of good iip nos and ambani bros development as i had mentioned in prev mail 

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/10/anil-wants-to-end-tussle-with-mukesh.html

 

market bounced back.

 

what next ?

 

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4eXTmACKTW_F5K_JhrIkA_TJvoZ2-vQpFLzyQDLQHLWZTNcZ89QWi68GxSWK3KoAuy2Eb2QurRthhTwVACfnTY9CF1QgDkBMOzWBNRDI0cV4i39e19_d3It4xVDuLp57RfKhxwexE8RxV/s1600-h/SENSEX+WAVE+COUNT+BY+ILANGO+AS+ON+5.10.2009-795428.PNG

 

we are on sub wave (v) as shown in this link which can take us upto 17300/17800.

 

on completeion of this sub wave we can decide further course of action.it has shown 2 options. second option of wave count (more bullish ) is also shown with blue colour.

 

 

ANIL WANTS TO END TUSSLE WITH MUKESH

In a surprise move, industrialist Anil Ambani today reached out to estranged elder brother Mukesh saying all disagreements can be sorted out in a cordial and conciliatory manner.
Returning from a pilgrimage to Kedarnath and Badrinath on the eve of Dipawali, Anil said in a statement he has "maintained the greatest of love, affection and respect for Mukesh ... Over past four years have left no stone unturned to find a solution."
Calling for a generous heart, a willing mind and accommodating spirit to resolve the issue, he said that there could be no better gift to mother Kokilaben, adding the elder statesmen and family friends wanted end to current impasse.
The two brothers are engaged in a bitter court battle over allocation of gas and the Supreme Court will commence hearing of the case from October 20.
No comments can be obtained immediately from Mukesh Ambani's spokesperson.
Today's overtures from Anil Ambani follow a controversy over marketing margins that RIL was charging Reliance Infrastructure (R-Infra) to supply KG gas to a power plant in Andhra Pradesh. Last week, R-Infra agreed to pay the marketing margins but said it would do so under protest.
Meanwhile, in today's statement, Anil Ambani said he hoped that his feelings would be reciprocated and sought "divine inspiration and blessings to heal the wounds with Mukesh Ambani".
It may be recalled that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had earlier expressed a wish that the two brothers come together in the larger national interest and similar sentiments were echoed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and other senior government functionaries.

SOURCE : BUSINESS STANDARD

ALL INDICES AT CRITICAL SUPPORT ON TREND LINE

LOOK AT ALL CHARTS.

 

BSE 30,BSE 100, BSE 200 AND BSE 500 ALL ARE AT CRITICAL SUPPORT ON TREND LINE RUNNING FROM MARCH

FIBO TIME CLUSTER

as on today we are in a classic time cluster as per fibo.

 

daily charts

 

from low of 7697 made on 27/10/08 we have completed 231 days , next fibo no 233

 

from low of 8047 made on  6/03/09 we have completed 144 days, a perfect fibo no

 

weekly charts

 

from recent bottom of 13220 nade on 17/07/09 we have completed 12 weeks, next fibo no 13

 

monthly charts

 

from top of 21206 in jan 2008 we are running in 21 st month , a fibo no

 

from bottom of 7697 made in oct 2008 we have completed 12 months next fibo 13

 

from bottom of 8047 made on march 2009 we have completed 7 months next fibo no is 8.

WAKE UP BEAR!

i shared with inder weekly trend is down !

he reacted WAKE UP BEAR (sid )!

SENSEX AS ON 8.10.2009

COMMENTS ON CHART

STOCKS TO WATCH FOR TRADING :METALS, CAPITAL GOODS AND BANKS

WATCH STOCKS FROM METALS, CAPITAL GOODS AND BANKS FOR TRADING .

SENSEX WAVE COUNT BY ILANGO

LOOK AT CHART FOR WAVE COUNT

watch 16834 for short term

moves from 16495
16495 to 16834 up
16834 to 16613 dn
16613 to 17196 up
17196 to 16836 dn so far
if we sustain this lvl of 16834 we can see a small bounce.