SENSEX AS ON 31.12.09

look at chart attached!

HAPPY, HEALTHY & WEALTHY NEW YEAR TO ALL!

STOP LOSS AT 16578

WE HAVE SEEN IN FOLLOWING CHART THAT OUR STOP LOSS WAS 16210 WHEN IT WAS SENT.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMJJuUs4OfFOx_Nm5XOYtIfcZdvpnM6qOoHpD9sV5MSrxxQsMnQD21Y0HzgUhwfiYk8hBBfQuZEivSjLSEuz3JLnXA3K6M5TNd9RaJNKuUXGdd9j3sp9U3ZbFMUNasJpBgIy52TacLx2A3/s1600-h/1-2-3+PATTERN-700450.PNG

NOW WE HAVE SEEN HIGHER BOTTOM AT 16578 ON 21/12/2009.

TODAY WE HAVE SEEN LOWER HIGH AND LOWER LOW AFTER GOOD RUN UP FROM 16578 TO 17486.

SO I REVISE STOP LOSS AT 16578 NOW.

POWER STOCKS SHOWING POWER

POWER SECTOR SHARES ARE SHOWING STRENGTH. NTPC HAS GIVEN GOOD BREAK OUT , RPOWER HAS GIVEN GOOD 

BREAK OUT. IT SEEMS THAT POWER SECOR SHARES WILL SHOW MORE STRENGTH IN COMING DAYS

MERRY CHRISTMAS

http://www.123greetings.com/send/view/12725109104346727316

TRENDLINES

LOOK AT TRENDLINES.
*********************************************
UPDATE AS ON 23.12.09

CHEERS! MARKET FOLLOWS BLUE PATH NOT RED!

ZANDU PHARMA

Corporate Announcement


Scrip Code:506720 Company:Zandu Pharmaceutical Works Ltd




09 December 2009


Subject: Zandu Pharmaceutical fixes Book Closure for Scheme of Arrangement & AGM
Announcement: Zandu Pharmaceutical Works Ltd has informed BSE that the Register of Members & Share Transfer Books of the Company will remain closed from December 24, 2009 to December 31, 2009 (both days inclusive) for the purpose of:

1. As per Scheme of Arrangement, Emami Ltd. shall issue fourteen (14) equity shares of face value of Rs. 2/- per share of Emami Ltd. for every one (1) equity share of face
value of Rs. 100/- each held in the Company.

2. Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Company to be held on December 31, 2009.

: Article sourced from: Lasting Legacies (Tata Review- Special Commemorative Issue 2004

