SENSEX AS ON 29.10.2010

after last top at 20855 we have seen lower top at 20452. on Friday we bounced from strong sup area around 19800 from where no of bottoms are seen in chart.still we are in downward channel.coming days will be full of events which can have impact on markets and we may see volatility also.

* RBI  policy - change in interest rates

* FED  meeting- announcement of further actions

* Coal India listing - refunds credit

* Obama visit to India - IT/ Defense  industry related announcements

us dollar index and Indian rupee is also in sideways . quarterly earning season is almost over. liquidity from foreign flows ,             the major trigger for rally will  be decided in coming days . so we may see decisive move after clarity in next week.

decisive break of 19800 can generate sharp dnmoves bcz of tentative inverse head n shoulder pattern shown in chart.

decisive close above 20350 or decisive move above 20450 may indicate end of correction started from 20855  .

fibo levels for reference.

17820 to 20855

38.2 % 19696

50    % 19338

61.8 % 18979

20855 to 19769

38.2 % 20184

50   %  20312

61.8 % 20440 

SENSEX AS ON 25.10.2010

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED.

 

SENSEX AS ON 15.10.2010

as shown in chart we crossed recent top of 20706 and made new high of 20855 and have broken last low of 20107 which was made before top of 20855. sensex closed at 20125 on Friday . we have seen higher high and higher low pattern since may end from 15960. on decisive moves below 20107 that pattern will change and we will be in sell mode with stop loss of last top made at 20855.

actually we should watch market in global perspective more precisely, we should look at global currencies .us dollar index has gone below 77 where it may get support and bounce may be seen. as shown in daily chart of us dollar index +ve divergence is seen in rsi chart but price action is yet to give confirmation.with weakness in dollar funds are flow to relatively stronger economies. change of direction of the same may change direction of fund flow.

if profit booking seen in last week is for mega ipo of coal India only prices shd not correct more.watch price action. sharp moves in currencies may bring sharp corrections in equity,gold and crude markets.

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UPDATE AS ON 18.10.10

STOP LOSS OF 20107 TRIGGERED DECISIVELY. SELL WITH STOP LOSS OF 20855

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update as on 20.10.2010

we have made lower top of 20332 on 19.10.2010 and broken bottom of 19870 made on 18.10.2010

STOP LOSS REVISED FOR SELL POSITIONS FROM 20855 TO 20332.

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UPDATE AS ON 23.10.2010

WE HAVE RETRACED UP TO APPRX LOWER TOP FORMED AROUND 20350 AND CORRECTED AGAIN.50% RETRACEMENT LVL OF FALL FROM 20855 TO 19823 IS ALSO AT 20339.US DOLLAR INDEX AND RUPEE HAS ALSO SHOWN SIMILAR PATTERNS.

DECISIVE MOVE ABOVE 20350 ZONE WILL BRING MORE STRENGTH.OTHERWISE WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE.

STOP LOSS FOR LONG POSITIONS

NIFTY CROSSED PREV TOP OF 6222 AND MADE NEW TOP AND SENSEX ALSO TESTED PREV TOP (VERY CLOSE )

SO STOP LOSS LEVELS FOR LONG POSITIONS ARE REVISED AS GIVEN BELOW.

stop loss levels for short/medium and long term

short term  20107

medium term 17820

long term 15960

US DOLLAR IND RUPEE MONTHLY CHART

LOOK AT CHART AND AND READ COMMENTS ON CHART.