SENSEX

we are very close to rsi trendline in weekly chart.

crossover or reversal will indicate further moves.

UPDATES : MIRAGE 2.0 ANALYSIS BY DR. SPANDAN JOSHI

Dear Pankajbhai,   Regarding Mirage and technical analysis as per 2.0,   1 We have crossed 17362 however with very thin volumes. (12K only)   2 Regarding RSI, we have touched it just now at 17510.   3 Regarding my timing, we have gone just past 10th March + 2 days, i.e. 15th March.Susequently sensex crossed 17362 on 16th March.   4 Regarding 100 EMA, we have been closing 50% days over 100 EMA since we have been down or below it. (21 days?, I can't remember) (Now we are up for 11 days)   5 Regarding Fibonacci, we have crossed 80% milestone of the entire down fall.   Hence all parameters fall in to a new upmove from 15652 unless,   AAA:  We form a bear candle, i.e. go above yesterday's close, like just now at 17510 but close below yesterday's close with slightly higher volumes,   BBB: We do not close above 17362 odd levels greater than 3 days.   CCC: We break 16900 very very soon and with heavy volumes. (I.e. within next week)    DDD: We , Like Daily Bear candle, also form a weekly bear candle, I.e. start with higher than previous week's levels and end below it.   EEE The Odds will be in favour of a fresh new up move if, we close 3 days above 17370 as well as week to week based higher close too.   The only major difefrence this time is that Mid/Small caps are not moving much while heavy weights are.   We shall know by end of today or by tomorrow where we are.   Regards   Spandan

sensex

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

MARKET?

last week i mentioned that we are reaching trend decider 80% retracement levels (of recent fall from 17790 to 15652) 17362/5183. but last week was ranged bound and we moved in small range of 17028 to 17245.till we have not crossed these levels . rsi trendline is also not crossed. in last week gap area 17000-17025 has given good support.

on positive side still we are trading above 50dma/100 dma.we have maintained higher high and higher low pattern on weekly basis.


what next?

we may see some action on breaking last week's consolidation range 17028-17245.

break of 17028 will be the first sign of weakness.short term traders must keep it as stop loss.for medium term stop loss levels given last week at 50dma/100dma zone at 16800/5000 will be same.

reliance has shown some strength in last week after a long time. it can show further strength till it is closed above 1020.

being a heavy weightage share it is helping in maintaining indices levels.

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UPDATE AS ON 16.3.10

RELIANCE ON FIRE ! 1071

CHEERS!

RELIANCE INVERSE H n S?

LOOK AT CHART
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UPDATE AS ON 16.3.10

RELIANCE HAS ACHIEVED TARGET ON INVERSE H N S

CHEERS!

+ve divergence in reliance ind?

views please on +ve divergence.

sensex in a range since last 7 months

sensex monthly chart is attached herewith. we are moving in a range of apprx 15500 to 17500.

frustating, boring , lackluster  consolidation!

MIRAGE 2.0 ANALYSIS BY DR. SPANDAN JOSHI

Please look at RSI trend. Has it broken the trend line? We shall know within 2/3 days, i.e. on 9^th or 10^th March. Look at the volumes as well. We shall check if they increase. Which ever the way market goes would be a trend for next week/month, for sure.

 

If you observe the trend line, you may notice that the upmove has a strong resistance at 17300/17400 level and that should met by 10^th March or so as per our time target previously discussed.

 

I wrote last weekend that : If "C-2-C" wave is same as "C-2-A" wave it comes to 900 points, i.e. 17075 + 900 points = 16975 and that comes to overall 62% upmove target of 16973. This is my preferred scenario at this moment. We have closed at 16994 on Friday the 5^th March 2010

 

The exact level comes to 17362 and we mustn't cross it even on intra-day basis. If we do, we have to assume that the wave count is wrong.

 

Last time we explained alternative scenario. However I am not very sure how to count 5^th of the 5^th. It looks still an odd wave to me and I have not much of a clue. 5-5 is labeled but I lack confidence as I can't count sub waves. One method is A-B and C where C is 62% of A. But that too look not very promising as sub wave A doesn't make much sense to me as far as further breakdown of it. So in short, 5-5 looks very much an un-explained wave. Hence I know that if my wave count goes wrong (Closing over 17362) what is the reason behind it.

 

So let us go from there. If 5-5 is completed we are already on A and then B. (2^nd wave and that has A, B and C)

 

If not we may continue to move up to possibly 17260 and then after to 18500 as per approximately 80% of the entire fall from 21200 to 7700. However I would refrain from buying as it could be a very last wave of the entire rally (Wave B or Wave 1)and usually I prefer to avoid buying on a very last wave simply because of greater chances of getting "Stuck".

 

 

 

 

SENSEX AS ON 5.3.10

COMMENTS ON CHART.
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UPDATE AS ON 9.03.2010

TODAY WE HAVE STOPPED MAKING HIGHER TOPS AFTER 6 DAYS.

sensex as on 3.3.2010

CHART ATTACHED
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UPDATE AS ON 5.3.10

WE REACHED TODAY AT 17098, ALMOST TRAGET OF INVERSE H N S ACHIEVED.