As we discussed before, we suggested that sensex may have completed C1 and could be already on an upmove labeled as C2.
C2 comes with three waves, C2-A, C2-B and C2-C. While A and C are upmove, B is a down move.
I strongly feel that we may have seen C2-A and C2-B. (At 16075)
Hence we may be on C-2-C wave which itself has five waves. (1 to 5)
Latest wave count can be defined as follows.
C1 ended at 15652
C2-A ended at 16550
C2-B ended at 16075
C2-C in progress and has seen 16680 yesterday as a top.
Discussion on Fibonacci levels
C-1 Total fall from 17790 to 15652 as per C1=2138 Points
C-2 Targeting 50% of the above 2138 points comes to 16721
C-2 Targeting 62% of the above 2138 points comes to 16973
C2-A was from 15652 to 16550= 900 points (Rounded figure)
C2-B was from 16550 to 16075 = 475 Points (52%, close to 50% upmove target as per Fibonacci level)
C2-C has seen already a level of 16680 which is an upmove of 605 points.
If "C-2-C" wave is same as "C-2-A" wave it comes to 900 points, i.e. 17075 + 900 points = 16975 and that comes to overall 62% upmove target of 16973. This is my preferred scenario at this moment.
If we move up to only 62% of 900 points (C-2-A) then it comes to 558 points 16633. In such case we may have already seen the top.
Discussion on "Time"
We have taken 8 days to see A wave and 3 for B wave. We already have seen 5 days to see C wave. We may have 3 more days or so for its completion. (Or we may see 13 days in total means 8 more days or so) That means we may see top around 3rd of March or 10th of March 2010. (Plus or minus 2 days as per Intra-day adjustment)
I feel once we finish a last upmove of this C2, (C2-C-5) we may slide heavily as per C3. Generally 3rd wave always makes its mark. I expect it to cross 200 EMA. It comes with 5 giant waves. It makes a significant impact on market. It comes with fierce pace and velocity. Indeed it brings its own environment with it.
Time wise I feel 10th March to 20th April may see tremendous downward velocity. This period must be watched carefully.
Discussion on Alternative Scenario
If this was a Bull Run, we may see an end of correction by C. In such case we may have already seen A as well as B and we may see a very last down fall as per C wave. This is because our C1 becomes A and our C2 becomes B wave.
Generally such Bull-run corrections are lesser in damaging and quick in nature. (2 to 3 months only instead of 6 to 8 months) In such case, we may be on Wave-2 of a new Bull run that might have started at 7697.
Wave count can be as follows.
Wave 1 = 7697 to 17790
Wave 2 = 17790 to 15652 so far.
- Wave 2-A = 17790 to 15652
- Wave 2-B = 15652 to 1680 and still going on
- Wave 2-C is pending.
Normally in such cases, C wave's length is 1.62% of A wave's length. Our A wave was of 2138 points and C wave can be 3463 points. This may bring sensex to 13237.
My analysis is completed.
Best Regards
Spandan Joshi