Surely worth a read  Have Passion! It was probably the April of 1974. Bangalore was getting warm and gulmohars were blooming at the IISc campus. I was the only girl in my postgraduate department and was staying at the ladies' hostel. Other girls were pursuing research in different departments of Science. I was looking forward to going abroad to complete a doctorate in computer science. I had been offered scholarships from Universities in the US. I had not thought of taking up a job in India. One day, while on the way to my hostel from our lecture-hall complex, I saw an advertisement on the notice board. It was a standard job-requirement notice from the famous automobile company Telco (now Tata Motors). It stated that the company required young, bright engineers, hardworking and with an excellent academic background, etc.   At the bottom was a small line: "Lady candidates need not apply." I read it and was very upset. For the first time in my life I was up against gender discrimination.   Though I was not keen on taking up the job, I saw it as a challenge. I had done extremely well in academics, better than most of my male peers. Little did I know then that in real life academic excellence is not enough to be successful.   After reading the notice I went fuming to my room. I decided to inform the topmost person in Telco's management about the injustice the company was perpetrating. I got a postcard and started to write, but there was a problem: I did not know who headed Telco. I thought it must be one of the Tatas. I knew JRD Tata was the head of the Tata Group; I had seen his pictures in newspapers (actually, Sumant Moolgaokar was the company's chairman then). I took the card, addressed it to JRD and started writing. To this day I remember clearly what I wrote.   "The great Tatas have always been pioneers. They are the people who started the basic infrastructure industries in India, such as iron and steel, chemicals, textiles and locomotives. They have cared for higher education in India since 1900 and they were responsible for the establishment of the Indian Institute of Science. Fortunately, I study there. But I am surprised how a company such as Telco is discriminating on the basis of gender."   I posted the letter and forgot about it. Less than 10 days later, I received a telegram stating that I had to appear for an interview at Telco's Pune facility at the company's expense. I was taken aback by the telegram. My hostel mate told me I should use the opportunity to go to Pune free of cost and buy them the famous Pune saris for cheap! I collected Rs 30 each from everyone who wanted a sari. When I look back, I feel like laughing at the reasons for my going, but back then they seemed good enough to make the trip.   It was my first visit to Pune and I immediately fell in love with the city. To this day it remains dear to me. I feel as much at home in Pune as I do in Hubli, my hometown. The place changed my life in so many ways. As directed, I went to Telco's Pimpri office for the interview. There were six people on the panel and I realised then that this was serious business.   "This is the girl who wrote to JRD," I heard somebody whisper as soon as I entered the room. By then I knew for sure that I would not get the job. The realisation abolished all fear from my mind, so I was rather cool while the interview was being conducted. Even before the interview started, I reckoned the panel was biased, so I told them, rather impolitely, "I hope this is only a technical interview."   They were taken aback by my rudeness, and even today I am ashamed about my attitude. The panel asked me technical questions and I answered all of them.   Then an elderly gentleman with an affectionate voice told me, "Do you know why we said lady candidates need not apply? The reason is that we have never employed any ladies on the shop floor. This is not a co-ed college; this is a factory. When it comes to academics, you are a first ranker throughout. We appreciate that, but people like you should work in research laboratories."   I was a young girl from small-town Hubli. My world had been a limited place. I did not know the ways of large corporate houses and their difficulties, so I answered, "But you must start somewhere, otherwise no woman will ever be able to work in your factories."   Finally, after a long interview, I was told I had been successful. So this was what the future had in store for me. Never had I thought I would take up a job in Pune. I met a shy young man from Karnataka there, we became good friends and we got married..   It was only after joining Telco that I realized who JRD was: the uncrowned king of Indian industry. Now I was scared, but I did not get to meet him till I was transferred to Bombay. One day I had to show some reports to Mr Moolgaokar, our chairman, who we all knew as SM. I was in his office on the first floor of Bombay House (the Tata headquarters) when, suddenly JRD walked in. That was the first time I saw "appro JRD". Appro means "our" in Gujarati. This was the affectionate term by which people at Bombay House called him.   I was feeling very nervous, remembering my postcard episode. SM introduced me nicely, "Jeh (that's what his close associates called him), this young woman is an engineer and that too a postgraduate. She is the first woman to work on the Telco shop floor." JRD looked at me. I was praying he would not ask me any questions about my interview (or the postcard that preceded it).   Thankfully, he didn't. Instead, he remarked. "It is nice that girls are getting into engineering in our country. By the way, what is your name?"   "When I joined Telco I was Sudha Kulkarni, Sir," I replied. "Now I am Sudha Murthy." He smiled and kindly smile and started a discussion with SM. As for me, I almost ran out of the room. After that I used to see JRD on and off. He was the Tata Group chairman and I was merely an engineer.. There was nothing that we had in common. I was in awe of him.   One day I was waiting for Murthy, my husband, to pick me up after office hours. To my surprise I saw JRD standing next to me. I did not know how to react. Yet again I started worrying about that postcard. Looking back, I realise JRD had forgotten about it. It must have been a small incident for him, but not so for me. "Young lady, why are you here?" he asked. "Office time is over." I said, "Sir, I'm waiting for my husband to come and pick me up." JRD said, "It is getting dark and there's no one in the corridor. I'll wait with you till your husband comes." I was quite used to waiting for Murthy, but having JRD waiting alongside made me extremely uncomfortable. I was nervous. Out of the corner of my eye I looked at him. He wore a simple white pant and shirt. He was old, yet his face was glowing. There wasn't any air of superiority about him. I was thinking, "Look at this person. He is a chairman, a well-respected man in our country and he is waiting for the sake of an ordinary employee." Then I saw Murthy and I rushed out. JRD called and said, "Young lady, tell your husband never to make his wife wait again."     In 1982 I had to resign from my job at Telco. I was reluctant to go, but I really did not have a choice. I was coming down the steps of Bombay House after wrapping up my final settlement when I saw JRD coming up. He was absorbed in thought. I wanted to say goodbye to him, so I stopped. He saw me and paused. Gently, he said, "So what are you doing, Mrs Kulkarni?" (That was the way he always addressed me.) "Sir, I am leaving Telco." "Where are you going?" he asked. "Pune, Sir. My husband is starting a company called Infosys and I'm shifting to Pune." "Oh! And what will you do when you are successful." "Sir, I don't know whether we will be successful." "Never start with diffidence," he advised me. "Always start with confidence. When you are successful you must give back to society. Society gives us so much; we must reciprocate. I wish you all the best."   Then JRD continued walking up the stairs. I stood there for what seemed like a millennium. That was the last time I saw him alive. Many years later I met Ratan Tata in the same Bombay House, occupying the chair JRD once did. I told him of my many sweet memories of working with Telco. Later, he wrote to me, "It was nice hearing about Jeh from you. The sad part is that he's not alive to see you today." I consider JRD a great man because, despite being an extremely busy person, he valued one postcard written by a young girl seeking justice. He must have received thousands of letters everyday. He could have thrown mine away, but he didn't do that. He respected the intentions of that unknown girl, who had neither influence nor money, and gave her an opportunity in his company. He did not merely give her a job; he changed her life and mindset forever. Close to 50 per cent of the students in today's engineering colleges are girls. And there are women on the shop floor in many industry segments. I see these changes and I think of JRD. If at all time stops and asks me what I want from life, I would say I wish JRD were alive today to see how the company we started has grown. He would have enjoyed it wholeheartedly. My love and respect for the House of Tata remains undiminished by the passage of time. I always looked up to JRD. I saw him as a role model for his simplicity, his generosity, his kindness and the care he took of his employees. Those blue eyes always reminded me of the sky; they had the same vastness and magnificence. (Sudha Murthy is a widely published writer and chairperson of the Infosys Foundation involved in a number of social development initiatives. Infosys chairman Narayana Murthy is her husband.) Article sourced from: Lasting Legacies (Tata Review- Special Commemorative Issue 2004), brought out by the house of Tatas to commemorate the 100th birth anniversary of JRD Tata on July 29, 2004. --

