Mirage Version 1.9 on 27/02/2010 by Dr. Spandan Joshi

As we discussed before, we suggested that sensex may have completed C1 and could be already on an upmove labeled as C2. 

C2 comes with three waves, C2-A, C2-B and C2-C. While A and C are upmove, B is a down move.  

I strongly feel that we may have seen C2-A and C2-B. (At 16075)

 Hence we may be on C-2-C wave which itself has five waves. (1 to 5)

Latest wave count can be defined as follows.

 C1 ended at 15652

C2-A ended at 16550

C2-B ended at 16075

C2-C in progress and has seen 16680 yesterday as a top.

 Discussion on Fibonacci levels

 C-1 Total fall from 17790 to 15652 as per C1=2138 Points

 C-2 Targeting 50% of the above 2138 points comes to 16721

C-2 Targeting 62% of the above 2138 points comes to 16973

 C2-A was from 15652 to 16550= 900 points (Rounded figure)

 C2-B was from 16550 to 16075 = 475 Points (52%, close to 50% upmove target as per Fibonacci level)

 C2-C has seen already a level of 16680 which is an upmove of 605 points.

 If "C-2-C" wave is same as "C-2-A" wave it comes to 900 points, i.e. 17075 + 900 points = 16975 and that comes to overall 62% upmove target of 16973. This is my preferred scenario at this moment.

 If we move up to only 62% of 900 points (C-2-A) then it comes to 558 points 16633. In such case we may have already seen the top.

 Discussion on "Time"

 We have taken 8 days to see A wave and 3 for B wave. We already have seen 5 days to see C wave. We may have 3 more days or so for its completion. (Or we may see 13 days in total means 8 more days or so) That means we may see top around 3^rd of March or 10^th of March 2010. (Plus or minus 2 days as per Intra-day adjustment)

 I feel once we finish a last upmove of this C2, (C2-C-5) we may slide heavily as per C3. Generally 3^rd wave always makes its mark. I expect it to cross 200 EMA. It comes with 5 giant waves. It makes a significant impact on market. It comes with fierce pace and velocity. Indeed it brings its own environment with it.

 Time wise I feel 10^th March to 20^th April may see tremendous downward velocity. This period must be watched carefully.

 Discussion on Alternative Scenario

 

If this was a Bull Run, we may see an end of correction by C. In such case we may have already seen A as well as B and we may see a very last down fall as per C wave. This is because our C1 becomes A and our C2 becomes B wave.

 Generally such Bull-run corrections are lesser in damaging and quick in nature. (2 to 3 months only instead of 6 to 8 months) In such case, we may be on Wave-2 of a new Bull run that might have started at 7697.

 Wave count can be as follows.

 Wave 1 = 7697 to 17790

Wave 2 = 17790 to 15652 so far.

 

• Wave 2-A = 17790 to 15652
• Wave 2-B = 15652 to 1680 and still going on
• Wave 2-C is pending.

Normally in such cases, C wave's length is 1.62% of A wave's length. Our A wave was of 2138 points and C wave can be 3463 points. This may bring sensex to 13237.

My analysis is completed.

Best Regards

Spandan Joshi