Spandan Joshi's Updates

Mirage 1.7 Updates on 07th February 2010

Pl. look at the following text/updates for last 3 months and see how you feel about.
===================================================
Written on *************29th November--------------->>>>>>>I firmly believe that we have completed B-C-4 (Downfall)

This lasted for 2 weeks and taken us to 15330, a fall of 2163 points
From 17493.

The fifth wave has two targets
123% and 162%

They come to 17990 and 18834
====================================================
Written on *************3rd of December------------>>>>>>Yes, you are right.

A prolonged correction may set in once we complete 5th wave, which is
a last wave. However 5th wave may itself take 2/3 months. 5th wave has
commenced on ***********5th of November****** (from 15300). (If the count is correct)

Please understand that my attempt may go wrong.
======================================================
(I was on holidays from 10th December to 7th January)
======================================================
Written on ***********09th January ---------->>>>>>>>The target comes to 17806 as per B-C-5-3

And indeed, we saw 17790 as a peak so far. We came very very close to
projected figure of 17806.

Hence it is safer to assume that we could have completed 3rd of 5th of
c of Larger B. (B-C-5-3) We may already be on B-C-5-4. This is a small
down wave.

It targets 17200 or 17000. In worst cases can go down to 16800 as
well.
However we will rebound from one of the levels mentioned above. The
Rebound will be labeled as 5th of 5th, a very last up move of entire
Rally as per our B wave and our proposed model.
=====================================================
Please check a significant updates when I proposed a strategy. Normally I don't write long.
=====================================================
Written a long and significant update on 16th January 2010------------>>>>Latest Updates on 16/01/2010
========================== ==========================

I feel that we haven't completed 4th of 5th yet. Hence downside to
17200/1700 and 16800 (In worst cases) is open.

The current wave as an up move can be labeled as 4-b. (B-C-4-b) It may
get completed soon or has already completed. In such case we shall
see,

1 A small up move on Monday followed by significant downfall to 17200
first and 17000 later. (Worst cases to 16800)

2 Or a straight downfall that starts on Monday to above levels.

3 After 1 or 2, we shall see a last but significant up move which will
Attempt to re-test 17790 first and then a new high somewhere around
17800 to 18900 with possible targets of 18250. (Give and take of 350
Points)

As per the above model, which we have been following for last 10
Months, suggests that we shall be on a very last up move of entire
Rally within days. Such wave lasts for 4 to 6 weeks.

Strategy:

Profit booking and even exiting market can be considered at this
Juncture, especially if you have an ability to pick up stocks again.
No market can go always in one direction and Indian indices have fine
Journey from 7697 to 17790. Although fall doesn't look like an
Imminent event, buying can be forgotten for time being.

There will be a significant shift in sectors. There will be new market
Leaders. There will be new themes and newer ideas. We still don't know
Much about it. I feel better to be safer than sorry.

Personally I exited on 70/80% of my positions at 15600 but re-entered
in November on correction to 15300 and so on. Even that investment has
grown significantly and I am planning to offload some in near future.

I also witnessed that "not so good stocks" are moving higher. I hear
about stock names that I never heard before. Operators are
entertaining retailers with such calls. Retailers are making lots of
money and lots of easy money. Such time can't last forever.

I wish you all well,

Spandan Joshi
==========================================================
Written on *********24th January-Another long update.-------->>>>>>.
My latest analysis as per Mirage 1.5 on 24/01/2010 is as follows.
==========================================================

In last update I mentioned about targets of 4th of 5th wave as
Follows.

1 17200
2 17000
3 16800

And we have seen all three targets and seen sensex dipping to 16608
briefly intra-day.

Having said that it has closed 250 points higher, thanks to (superb)
DII's buying. (Nearly 2K Crores)

In coming days we shall see completion of 4th wave and journey towards
a very last of the last sub wave called 5th wave.

4th wave was down ward going while 5th is upward going.

If we assume that 4th wave is over at 16608 then we can set up targets
for 5th wave as per 123% or 162% of fall of 1182 points (17790 minus
16608)

The targets are 1454 points or 1915 points. Hence targets are,

1 18062 (123% upmove of the entire fall)
2 18523 (162% upmove of the entire fall)

These are targets of 5th wave unless it fails.

The most common point where a last OR 5th wave fails is on 4th wave.
(preceding one)
--------------------------------------------------------

Hence one has to be cautious on buying considering the same.

Please watch out for 5th wave failure.

Signs and symptoms of 5th wave failure are as follows.

1 Breaking of 16540 and remain below for > 3 days

2 Breaking of 16210 and remain below for > 3 days

3 Limited upside to 17200 only and if goes above, mustn't stay for
Greater than 3 days.

4 Goes below the last bottom made before crossing the last upmove target. I.e. it should go below 15725 without going below 16550.

If any of the above doesn't happen then we shall progress to 5th of
5th as usual, anticipating 18K. (C-5-5)

Best wishes and Regards

Spandan
===============================================================
Written on **********7th February---------------->>>>>> That is all I have to say today.

Elliott's doesn't give time but 6th January High is not crossed yet. (17790)

More importantly 4th February bottom of 15980 is breached. We are at 15915.

We are still below 5, 20, 50 and 100 EMA. We have never been below 100 EMA since March 2009.

Secondly 50 EMA is crossed over 20 EMA. That happened only in October 2008 and March 2009.

RSI 14 day has been below 30 for 5 days and that is last seen in October 2008.

We may although bounce from 200 EMA which is at 15600/4560.

16580 is my most loved figure on upside.

Detailed analysis of next wave will be given in next week's release, but I may use a new thread.

Best wishes,

Spandan