 

NIFTY

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

change in timing nse

After the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) recently advanced opening of its stock market to 9.45am, its rival, the National Stock Exchange (NSE), has gone a step ahead and will start from 9am from Friday
****************************************************
UPDATE AS ON 17.12.09

Based on the market feedback, it has been jointly decided by NSE & BSE that the revision of market open timing to 9 am shall be effective from January 4, 2010. In the interim, the current market open timing of 9.55 am shall continue.

December 17, 2009

5 day chart as on 16.12.09

look at chart attached
*****************************
UPDATE AS ON 17.12.09 4.30 PM
STILL WE ARE STUCK IN DOWNWARD CHANNEL.

COMMENTS BY SANDIP SABHARWAL ON US DOLLAR INDEX

read comments from SANDIP SABHARWAL ON US DOLLAR INDEX in given link. it is interesting!

http://www.sandipsabharwal.com/2009/12/is-us-dollar-index-bounce-back-enough.html

CHANGE IN TIMING FOR BSE EXCHANGE

 Tuesday, 15th December, 2009

 

To:  All Members of the Exchange

 

Sub:   Change in Trading timings – Equity and Equity Derivatives segments

Trading Members of the exchange are hereby informed that pursuant to SEBI circular SEBI/DNPD/Cir-47/2009 dated October 23, 2009, with effect from Friday, December 18, 2009, trading in the Equity and Equity Derivatives segments will commence from 9.45 a.m. onwards, instead of the present timing of 9.55 am onwards.

Consequently, the continuous trading session in both segments will be from 9.45 a.m. to 3.30 pm on all business days. There will be no change in timings of any other session in both the segments.

It is however, clarified that the Block Deal window timings in the Equity Segment of the exchange will remain the same as stipulated by SEBI vide its Circular MRD/DoP/SE/Cir  - 19/05 dated September 2,  2005 i.e. from 9.55 a.m. to 10.30 a.m. as at present.

In case trading members require any clarifications, they may please contact their respective Relationship Managers.

 

Mr. Dilip Oak

General Manager – I.T.

sensex view

WE HAVE SEEN TRIPPLE TOPS IN NIFTY AROUND 5180.WHICH IS A BEARISH SIGN TILL WE CROSS 5180 ZONE DECISIVELY.

 

I HAD GIVEN SENSEX OPTIONS ON 27.11.2009. IF WE ARE ON BULLISH TREND AS PER THAT CHART WE MUST SEE A BREAK

OUT FROM TRIANGLE WHICH IS SHOWN IN ATTACHED CHART.TODAY WE REVERSED JUST FROM THAT TREND LINE.

*******************************************
UPDATE AS ON 16.12.09 10.52 AM

WE R VERY CLOSE TO LOWER TRENDLINE OF TRIANGLE WHICH IS A FIRST SUPPORT AREA.
MORE OVER 50% OF LAST RISE FROM 16210 TO 17361 IS 16786. SIMILAR SUPPORT IN NIFTY IS ARND 4995.

WATCH BANK STOCKS

LOOKING AT BANK STOCKS CLOSING WE MAY SEE UPMOVE IN BANKING STOCKS IN COMING DAYS

MOSER BAER

BUY MOSER BAER AT 90.

KEEP A STOP LOSS BELOW 83 ON CLOSING BASIS

**********************************
UPDATE AS ON 15.12.09 4.50 P.M.

STOP LOSS OF MOSER BEAR IS TRIGGERED TODAY. WE HAVE CLOSED BELOW 83

Long term technicals - Turning extremely positive: SANDIP SABHARWAL

HIGHLY BULLISH MAIL FROM SANDIP SABHARWAL.

HAVE A LOOK AT IT.
http://www.sandipsabharwal.com/2009/12/long-term-technicals-turning-extremely.html

1-2-3 PATTERN

Friends,

 

we have seen top of 21206 in january 2008, we have seen bottom of 7697 in oct 2008.we have seen both greed and fear at their extreme.some exited from market smartly near top but got trapped again at very higher levels again.same way some smart players got entry at near bottom of 7697 exited early and still waiting for big correction.what is the solution for entry and exit at any time by simple method without going for analysis of no of fundamental or technical studies.

 

one thing i have found which is a very much important factor and that is PRICE  of the asset. by focussing only on price and observing it in simple manner as shown in attached chart thats 1-2-3 pattern,actually it is nothing but use of higher highs and higher lows with some discipline.

 

it can be used for any asset in the world without knowing any thing about it at any time irrespective of PE level.

 

it can be used in bearish period to sell first and buy later to minimise your losses.

