Fwd: Sensex as on 3rd Sep 2009

friends,

 

Venky has done my job today and he has sent to me . so i am just forwarding what he has sent. he has done excellent job.

thanks Venky.

 

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Venky <venky.investing@gmail.com>
Date: 2009/9/3
Subject: Sensex as on 3rd Sep 2009
To: Pankaj shah <pankaj564@gmail.com>

Dear Pankajbhai,

 

The attached chart is same as you have been sharing on the groups and your blog, updated with today's values. I feel there may be a bounce tomorrow to maintain upmove. Also Sensex seems to be moving in a small triangle in this range which may top out at 16,200 or thereabouts.

 

I can't say for sure the extent of the fall, but from the fundamental bad news that is flowing in, it will not be small i think. The extent of correction may be steep.

 

China in 2007 corrected 1.5 months before India like now, Also Baltic Index is falling now (have attached excel sheet here), in china the number of ships waiting at harbor has reduced drastically - this may give rise to a commodity correction as in 2008, CLSA road report on India says rurals situation here is deteriorating fast hitting the consumption and the GDP. Also in entire market I am seeing many brokerage houses coming out with buy report now and no sells and only few holds. Everyone is saying economy is on recovery path, but fundamentals are not supporting. Market is due for correction, only thing timing may be by next week or end of this month. Lets see market is king. Thanks

 

Venkat

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 2.09.09

look at chart.

we have reached very close to supports in rsi(5) and on trendlines. we must bounce from here to maintain upmove.

decisive close below 15200 can give deeper correction.

similar level in nifty comes around 4500.

those who have bought puts can plan to book profits around this support zone. if we brek below trend line then we can buy again.

oil marketing companies like IOC/HPCL AND BPCL has shown very good strength in todays lackluster market.

these 3 cos will get 10% share in OIL INDIA ipo at issue price.

BUY PUTS TO HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIOS

market is sold off heavily today. we r facing very strong resistance near 61.8% zone around 16k and so far we have not been able to cross that barrier. nifty made new high but cld not sustain.on closing decisively below 15200 trendline from march lows will be broken and will indicate end of rally. buy puts and gedge yr portfolio.

************************************************************************************

update at 7.30 p.m.

as shown in chart link we reversed yesterday. today one more effort was done by bulls but not succeded. mkt was weak with more volumes.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq4XR0i-XgThMFK3jzaviC_XFY9ZP6Trl8CnlYAJxyu9e5EkjSWh8KJHfv9VkA9qs26JlAgzvTW8vB6YAmZhNOAk64cDs_usC4t6GBYZtHjwtrrLYUkn7hFhWKoksOR2hB8ZlH8f0L8v4F/s1600-h/SENSEX+AS+ON+28.08.09-794687.PNG

in nifty mkt tested upper boundary shown in this triangle but in sensex it cld not test it.now we have to observe lower trend line giving support.if we break 15200 on closing basis then it will break and we can see deeper correction.otherwise bulls may try again to do one more attempt to take mkt on higher side.

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 28.08.09 AND NIFTY PE CHART

Friends

 

i have attched two charts today.

 

technical observations:

 

we r in uptrend since last 7 dys. monday 8th trading day a fibo no, chances of reversal high

 

rsi(5) is at 77, as per trendline resitance comes at 80

 

rsi (14) at 62, as per trendline resistance comes at 64

 

we are trading at PE of 21+ as per attched chart.historically we have corrected from 22 zone except euphoric years like 1992/2000/2008.time to be cautious and to liquidate holdings in next week.

 

mid and small cap r outperforming since couple of weeks. sensex  has moved in range of 13500 to 15500 apprx for 3 months . in 2007 nov-dec sensex moved like this in range of 18500-20500 for 2 months and gave a break out upto 21200 with help very few stocks and market corrected heavily from there.

 

next week trading range cld be 15200-16200. on break of 15200 we can go for big correction bcz that will violate upmoving trend line running from march lows.chances of market topping out around 16500 are bright. trade accordingly.

 

i may go wrong in my views.

 

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 26.08.09

LOOK AT CHART.

