+ve divergence in reliance ind?

views please on +ve divergence.

sensex in a range since last 7 months

sensex monthly chart is attached herewith. we are moving in a range of apprx 15500 to 17500.

frustating, boring , lackluster  consolidation!

MIRAGE 2.0 ANALYSIS BY DR. SPANDAN JOSHI

Please look at RSI trend. Has it broken the trend line? We shall know within 2/3 days, i.e. on 9^th or 10^th March. Look at the volumes as well. We shall check if they increase. Which ever the way market goes would be a trend for next week/month, for sure.

 

If you observe the trend line, you may notice that the upmove has a strong resistance at 17300/17400 level and that should met by 10^th March or so as per our time target previously discussed.

 

I wrote last weekend that : If "C-2-C" wave is same as "C-2-A" wave it comes to 900 points, i.e. 17075 + 900 points = 16975 and that comes to overall 62% upmove target of 16973. This is my preferred scenario at this moment. We have closed at 16994 on Friday the 5^th March 2010

 

The exact level comes to 17362 and we mustn't cross it even on intra-day basis. If we do, we have to assume that the wave count is wrong.

 

Last time we explained alternative scenario. However I am not very sure how to count 5^th of the 5^th. It looks still an odd wave to me and I have not much of a clue. 5-5 is labeled but I lack confidence as I can't count sub waves. One method is A-B and C where C is 62% of A. But that too look not very promising as sub wave A doesn't make much sense to me as far as further breakdown of it. So in short, 5-5 looks very much an un-explained wave. Hence I know that if my wave count goes wrong (Closing over 17362) what is the reason behind it.

 

So let us go from there. If 5-5 is completed we are already on A and then B. (2^nd wave and that has A, B and C)

 

If not we may continue to move up to possibly 17260 and then after to 18500 as per approximately 80% of the entire fall from 21200 to 7700. However I would refrain from buying as it could be a very last wave of the entire rally (Wave B or Wave 1)and usually I prefer to avoid buying on a very last wave simply because of greater chances of getting "Stuck".

 

 

 

 

SENSEX AS ON 5.3.10

COMMENTS ON CHART.
*******************************************
UPDATE AS ON 9.03.2010

TODAY WE HAVE STOPPED MAKING HIGHER TOPS AFTER 6 DAYS.

sensex as on 3.3.2010

CHART ATTACHED
******************************************************************
UPDATE AS ON 5.3.10

WE REACHED TODAY AT 17098, ALMOST TRAGET OF INVERSE H N S ACHIEVED.

Mirage Version 1.9 on 27/02/2010 by Dr. Spandan Joshi

As we discussed before, we suggested that sensex may have completed C1 and could be already on an upmove labeled as C2. 

C2 comes with three waves, C2-A, C2-B and C2-C. While A and C are upmove, B is a down move.  

I strongly feel that we may have seen C2-A and C2-B. (At 16075)

 Hence we may be on C-2-C wave which itself has five waves. (1 to 5)

Latest wave count can be defined as follows.

 C1 ended at 15652

C2-A ended at 16550

C2-B ended at 16075

C2-C in progress and has seen 16680 yesterday as a top.

 Discussion on Fibonacci levels

 C-1 Total fall from 17790 to 15652 as per C1=2138 Points

 C-2 Targeting 50% of the above 2138 points comes to 16721

C-2 Targeting 62% of the above 2138 points comes to 16973

 C2-A was from 15652 to 16550= 900 points (Rounded figure)

 C2-B was from 16550 to 16075 = 475 Points (52%, close to 50% upmove target as per Fibonacci level)

 C2-C has seen already a level of 16680 which is an upmove of 605 points.

 If "C-2-C" wave is same as "C-2-A" wave it comes to 900 points, i.e. 17075 + 900 points = 16975 and that comes to overall 62% upmove target of 16973. This is my preferred scenario at this moment.

 If we move up to only 62% of 900 points (C-2-A) then it comes to 558 points 16633. In such case we may have already seen the top.

 Discussion on "Time"

 We have taken 8 days to see A wave and 3 for B wave. We already have seen 5 days to see C wave. We may have 3 more days or so for its completion. (Or we may see 13 days in total means 8 more days or so) That means we may see top around 3^rd of March or 10^th of March 2010. (Plus or minus 2 days as per Intra-day adjustment)

 I feel once we finish a last upmove of this C2, (C2-C-5) we may slide heavily as per C3. Generally 3^rd wave always makes its mark. I expect it to cross 200 EMA. It comes with 5 giant waves. It makes a significant impact on market. It comes with fierce pace and velocity. Indeed it brings its own environment with it.

 Time wise I feel 10^th March to 20^th April may see tremendous downward velocity. This period must be watched carefully.

 Discussion on Alternative Scenario

 

If this was a Bull Run, we may see an end of correction by C. In such case we may have already seen A as well as B and we may see a very last down fall as per C wave. This is because our C1 becomes A and our C2 becomes B wave.

 Generally such Bull-run corrections are lesser in damaging and quick in nature. (2 to 3 months only instead of 6 to 8 months) In such case, we may be on Wave-2 of a new Bull run that might have started at 7697.

 Wave count can be as follows.

 Wave 1 = 7697 to 17790

Wave 2 = 17790 to 15652 so far.

 

• Wave 2-A = 17790 to 15652
• Wave 2-B = 15652 to 1680 and still going on
• Wave 2-C is pending.

Normally in such cases, C wave's length is 1.62% of A wave's length. Our A wave was of 2138 points and C wave can be 3463 points. This may bring sensex to 13237.

My analysis is completed.

Best Regards

Spandan Joshi

 

 

SENSEX AS ON 26.2.10

COMMENTS ON CHART.

LINK FOR CNBC

YOU CAN WATCH BUDGET ON CNBC ON YOUR COMPUTER.

LINK IS HERE:

http://www.moneycontrol.com/tv/index.html

FASLE BREAK OUTS

LOOK AT ATTACHED CHARTS OF RPOWER AND RELIANCE

INDUSTRIES. THEY ARE CLASSIC CASES OF FALSE BREAK 

OUTS WHICH TRAPS WHICH BECOME A BIG TRAP. 

MARKET CONSOLIDATING BEFORE BUDGET

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED.
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UPDATE AS ON 24.2.10
MARKET CONTINUES CONSOLIDATION.
WILL F N O EXPIRY TOMORROW HELP TO BREAK THE RANGE BEFORE BUDGET?