 

only limitation of this pattern is sideways market for longer duartion like we have seen between oct 2008 and march 2009.

 

do some paper trading and than use it. u will become self sufficient.

reliance power on verge of a break out

look at chart attached

TRADING SYSTEM

FEW DAYS BACK I HAD DISCUSSED ABOUT 1-2-3 PATTERN TO BE USED AS A TRADING PATTERN.
I HAVE FOUND A SIMILAR PATTERN . LINK IS GIVEN BELOW.READ IT AND TRY TO IMPLEMENT.
http://techtraderreport.com/Articles/CountBack/GuppyCountBack.html

BUY RELIANCE INDUSTRIES CMP 1115

BUYING LIST

ON CROSSING DOWNWARD CHANNEL MARKET MOVED UP IN VERY STRONG MANNER.
I LIST HERE FEW STOCKS WHICH R LOOKING STRONG TECHNICALLY.VERIFY AT YOUR END BEFORE BUYING.

CHENNAI PETRO ABOVE 222
TATA CHEM 294
CASTROL 540
IOC 301

KEEP STOP LOSS AS PER YOUR COMFORT

VIEWS OF SPANDAN JOSHI Mirage 1.3

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Spandan Joshi <joshispandan@yahoo.co.uk>
Date: 30 Nov 2009 04:36
Subject: Mirage 1.3

Dear all,   Mirage Version 1.3 ==================== 29/11/2009 ================   Where are we? =============== I firmly believe that we have completed B-C-4 (Downfall)   This lasted for 2 weeks and taken us to 15330, a fall of 2163 points from 17493.   The fifth wave has two targets   123% and 162%   They come to 17990 and 18834   Previously, under very first presentation of Mirage, I gave rough target of 17493 to 18115. However precise targets can only be given when wave gets completed.   Indeed this is my main scenario.   As per our main scenario, we may have completed B-C-5-2   5th wave is an up move as we have moved up from 15330 to 17200, already 1870 points.   This was probably the first wave called 5-1. The second wave has retraced 980 points to 16219. That is a 52% downfall to the 1st wave. With that I feel 2nd wave may be over by now, unless we break 16219 again. We may see 5-3 firing in upward direction. If that is a right direction and a count (Primary count) then we shall see 17806 as a 162% up move to the fall of 980 points.   The target comes to 17806 as per B-C-5-3 ================================== =============================================== However there are still small chances of Rally terminating below 17200. That will be our secondary scenario. For that to happen two conditions must be fulfilled.   1 We mustn't close above 17200 decisively. 2 We must break 16219 first followed by 15330 next.   Unless that happens, primary wave count should be followed by our model. If the above happens, one may consider as a 5th wave failure.   Strategy? =========== Not to trade/Buy can be a good idea. Watch it out for above findings. Of course over 17200 and 17493, one may prefer to buy only for ST trade. Sporadic buying opportunities can be picked up as and when in the mean time.   Wish you all a good luck.   Regards   Spandan Joshi

SENSEX

LOOK AT CHART
************************************************************************
UPDATE AS ON 30.11.09

WE GOT RESISTED EXACTLY AT UPPER TRENDLINE OF DOWNWARD CHANNEL.

***************************************************************************
UPDATE AS ON 1.12.09

WE HAVE COME OUT FROM DOWNWARD CHANNEL , A BULLISH SIGN

SENSEX OPTIONS AS ON 27.11.09

10000 hits !

Dear Friends,

blog has crossed 10,000 hits.i recall when i had given title of 5000 hits in 3 months time KPR misunderstood and thought it was call for nifty and see nifty has also crossed 5k mark during this 3 months time.

if u have observed i am having some problem with my system in saving and pasting charts for blog. size gets reduced. so i am not putting charts since few days.very soon i will sort the problem.

market has broken trendline running from 15331 after consuming 1.618% time in recovering 1960 points after a fall of 2162 points.first imp low was arnd 17k and that is gone today.next immediate imp low is at 16636.

fibo lvls r 16542/16311 and 16080 for 38.2/50 and 61.8% of rise of 1960 points.
so better to keep strict stop losses on long positions. new long positions shd be avoided at present for few days.let mkt settle.

one more change i have planned and following also since few days after reading few mails at isg from Spandan and other friends. i had observed that by tracking sensex regularly readers as well as me were getting carried away by observations on sensex and that always affects yr decisions for buying n selling stocks. patterns for stock and sensex may be different.so i have minimised analysis of sensex and i am increasing analysis of stocks.i have started giving stop loss only while analysing stock. for target u have to observe yrself and go on raising yr stop loss as well as target.

for simple analysis better to follow 1-2-3 system. i will discuss this pattern with help of chart in detail in few days .


i thank u all for yr kind support and encouragement!

BILT

BUT BILT ABOVE 24.25 WITH STOP LOSS AT 21.5

TINPLATE

BUY TINPLATE ABOVE 61 WITH STOP LOSS BELOW 57.

