MIRAGE 2.0 ANALYSIS BY DR. SPANDAN JOSHI

Please look at RSI trend. Has it broken the trend line? We shall know within 2/3 days, i.e. on 9^th or 10^th March. Look at the volumes as well. We shall check if they increase. Which ever the way market goes would be a trend for next week/month, for sure.

 

If you observe the trend line, you may notice that the upmove has a strong resistance at 17300/17400 level and that should met by 10^th March or so as per our time target previously discussed.

 

I wrote last weekend that : If "C-2-C" wave is same as "C-2-A" wave it comes to 900 points, i.e. 17075 + 900 points = 16975 and that comes to overall 62% upmove target of 16973. This is my preferred scenario at this moment. We have closed at 16994 on Friday the 5^th March 2010

 

The exact level comes to 17362 and we mustn't cross it even on intra-day basis. If we do, we have to assume that the wave count is wrong.

 

Last time we explained alternative scenario. However I am not very sure how to count 5^th of the 5^th. It looks still an odd wave to me and I have not much of a clue. 5-5 is labeled but I lack confidence as I can't count sub waves. One method is A-B and C where C is 62% of A. But that too look not very promising as sub wave A doesn't make much sense to me as far as further breakdown of it. So in short, 5-5 looks very much an un-explained wave. Hence I know that if my wave count goes wrong (Closing over 17362) what is the reason behind it.

 

So let us go from there. If 5-5 is completed we are already on A and then B. (2^nd wave and that has A, B and C)

 

If not we may continue to move up to possibly 17260 and then after to 18500 as per approximately 80% of the entire fall from 21200 to 7700. However I would refrain from buying as it could be a very last wave of the entire rally (Wave B or Wave 1)and usually I prefer to avoid buying on a very last wave simply because of greater chances of getting "Stuck".