HAPPY NEW YEAR !

Sat, Dec 29, 2012 at 15:14 Market rally may continue in 2013: Bejan Daruwalla

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/astrology/market-rally-may-continue2013-bejan-daruwalla_801174.html

RELIANCE AS ON 28.12.2012

RELAINCE is trading in a strong resistance area around 850. on crossing this zone decisively it can show more strength.

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update on 17.01.2013

reliance on fire..today seen 893........

cheers !

TECHNICAL VIEWS

TECHNICAL VIEW FROM VIVEK PATIL

http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_TechnicalOutlook_2013.pdf

TECHNICAL VIEWS FROM ICICI:

http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_TechnicalOutlook_2013.pdf

TECHNICAL VIEW OF LOKESHWARRI S.K., BUSINESS LINE 

December 30, 2012:  

Both the Sensex and the Nifty are set to end 2012 with aplomb, close to their yearly highs.

The first six months of the year were volatile with the indices staging a sharp rally in January and February only to give it all up by June. But the uptrend that began at the June trough continues to be in place towards the end of the year.

BSE mid and small cap indices that had suffered sharper declines in 2011 gained 38 per cent and 32 per cent respectively. But the long-term trend in these indices continues to be down. If the market turns volatile in 2013, the smaller stocks could see sharper declines.

LONG-TERM TREND

There is no alteration in the long-term trend we had outlined in the yearly outlook published for 2011 or 2012. To recount, we are assuming that the new cycle of a secular bull market began in 2001. One wave of this cycle ended at the January 2008 peak.

The second wave did not last long but was strong enough to lead to the assumption that the third wave of the secular bull market began in March 2009. In other words, it is highly unlikely that the Sensex will go back to 8047 or the Nifty to 2539 in the coming years. We stay with the first two long-term targets for the Sensex at 39,337 and 58,743 (to be achieved in the next 10 years). This count continues to be valid unless the Sensex closes below 13,000.

The corresponding long-term targets for the Nifty are 12,718 and 19,011. The long-term outlook will have to be altered only if the Nifty closes below 4000.

We had discussed an alternative count as well last year, the possibility of the move from 8047 in Sensex being the fifth of the long-term impulse wave. In this event, the supports for Sensex stay at 14,775 and 13,044. Nifty’s supports are at 4436 and 3916. According to this count too, the downside over the long term could be limited to 13,000 on the Sensex and around 4,000 on the Nifty.

The first part of the third wave from 8047 in the Sensex ended at the November 2010 peak of 21,108. The second part of this wave appears to be unfolding currently. The pattern thus far suggests that instead of being fast and deep, it will be long-drawn and shallow. We are already two years into this corrective move and it can easily extend for a year or more.

That sets the long-term trading range of 15,000 to 22,000 for the Sensex and between 4,500 and 6,500 in Nifty.

2013 OUTLOOK

In other words, 2013 could be more volatile than 2012. Sensex and Nifty could move on to new life-time highs, but it would be best to tread with caution at such times. There is the possibility of the indices reversing lower and going into sharp declines too.

We are not very clear on the pattern that the index is currently forming, but the indices could form a higher bottom in the next leg of the decline. Sensex could halt its decline around 17,000 and the Nifty around 5,000. Declines would, therefore, provide stock-picking opportunities for the long term.

The range for 2013 for Sensex is between 17,000 and 22,000 with outer limits at 15,000 and 31,500. The range for Nifty is between 5,000 and 6,500 with outer range at 4,500 and 8720. We will revisit the outlook during the year if the outer limits are breached.

TATA STEEL AS ON 18.12.2012

COMMENTS ON CHART !

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UPDATE AT THE END OF THE DAY .

BREAK OUT WITH GOOD VOLUMES AND TATA STEEL MOVES TO 415........

CHEERS .........

update as on 19.12.2012
tata steel tested 424 today.
cheers.......

TORRENT POWER AS ON 3.12.2012

COMMENTS ON CHART

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update as on 19.12.2012
target of traingle break out achived. torrent power tested 186 today.

SENSEX MONTHLY CHART AS ON 30.11.2012

Look at Monthly charts. Comments on charts.

SENSEX MONTHLY CHART AS ON 20.11.2012

comments on chart.

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TV18 broadcast cmp 30.00
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SENSEX VIEWS - BULLISH & BEARISH

at present what i believe is that major bullish or bearish trend will be decided on confirmation that are we retracing fall from 21109 to 15135 as a pull back and again we will be back down wards?( Bearish View)

or we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on path of new bull run from 15135 and we are going to make a new high (Bullish View ).

BEARISH VIEW :

to negate bearish view, we should retrace maximum up to 80 % of fall, that is 80 % level of fall from 21109 to 15135 ( 5974 points ) comes around 19914.so if we cross 19914 than bearish view should be negated and we should think that new bull run has started. 

for this view we should correct in A-B-C pattern and we might have completed A(15135 to 18524), B (18524 to 15748) and we are on C ( 15748 to 19137 so far).

further options :

# it is possible we might have completed C at 19137 and we are on bigger C  down wards.( i consider this view as less probable  option.)

 a ) we are C-4 down wards from 19137 and we have tested 18535 so far, crossover of 19000 zone will confirm that C - 4 is over and we are on C -5 up wards with maxm target of 19914.

b) we have not completed C -4 at 18535 and we are still on down move from 19137. in this case we have got very good support around 18415 , 38.2 % retracement level and level by other fibo calculations.we complete correction somewhere between 17973 to 18535 and start up move as C - 5

in any case we shd not break 17973 , in that case it will be established that we have completed up move started  from 17251.and subsequently it may indicate ABC correction completed at 19137 and we are on bigger C down wards.

BULLISH VIEW : 

we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on new bull run . we are on first wave of up move from 15135.

we are on sub wave 3.4 from 19137 and after completing correction we will be on 3.5 to be followed by sub wave 4 down wards  ( correcting up move from 15748 to top to be made ) and sub wave 5 taking us to new high between 22500 to 24800.