SENSEX AT 80% RETRACEMENT LVL 17061

 we have just completed 80% retracement of fall from 17493 to 15331. if we cross this lvl decisively we can move up for new highs otherwise if we reverse from here we can see correction

sensex

**********************************************************
UPDATE ON 16.11.09 AT 11.00 AM
WE R VERY CLOSE TO 80% RETRACEMENT LEVEL 17061 OF FALL FROM 17493 TO 15331. ON CROSSING THIS LEVEL ONLY MKT CAN GO FOR NEW HIGH OTHER WISE WE CAN SEE CORRECTION.
WATCH FROM SIDE LINES FOR SOME TIME AND ACT AS PER FURTHER MOVES

VENUS REMEDIES

LOOK AT CHART

MARKET?

COMMENTS ON CHART

MOTHERSON SUMI

look at chart

******************
UPDATE AS ON 16.11.09 12.45 PM

MOTHERSON IS TRADING AT 138.8 AFTER MAKING ATOP OF 143+
BOOK PROFITS

MARKET?

comments on chart

RETRACEMENT OVER?

on 3.11.09 we had shown in chart that we can see a strong bounce from here and market has bounced by 1186 points so far.

 

what next ?

 

i have shown 2 more charts.

 

in 5 day chart i have shown small sub wave counts of upmove from 15331 to 16517 which follows fibo nos accurately.more over -ve divergence is also seen there. of course correction in prices is to be seen yet.

 

in a weekly chart we have reached today at critical resistance as shown in weekly charts.

 

so it is time to be cautious in long positions taken at lower levels.61.8% resistance level is at 16667 very close to prev low level of 16606.

 

Pankaj Shah

ZANDU PHARMA, MONSANTO, WARREN TEA

CHARTS OF ZANDU PHARMA, MONSANTO AND WARREN TEA ARE ATTCHED.


**********************
UPDATE ON 27.11.09

WARREN TEA HAS CLOSED TODAY AROUND 220.

CHEERS!
******************************
UPDATE ON 6.1.2010
MONSANTO 1800+
ZANDU HAS GIVEN EMAMI SHARES SO VERY GOOD RETURNS FOR ZANDU SHARE HOLDERS

SENSEX

COMMENTS ON CHART

*************************************************************************
UPDATE AS ON 7.11.09
AS PER EXPECTATION WE HAVE SEEN GOOD BOUNCE IN LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE HAVE CROSSED 38.2% LEVEL AND AFTER TESTING 16283 WE HAVE CLOSED EXACTLY AT 38.2% LEVEL.PROFIT BOOKING SHD BE DONE IN BUYING DONE AT LOWER LEVELS.

SENSEX AS ON 3.11.09

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED.
************************************************************************
UPDATE AT 4.50 P.M. ON 4.11.09

CHEERS !

MARKET UP BY MORE THAN 500POINTS AS PER EXPECTED AND SHOWN IN CHART!

WAKE UP BEAR!

this mail was sent on 9/10/09.

we saw reversal from 16/10/09


http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/10/wake-up-bear.html

BEARS WHO ARE CALLING FOR A MARKET REVERSAL - DREAM ON

have a look at link.

Blog: sandip sabharwal
Post: BEARS WHO ARE CALLING FOR A MARKET REVERSAL - DREAM ON
Link: http://sandipsabharwal.blogspot.com/2009/10/bears-who-are-calling-for-market.html

DOW

DOW HAS ALSO CORRECTED HEAVILY IN LAST WEEK AND

 

IS POISED AT CRITICAL ZONE OF 50EMA AS SHOWN IN CHART.

****************************************************************
UPDATE ON 3.11.09 6 P.M.

DOW GAVE A STRONG BOUNCE. BUT TODAY ALL MKTS R WEAK. DOW TO FOLLOW WORLD MKTS AND TO TUMBLE AGAIN?

TATA TEA

LOOK AT CHART
**************************************************

SENSEX WAVE COUNT

LOOK AT THE LINK. I SHARED MY BULLISH VIEW WITH iLANGOJI AND HE HAS SENT CHART FOR SAME.

 

A BULLISH OPTION I HAVE DISCUUSED IN LAST 2 MAILS.

 

NOW WE CAN FOLLOW THIS VIEW WITH STRICT STOP LOSS OF YESTERDAY'S LOW 15994

 

 

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/2009/10/sensex-chart-by-pankaj.html

*****************************************************************************
UPDATE AT 4.00PM 30/10/2009

WITH HELP OF +VE GLOBAL MKTS WE OPENED UP AND WENT UPTO 16360 AND REVERSED FROM THERE.SO FIRST LVL SHOWN IN CHART OF CLOSE ABOVE 16375 NOT WORKED AND WE HAVE CORRECTED BELOW YESTERDAY'S LOW.SO BULLISH VIEW NOT TO BE CONSIDERED.

