Saturday, October 30, 2010

SENSEX AS ON 29.10.2010

after last top at 20855 we have seen lower top at 20452. on Friday we bounced from strong sup area around 19800 from where no of bottoms are seen in chart.still we are in downward channel.coming days will be full of events which can have impact on markets and we may see volatility also.

* RBI  policy - change in interest rates
* FED  meeting- announcement of further actions
* Coal India listing - refunds credit
* Obama visit to India - IT/ Defense  industry related announcements

us dollar index and Indian rupee is also in sideways . quarterly earning season is almost over. liquidity from foreign flows ,             the major trigger for rally will  be decided in coming days . so we may see decisive move after clarity in next week.

decisive break of 19800 can generate sharp dnmoves bcz of tentative inverse head n shoulder pattern shown in chart.
decisive close above 20350 or decisive move above 20450 may indicate end of correction started from 20855  .

fibo levels for reference.

17820 to 20855

38.2 % 19696
50    % 19338
61.8 % 18979

20855 to 19769

38.2 % 20184
50   %  20312
61.8 % 20440 




4 comments:

  1. Chances of market going down is more as per my understandings

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Pankajbhai

    Very good analysis. Thanks for that. I think as per your mentioning we may see 18.9K

    LovelyGuy

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi,

    ofcourse all done as usual :) only two pending OBAMA & coal india credit.., what will happen if they refund the money?? more liquidity will come or market tank atleast for short term??

    astro failed this time :P

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear Manherbhai, Spandanbhai and Sujatha,

    HAPPY DIWALI to all !

    market does not like uncertainity. after correcting from 20855 bulls did not allow market to go below first retracement lvl arnd 19700. and market bounced and bcz of no of triggers it remained volatile and in cautious uptrend. it did not cross resistance zone decisively bcz of major powerful trigger of fed meeting which has capacity to change direction of currencies and fund flows to emerging markets.

    rbi policy and fed meeting both were in line of expectations. us dollar index has started its downward journey again below 76 zone. it is convincing to bulls that foreign money will be flowing for more period.

    one more factor which was not discussed was US mid term election and they have gone against OBAMA and that may make it difficult for him to take anti INDIAN business proposals. he may have to face stiff resistance from Republicans in House of representatives.that may help our IT cos.

    we have made new life time high today on closing basis.

    more broad based bullishness may be seen in coming days.

    Regards!

    Pankaj Shah

    ReplyDelete