Fwd: Mirage 1.6 & History repeats

Dear Friends,
 
i am forwarding Spandan Joshi's analysis.
 
Pankaj Shah

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Spandan Joshi <joshispandan@yahoo.co.uk>
Date: 30 January 2010 16:14
Subject: Mirage 1.6 & History repeats

Dear all,   History repeats. May not be for wave formations but I prepared my first Elliott's on 30th January 2008 after badly beaten on 21st and 22nd January 2008  by heavy selling. (FIIs in excess of 2.3K crores.)   Same amount of stocks sold on 21st and 22nd January and around in 2010.   I have also prepared Elliott's today. (30/01/2010)   In previous version of Mirage 1.5 following was written a week ago when we were still on 17K.   Please review them very carefully followed by looking at the attachment.   My latest (previous)  analysis as per Mirage 1.5 on 24/01/2010 is as follows. ==================================================================== In last update I mentioend about targets of 4th of 5th wave as follows.   1 17200 2 17000 3 16800   And we have seen all three targets and seen sensex dipping to 16608 briefly intra-day.   Having said that it has closed 250 points higher, thanks to (superb) DII's buying. (nearly 2K Crores)   In coming days we shall see completion of 4th wave and journey towards a  very last of the last subwave called 5th wave.   4th wave was down ward going while 5th is upward going.   If we assume that 4th wave is over at 16608 then we can set up targets for 5th wave as per 123% or 162% of fall of 1182 points (17790 minus 16608)   The targets are 1454 points or 1915 points. Hence targets are,   1 18062 (123% upmove of the entire fall) 2 18523 (162% upmove of the entire fall)   These are targets of 5th wave unless it fails.   The most common point where a last OR 5th wave fails is on 4th wave. (preceding one) Hence one has to be cautious on buying considering the same. Please watch out for 5th wave failure.   Signs and symptoms of 5th wave failure are as follows.   1 Breaking of 16540 and remain below for > 3 days 2 Breaking of 16210 and remain below for > 3 days 3 Limited upside to 17200 only and if goes above,  mustn't stay for greater than 3 days.   If any of the above doesn't happen then we shall progress to 5th of 5th as usual, anticipating 18K. (C-5-5)   Best wishes and Regards Spandan =================================================   Mirage 1.6 (30/01/2010) =============================   I am in an anticipation that 5th of 5th is a failure wave and hence prepared the latest Elliott's at 1.00 am on 30/01/2010.   However all is not lost and a "Extra ordinary" up move over 16560 and 17200 will surely save the game in favour of 5th wave. In that case one has to remain with 18K or 18.5K targets.   Having said that, there are certainly early signs of 5th failure seen clearly. Not crossing 16700/16800 in coming days as well as goign below 16210 would strengthn the case for larger C wave. Sensex below 15300 would confirm it. (Lower bottom/Lower Top)   You all know that C comes with five giant waves. C1, C3 and C5 goes down and the curernt down move can be part of C-1. C2 and C4 goes up.   It looks like we may be on C1, subwave 4, which is small upmove, targetting 16600/16800.  This generally followed by C1-5, a last down wave and that may target 16210/15700.   C-2 targets can only be given once I get C1-5's final stop.   More later   Friends may comment.   Regards   Spandan