MORE OVER TODAY WEEKLY MACD HAS GIVEN SELL SIGNAL. SO BETTER TO SELL ON PULL BACK RALLIES

RCOM AS ON 29.10.09

LOOK AT CHART

 

ZEE NEWS

look at chart

5 DAY CHART/+VE DIVERGENCE

5 DAY CHART SHOWING +VE DIVERGENCE IN RSI AND MACD, WE CAN EXPECT BOUNCE FROM TODAY'S LOW LVLS.

***************************************************************************
WE SAW VERY GOOD BOUNCE FROM LOW LEVELS AND WE ALMOST COVERED FROM SUB 16K TO MORE THAN 16250+ BEFORE SELLING AGAIN.

MARKET?

LOOK AT CHART

***************************************************
UPDATE ON 29.10.09
MARKET TESTED 15994 TODAY AND BOUNCED BACK FROM THERE UPTO 16250 BEFORE SELLING WAS SEEN AGAIN.
AS SHOWN IN CHART IF WE BOUNCE FROM HERE AND UPMOVE IS SEEN THAT WILL BE BULLISH WAVE COUNT SHOWN IN DARK BROWN COLOR IN CHART.

STRICT STOP LOSS FOR BULLISH VIEW CAN BE KEPT AT 15994.

I am an investment counsellor and not a casino owner.

Adding Zeros

The lessons from a low-profile second-generation stockbroker who adds zeros
after his clients wealth, not put them through a zero-sum game

I am amazed when people get excited that a big institutional investor is
buying some stock in a big way. I have seen it in bond markets too. The
dealer will come in and say, Citi is buying, implying that if Citi is a
buyer, there has to be something to it. Nobody will say who the seller is.
Obviously, you cannot buy unless there is a seller. If stocks are worth
buying and everyone thinks so, then why is somebody selling, when all
research analysts think that it is good to buy? We always hear one side of
the story.

We never get to know the other side at all. Maybe it is the domestic trader
who keeps buying and warehousing when the prices are low and, as demand
picks up, he dumps it on an institutional buyer who, in turn, will dump it
on the retail buyer at some point. And the retail buyer, once having bought,
gets stuck. He either becomes a long-term investor or makes a quick exit
(profit or loss borne by him). So, stock markets are a zero-sum game. At
different points in time, different hands hold the parcel. Change in market
prices (which are a function of demand, supply and expectations) increase or
decrease the value of holdings. If you are a short-term trader, you actually
experience the pain or gain. If you are a long-term investor, you only see
changes in your asset value. Of course, you can also get your annual
dividends.

I always wonder at human frailty, when it comes to stock markets. There are
occasions when everyone agrees that, at some point, the markets are very
expensive. How many actually sell? Or how many actually go short on the
market at this stage? Surely, no one does this consistently. At some level,
you sell your shares. Do you again buy them when the market comes off? I
always wonder. No list of names of the worlds rich ever includes any
stock-trader. Warren Buffet has probably never sold much and what his fund
owns are significant chunks of many companies. Bill Gates owes his wealth to
one stockof the company he founded. This leads me to think that
stock-traders are not all that productive in what they do. They are part of
the make-believe world that the media creates for pulling in an audience.
Serious wealth has been perhaps made only by investors who keep hanging on
to their shares and not churn them like a mutual fund manager.

In this context, I recall meeting a stockbroker in Mangalore. He is carrying
on his fathers business and has a loyal clientele. He would advise people to
invest regularly (before systematic investment plan became a buzzword). He
would come out with an annual investment list of around 20 large-cap stocks,
dividing the money equally. He would not churn the portfolio at all, unless
there was a compelling reason to sell any stock. He would do an annual
review and, sometimes, he would add one or two stocks. He preferred to stick
to established names, with high emphasis on management quality and return on
equity. He had kept tabs on what the portfolio did. It generated a
compounded annual return of over 30% over 20 years, excluding dividends. His
churn was less than 5% of the portfolio, over 20 years! This return was
almost twice what the Sensex delivered in the same timeframe.

I quite liked the way he went about his business. Many of his clients were
second-generation clients! He never strayed from his approach. He also
refused to offer his clients any platform for trading in derivatives. His
view was very simple. I am an investment counsellor and not a casino owner.
He also eschewed the small-cap and mid-cap stocks. He said that he did not
have the resources to do homework on them. He did not want me to identify
him, unlike the top brokers who are always seeking to be on television. I
dedicate this column to this low-profile gentleman at Mangalore and wish him
the very best.

FKONCO

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

ADANI ENT TO DECLARE BONUS AND RIGHT SHARES

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/10/adani-ent.html

 

THIS CHART WAS SENT ON 16/10/09.

 

TODAY COMPANY HAS CALLED FOR A MEETING ON 30/10/09 FOR BONUS AND RIGHT SHARES

 

http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid={A8642277-E26A-4F45-A91D-D712E5D3B570}

 

CHEERS!

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UPDATE AS ON 9.11.09

ADANI ENT ON FIRE!

IT TRADES ABOVE 950.

CHEERS!

NICE - Speech was delivered to the Class of 2006 at the IIM

This speech was delivered to the Class of 2006 at the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore on defining success by Subroto Bagchi CEO MindTree.