 

STOCKS LOOKING ATTRACTIVE

 

UNITY INFRA,

 

CEMENT STOCKS

 

PART PROFIT BOOKING ADVISABLE AT HIGHER LEVEL IN YESTERDAY'S CALL RIIL

 

AFTER GOOD UPMOVE .

****************************************************************************
intra day update

unity infra has given good upmove in lacklluster market.

look at NIRMA
it is improving with volume and may give good break out!

NHPC ALLOTMENT LINK

CHECK YR NHPC ALLOTMENT ON THIS LINK

http://mis.karvycomputershare.com/ipo/

PERFORMANCE OF MOMENTUM STOCKS FOR TRADING

ON 18/8/2009 I HAD GIVEN A LIST OF MOMENTUM STOCKS FOR TRADING.TILL DATE THEIR PERFORMANCE IS AS GIVEN BELOW.

avaya global 124.5

OPEN 125.55 HIGH 147.6 LOW 125 CLOSE 147.6

tricom 17

OPEN 17.25 HIGH 22.3 LOW 16.55 CLOSE 17.8

onmobile 528

OPEN 526 HIGH 565.8 LOW 515 CLOSE 525

geodesic 123

OPEN 128 HIGH 134 LOW 119.15 CLOSE 123.3

micro tech 137

OPEN 138.45 HIGH 151.5 LOW 126.5 CLOSE 149.45

orchid chem 111.50

OPEN 111.5 HIGH 121.6 LOW 111.5 CLOSE 119.75

WE HAVE GOT OPPORTUNITIES TO BUY AND SELL THESE STOCKS DURING THESE DAYS.

FURTHER UPMOVES R SEEN IN MICRO TECH AND ORCHID

CHEERS !

UPDATES ON 3.09.09

GEODESIC 20% UP

STOCK TO WATCH STERLING BIO CMP 117

STOCK FOR PATINET INVESTERS STERLING BIO CMP 117

STOP LOSS 111

ALERT

HERE U CAN SEE ALERT WHICH WAS SENT IN DEC 2007 BEFORE WE MADE A TOP AT 21206. JUST TRY TO COMPARE CURRENT  SITUATION WITH THAT . NO OF PARAMETERS DICUSSED AT THAT TIME R PRESENT NOW. OF COURSE WE WERE TRADING AT A VERY HIGH PE OF AROUND 28 IN THAT EUPHORIC PERIOD WHICH COMES ONCE IN A VERY LONG TIME FRAME LIKE 8 YRS.WE ARE TRADING AROUND PE OF 21+ AND WE NORMALLY TOP OUT AT PE OF 22.

 

HERE ALSO I WILL LIKE TO SAY THAT THIS IS NOT A SHORTING CALL BUT TO JUST REMIND TO GENEARTE CASH. BUYING CALLS WILL COME FROM ALL DIRECTIONS.

BE CAUTIOUS AND FOLLOW STRICT STOP LOSSES.

*****************************************************************

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: pankaj564

Date: Dec 14 2007, 10:54 pm
Subject: ALERT : MKT MAY TOP OUT IN FEW WEEKS
To: investmentsupergrowth

market has formed last bottom in june 2006 at 8800. we r in 19 th
month from that bottom.february will be 21 st month (fibo no) from
bottom,so monthly trend may become down from there. so i expect
january may see a top.
last time in may 2006 we saw a top at 12671 and in june 2006 bottom of
8800 was sen . good erosion in prices was seen.
at present we can see no of parametrs which can indicate top coming
soon.
* mid cap and small cap out performance
* decrease in large cap turn over and increase in mid/small cap turn
over
* buying circuits in no of small cap stocks
* -ve divergence on charts
* valuations
* up move of laggard sectors
* up move of defensive stocks

so i expect december to end with bullish note with nav lifting moves
and by mid jan new top formation , bearish period may prevail in feb/
mar and april.

buying calls r given but finally net cash generation is must and
disinvestment of medium term investment is must to take advantage of
correction.

members may share their views.this is a probability not a shorting
call.

PankajShah

--

MOMENTUM STOCK : SATYAM CMP 108

BUY SATYAM FOR SHORT TERM TRADING CMP 108,

STOP LOSS 100