SENSEX VIEWS - BULLISH & BEARISH

at present what i believe is that major bullish or bearish trend will be decided on confirmation that are we retracing fall from 21109 to 15135 as a pull back and again we will be back down wards?( Bearish View)

or we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on path of new bull run from 15135 and we are going to make a new high (Bullish View ).

BEARISH VIEW :

to negate bearish view, we should retrace maximum up to 80 % of fall, that is 80 % level of fall from 21109 to 15135 ( 5974 points ) comes around 19914.so if we cross 19914 than bearish view should be negated and we should think that new bull run has started. 

for this view we should correct in A-B-C pattern and we might have completed A(15135 to 18524), B (18524 to 15748) and we are on C ( 15748 to 19137 so far).

further options :

# it is possible we might have completed C at 19137 and we are on bigger C  down wards.( i consider this view as less probable  option.)

 a ) we are C-4 down wards from 19137 and we have tested 18535 so far, crossover of 19000 zone will confirm that C - 4 is over and we are on C -5 up wards with maxm target of 19914.

b) we have not completed C -4 at 18535 and we are still on down move from 19137. in this case we have got very good support around 18415 , 38.2 % retracement level and level by other fibo calculations.we complete correction somewhere between 17973 to 18535 and start up move as C - 5

in any case we shd not break 17973 , in that case it will be established that we have completed up move started  from 17251.and subsequently it may indicate ABC correction completed at 19137 and we are on bigger C down wards.

BULLISH VIEW : 

we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on new bull run . we are on first wave of up move from 15135.

we are on sub wave 3.4 from 19137 and after completing correction we will be on 3.5 to be followed by sub wave 4 down wards  ( correcting up move from 15748 to top to be made ) and sub wave 5 taking us to new high between 22500 to 24800.

SENSEX 19137 - FIBO RATIOS

 sensex corrected from top of 21109 to 15135. after that we moved up from 15135 to 18524( 3389 points up move ).

from 18524 we came down to 15748 ( 2776 points )

from 15748 we are in up move.so far we have moved up to 19137 ( today's high so far - 3389 points  up move )-- same as first up move of 3389 points

sub waves of moves from 15748 to 19132 are as given below.

(1) 15748 to 17631 ( up move of 1883 points ) 

(2) 17631 to 16598 ( dn move of 1033 points )

(3-i ) 16598 to 17973 ( up move of 1375 points )

(3-ii ) 17973 to 17251 ( dn move of 722 points )

(3-iii ) 17251 to 19137 ( up move of 1886 points )---2.61 times of (3-ii), apprx 1.33 times of (3-i)

so shd we correct now for the up move from 17251 to 19137?

let us c.

Pankaj Shah

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update on 11.10.2012
sensex has corrected from 19137 and made a low of 18581 so far today. 
we may see a bounce from here.on breach of 18552 only we may see more weakness.

cheers!.........
market bounces , sensex 18800+......

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update as on 18.10.2012
sensex bounced back from 18550 zone and shown good strength today.
now a clear range is established 18850 to 18550.break out from this range will give further direction.
if 18550 is broken watch a level of 18415 for a strong support. 

SENSEX AS ON 6.09.2012

comments on chart . 

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update 7.09.2012
with help of positive global markets bounce back from trend line support shown in charts.

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update  21.09.2012

at yesterday's top of 18866 we have completed retracement of 61.8% of total fall from 21109 to 15135. next imp zone comes around 75% to 80% around 19900.

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update   5.10.2012

we have seen high of 19137 today. looking at fibo ratios we may see short term correction.

TORRENT POWER CMP 158 OVER SOLD

TORRENT POWER cmp 158
showing +ve divergence in rsi in weekly as well as Daily charts.
it is showing good volumes also since last 2 days.
accumulation by informed circles?

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update as on 6.09.2012
cmp 181. fast up move book part profit.....

OPTO CIRCUITS AS ON 23.08.2012

Update : stock has given good bounce from expected support zone.....132......cheers !

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comments on chart

80% RETRACEMENT LEVEL TESTED

yesterday we have seen high of 17973 which was 80% of last fall from 18524 to 15749 and doji was formed. today again doji is seen and lower top lower bottom is formed.
as per bearish option if we are  correcting in A-B-C pattern from 18524 and if we have completed A at 15749, B at 17973 and if we are on C downwards now ?.......

let us c......

OPTO CIRCUITS AS ON 23.08.2012

comments on chart

BUY LT FOODS ( DAAWAT ) CMP 48

DAAWAT has given a good break out today post good results.

cmp 48

buy with sl  below 45 on closing basis

target 55

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update :

target of 55 achieved on 25.09.2012

cheers !

update  : 4/10/2012

DAWAT 60......

NEVER BUY A FALLING STOCK

Never average down. When a stock falls significantly below your purchase price, it is foolish to buy more. The stock is clearly not behaving the way you anticipated. Strangely enough, many investors will sell a winning position to lock in a profit because they are afraid the stock will decline and that profit will evaporate. Instead of selling, they should let the stock run as long as it "wants" to and sell only if they get a sell signal. 

They will not sell a stock that has declined because that would lock in the loss. People do not like to admit that they were wrong about a choice once they have made it. Therefore, rather than conclude that they made a bad choice, they convince themselves that the choice was right and that since the stock has declined it is a better deal now than it was originally. In a state of denial, they buy more of the stock that declined. 

If the investor bought right at the line of support, the stock should have risen rather than decline. Expert traders often buy at a line of support because that helps them minimize risk. If the stock falls to a close only 3% below that line of support, the experienced trader knows something is wrong and can sell with minimal loss. However, the amateur denies he made a mistake and buys more. If the stock declines, that is certainly not a buy signal, it is a sell signal. The stock was bought on a certain premise. If that premise proves to be wrong, there is no longer a valid reason for maintaining the position.

If you get a margin call, you have obviously been in the stock too long. A margin call occurs when the stock has had a significant decline. If your reasoning was sound when you purchased, that should not happen. Never meet a margin call. Why throw good money after bad? Save your cash for something that looks more promising rather than put it into something that has already started to fail. 

It is far better to buy more as a stock rises (average up), because it is behaving the way you anticipated. In other words, average up rather than average down. The fact that a stock is moving in the right direction after its purchase is evidence that the thinking behind that purchase was sound. It is an indication that the right decision was made. A stock that has already started to rise above its support, presents far less risk than a stock that already started to decline below its support. 

SOURCE : VFMDIRECT.COM

NIFTY IN A TRAINGLE

Nifty is consolidating in a triangle.