I was the last child of a small-time government servant, in a family of five brothers. My earliest memory of my father is as that of a District Employment Officer in Koraput, Orissa. It was, and remains as back of beyond as you can imagine. There was no electricity; no primary school nearby and water did not flow out of a tap. As a result, I did not go to school until the age of eight; I was home-schooled. My father used to get transferred every year. The family belongings fit into the back of a jeep – so the family moved from place to place and without any trouble, my Mother would set up an establishment and get us going. Raised by a widow who had come as a refugee from the then East Bengal, she was a matriculate when she married my Father.
My parents set the foundation of my life and the value system, which makes me what I am today and largely, defines what success means to me today.
As District Employment Officer, my father was given a jeep by the government. There was no garage in the Office, so the jeep was parked in our house. My father refused to use it to commute to the office. He told us that the jeep is an expensive resource given by the government- he reiterated to us that it was not "his jeep" but the government's jeep. Insisting that he would use it only to tour the interiors, he would walk to his office on normal days.. He also made sure that we never sat in the government jeep – we could sit in it only when it was stationary.
That was our early childhood lesson in governance – a lesson that corporate managers learn the hard way, some never do.
The driver of the jeep was treated with respect due to any other member of my Father's office. As small children, we were taught not to call him by his name. We had to use the suffix 'dada' whenever we were to refer to him in public or private. When I grew up to own a car and a driver by the name of Raju was appointed – I repeated the lesson to my two small daughters. They have, as a result, grown up to call Raju, 'Raju Uncle' – very different from many of their friends who refer to their family driver, as 'my driver'. When I hear that term from a school- or college-going person, I cringe.
To me, the lesson was significant – you treat small people with more respect than how you treat big people. It is more important to respect your subordinates than your superiors.
Our day used to start with the family huddling around my Mother's chulha – an earthen fire place she would build at each place of posting where she would cook for the family. There was neither gas, nor electrical stoves.The morning routine started with tea. As the brew was served, Father would ask us to read aloud the editorial page of The Statesman's 'muffosil' edition – delivered one day late. We did not understand much of what we were reading. But the ritual was meant for us to know that the world was larger than Koraput district and the English I speak today, despite having studied in an Oriya medium school, has to do with that routine. After reading the newspaper aloud, we were told to fold it neatly. Father taught us a simple lesson.
He used to say, "You should leave your newspaper and your toilet, the way you expect to find it". That lesson was about showing consideration to others. Business begins and ends with that simple precept.
Being small children, we were always enamored with advertisements in the newspaper for transistor radios – we did not have one. We saw other people having radios in their homes and each time there was an advertisement of Philips, Murphy or Bush radios, we would ask Father when we could get one. Each time, my Father would reply that we did not need one because he already had five radios – alluding to his five sons.
We also did not have a house of our own and would occasionally ask Father as to when, like others, we would live in our own house. He would give a similar reply," We do not need a house of our own. I already own five houses". His replies did not gladden our hearts in that instant.
Nonetheless, we learnt that it is important not to measure personal success and sense of well being through material possessions.
Government houses seldom came with fences. Mother and I collected twigs and built a small fence. After lunch, my Mother would never sleep. She would take her kitchen utensils and with those she and I would dig the rocky, white ant infested surrounding. We planted flowering bushes. The white ants destroyed them. My mother brought ash from her chulha and mixed it in the earth and we planted the seedlings all over again. This time, they bloomed. At that time, my father's transfer order came. A few neighbors told my mother why she was taking so much pain to beautify a government house, why she was planting seeds that would only benefit the next occupant. My mother replied that it did not matter to her that she would not see the flowers in full bloom. She said, "I have to create a bloom in a desert and whenever I am given a new place, I must leave it more beautiful than what I had inherited".
That was my first lesson in success. It is not about what you create for yourself, it is what you leave behind that defines success.
My mother began and galvanized the nation in to patriotic fervor. Other than reading out the newspaper to my mother, I had no clue about how I could be part of the action. So, after reading her the newspaper, every day I would land up near the University's water tank, which served the community. I would spend hours under it, imagining that there could be spies who would come to poison the water and I had to watch for them. I would daydream about catching one and how the next day, I would be featured in the newspaper. Unfortunately for me, the spies at war ignored the sleepy town of Bhubaneswar and I never got a chance to catch one in action. Yet, that act unlocked my imagination.
Imagination is everything. If we can imagine a future, we can create it, if we can create that future, others will live in it. That is the essence of success.
Over the next few years, my mother's eyesight dimmed but in me she created a larger vision, a vision with which I continue to see the world and, I sense, through my eyes, she was seeing too. As the next few years unfolded, her vision deteriorated and she was operated for cataract. I remember, when she returned after her operation and she saw my face clearly for the first time, she was astonished. She said, "Oh my God, I did not know you were so fair".. I remain mighty pleased with that adulation even till date. Within weeks of getting her sight back, she developed a corneal ulcer and, overnight, became blind in both eyes. That was 1969. She died in 2002. In all those 32 years of living with blindness, she never complained about her fate even once. Curious to know what she saw with blind eyes, I asked her once if she sees darkness. She replied, "No, I do not see darkness. I only see light even with my eyes closed". Until she was eighty years of age, she did her morning yoga everyday, swept her own room and washed her own clothes.
To me, success is about the sense of independence; it is about not seeing the world but seeing the light.
Over the many intervening years, I grew up, studied, joined the industry and began to carve my life's own journey. I began my life as a clerk in a government office, went on to become a Management Trainee with the DCM group and eventually found my life's calling with the IT industry when fourth generation computers came to India in 1981. Life took me places – I worked with outstanding people, challenging assignments and traveled all over the world.
In 1992, while I was posted in the US, I learnt that my father, living a retired life with my eldest brother, had suffered a third degree burn injury and was admitted in the Safderjung Hospital in Delhi. I flew back to attend to him – he remained for a few days in critical stage, bandaged from neck to toe. The Safderjung Hospital is a cockroach infested, dirty, inhuman place. The overworked, under-resourced sisters in the burn ward are both victims and perpetrators of dehumanized life at its worst. One morning, while attending to my Father, I realized that the blood bottle was empty and fearing that air would go into his vein, I asked the attending nurse to change it. She bluntly told me to do it myself. In that horrible theater of death, I was in pain and frustration and anger. Finally when she relented and came, my Father opened his eyes and murmured to her, "Why have you not gone home yet?" Here was a man on his deathbed but more concerned about the overworked nurse than his own state. I was stunned at his stoic self.
There I learnt that there is no limit to how concerned you can be for another human being and what the limit of inclusion is you can create.
My father died the next day. He was a man whose success was defined by his principles, his frugality, his universalism and his sense of inclusion.
Above all, he taught me that success is your ability to rise above your discomfort, whatever may be your current state. You can, if you want, raise your consciousness above your immediate surroundings. Success is not about building material comforts – the transistor that he never could buy or the house that he never owned. His success was about the legacy he left, the memetic continuity of his ideals that grew beyond the smallness of a ill-paid, unrecognized government servant's world.
My father was a fervent believer in the British Raj. He sincerely doubted the capability of the post-independence Indian political parties to govern the country. To him, the lowering of the Union Jack was a sad event. My Mother was the exact opposite. When Subhash Bose quit the Indian National Congress and came to Dacca, my mother, then a schoolgirl, garlanded him. She learnt to spin khadi and joined an underground movement that trained her in using daggers and swords. Consequently, our household saw diversity in the political outlook of the two. On major issues concerning the world, the Old Man and the Old Lady had differing opinions.
In them, we learnt the power of disagreements, of dialogue and the essence of living with diversity in thinking.
Success is not about the ability to create a definitive dogmatic end state; it is about the unfolding of thought processes, of dialogue and continuum.
Two years back, at the age of eighty-two, Mother had a paralytic stroke and was lying in a government hospital in Bhubaneswar. I flew down from the US where I was serving my second stint, to see her. I spent two weeks with her in the hospital as she remained in a paralytic state. She was neither getting better nor moving on. Eventually I had to return to work. While leaving her behind, I kissed her face. In that paralytic state and a garbled voice, she said,
"Why are you kissing me, go kiss the world." Her river was nearing its journey, at the confluence of life and death, this woman who came to India as a refugee, raised by a widowed Mother, no more educated than high school, married to an anonymous government servant whose last salary was Rupees Three Hundred, robbed of her eyesight by fate and crowned by adversity was telling me to go and kiss the world!
Success to me is about Vision. It is the ability to rise above the immediacy of pain. It is about imagination. It is about sensitivity to small people. It is about building inclusion. It is about connectedness to a larger world existence. It is about personal tenacity. It is about giving back more to life than you take out of it. It is about creating extra-ordinary success with ordinary lives.
Thank you very much; I wish you good luck and God's speed. Go! kiss the world. 

