at present what i believe is that major bullish or bearish trend will be decided on confirmation that are we retracing fall from 21109 to 15135 as a pull back and again we will be back down wards?( Bearish View)
or we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on path of new bull run from 15135 and we are going to make a new high (Bullish View ).
BEARISH VIEW :
to negate bearish view, we should retrace maximum up to 80 % of fall, that is 80 % level of fall from 21109 to 15135 ( 5974 points ) comes around 19914.so if we cross 19914 than bearish view should be negated and we should think that new bull run has started.
for this view we should correct in A-B-C pattern and we might have completed A(15135 to 18524), B (18524 to 15748) and we are on C ( 15748 to 19137 so far).
further options :
# it is possible we might have completed C at 19137 and we are on bigger C down wards.( i consider this view as less probable option.)
a ) we are C-4 down wards from 19137 and we have tested 18535 so far, crossover of 19000 zone will confirm that C - 4 is over and we are on C -5 up wards with maxm target of 19914.
b) we have not completed C -4 at 18535 and we are still on down move from 19137. in this case we have got very good support around 18415 , 38.2 % retracement level and level by other fibo calculations.we complete correction somewhere between 17973 to 18535 and start up move as C - 5
in any case we shd not break 17973 , in that case it will be established that we have completed up move started from 17251.and subsequently it may indicate ABC correction completed at 19137 and we are on bigger C down wards.
BULLISH VIEW :
we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on new bull run . we are on first wave of up move from 15135.
we are on sub wave 3.4 from 19137 and after completing correction we will be on 3.5 to be followed by sub wave 4 down wards ( correcting up move from 15748 to top to be made ) and sub wave 5 taking us to new high between 22500 to 24800.
sir,
ReplyDeletegm. it's grinding... any short term view???
tks n advance.
sensex breached range of 18850 to 18550 for couple of days and made low of 18393 on RBI policy day. it reversed from there.still not able to cross 18850 zone convincingly, may be waiting for out come of US elections ! today's up move may be due to short coverings also.most boring days ! difficult to take a definite call.on RBI policy day had taken 5500 put and 5900 call , put gave good gains now 5900 call in profits , but seems i have to book that also tomorrow.......otherwise time decay will erode gains.for nifty i think 5750 may be crucial zone for bulls to cross convincingly for 5900/5950 zone.........
ReplyDeleteIt seems there has been a decisive cross of 5750, must be getting confirmation of the same by the weekend.
Deleteekamber
Dear Ekamber,
Deleteas expected US election results gave a direction and momentum yesterday to break zone of 5750/18850.looking at sub wave structure( 5 sub waves ) for up move from 18393 to 18973 it seems we might have completed first upmoving sub wave and we are correcting it.now the gap formed at 18590-18683/5650-5680 will give a strong support. fall below this zone will compel us to think otherwise.
Dear Pankaj
DeleteThank you for the update.
regards
ekamber
first support at gap , levels of 18680/5680 tested today. now next zone 18590-5650 is crucial.if we open with gap down below 18590-5650 zone , it becomes island reversal, a bearish pattern.let us c strength of this zone.....5650-5680 zone.
ReplyDeletePankaj-ji
ReplyDeletethanks for ur follow up. following due to busy schedule not able to sit infront of system. very much thanks once again abt island reversal. v r below some impt. level + hawala price too..but this idiotic gap up gap down unavoidable :( if v follow pure technical also sometimes getting hurt or becoz of whipsaw.
hence am trading only based on "weekly" and clapping my hands on week end in these kind of situation.
WISHING YOU AND YOUR FAMILY AND BLOG VISITORS A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS DIWALI. Let us see "crackers" on which side. :)
regards
Island reversal is just mentioned to show but since we are not at a new high it is not significant.
ReplyDeletepersonally i am optimistic for market ..........
thanks for wishes and reciprocate same for u and yr family members and all blog readers!
interesting sub waves !
ReplyDeletea) 18973 to 18783 fall of 190 points
b) 18783 to 18894 rise of 111 points
c) 18894 to 18607 fall of 287 points
b = apprx 61% of a
c = 1.5 x a
c = 2.61 x b
have we completed correction at today's low at 18607 which is near gap support zone at 18590
moreover fall from 18973 to 18607 = 366 points is apprx 61% of rise from 18393 to 18973 = 580 points.
close above 18850 or below 18550 will give strong move,i am optimistic on crossing 18850..........
optimism fails !
ReplyDeletemkt below gap area !.........
oh!!!!!!!! fails???? but i am seeing sir for a bounce as 18415 done it may bounce last time it took exactly from ur levels.
ReplyDeletecomparing to dow fall still v r "surviving" not showing bigger falls means something cooking for upside as mid to long term undertone is bullish??
pls. keep posting ur updates on sensex it's simply understandable by any "layman" :)
May god bless u
sir - if gap area protects @ eod wat's ur opinion? i feel round off figure 18500 may protect??
ReplyDeleteas expected sharp move on break of range, on down side below 18550.
ReplyDeletenext gap support is there !
more over it is on trend line connecting 15748 and 16598.
till we break 17973 , we must be on long side with caution.
long positions attractive now . we must end correction soon and see a bounce .
interesting charts and astro technical comments from a blog
ReplyDeletehttp://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/
http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/2012/11
sir - it has given bounce from 415 but the gap area not sustained. i believe it will "listen to you" :)
ReplyDeletehv a good day