5 day chart

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SENSEX AS ON 23.10.09

COMMENTS ON CHART

SENSEX AS ON 21.10.09

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AS EXPECTED WE GOT RESISTED IN 17300/17800 AREA AND CORRECTED .WE R NOW POISED AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE AGAIN. WE R JUST ON TRENDLINE RUNNING FROM MARCH LOWS. WE HAVE BOUNCED NO OF TIMES SO FAR. WILL WE SURVIVE THIS TIME?

 

ONE MORE SUPPORT IS AT TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION UPPER TRENDLINE.

 

 

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UPDATE AT 4.13 P.M.

WE HAVE BROKEN TRENDLINE RUNNING FROM MARCH LOWS AND WE SAW SELL OFF. TODAY'S LOW AT 16721 IS ON PURPLE TRENDLINE I HAD SHOWN IN CHART AND WE HAVE TAKEN SUPPORT THERE.IT IS UPPER TRENDLINE OF TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION.WE MAY SEE A SMALL BOUNCE FROM HERE WHICH CAN BE USED FOR SELLING.

SENSEX AS ON 16.10.09

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5 day chart as on 16.10.09

look at charts , as expected and shown in chart we have maintained uptrend.watch green trend line.on break of the same we can see correction.

ADANI ENT

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century textile

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