Fwd: market status

as per my mails dated 18/7 and 25/7 we are very close to 16k zone, 61.8% retracement level of total fall from 21206 to 7697.

more over as i had discussed in last mail this is a weaker rally like jan2008 top (negative divergence). we are very close to resistance zone in rsi trendline as shown in chart.

more over as per expectation mid caps and small caps are outperforming large caps.

gann turning dates are from 3/08/09 to 7/08/09, observe high and lows during this period for further direction.



as i had compared current moves with jan 2008 top moves, vivek patil has compared similar moves with labelling waves as
a-b-c-d-e-f-g. so according to him we may be very close to end of upmoving "e" and we can see downward " f " to be followed by upward move " g ".so for long positions we have to keep strict stop losses . book profits and generate cash to utilise in correction.

NO BLOG UPDATE TILL 2/8/09

there will not be any update on blog till 2/8/09.

Fwd: MARKET STATUS

in last update on 18/7/09, i had said we are heading towards 16k+. we have moved higher in strong manner so far, crossed 15098 and next hurdle is at last top made at 15600.we are facing resistance at a trend line connecting tops made on 29/06/09, 6/7/09.

 

i was just trying to compare current moves with moves just before jan 2008 top at 21206.we had seen highest rsi level of apprx 85 when we were near 18k in first week of oct 2007. after that we moved sideways in range of apprx 2000 points betn 18500 and 20500 for two months nov and dec 2007.sensex moved higher but with reducing rsi levels.means it was a weaker rally.during that period retail participation increased and distribution was on by smart players.we made top in jan2008 and big correction started......

 

we are moving in range of 13500 and 15500 since last 2 months. we have seen highest rsi lvl of 80 on 19/5/09 in post election result euphoria when sensex was at 14931.yeterday we closed at 15378 but rsi level is 63.

sensex is moving higher but with reducing rsi level, weaker rally again?

if we in the similar situation and if we r going to make an intermediate top we shd see active retail participation, upmoves in mid and small cap stocks. yesterday we have seen rise in volumes of mid and small cap and upmoves.may be in couple of weeks we may see an intermediate top.but we must see more n more volumes in mid and small cap stocks yet and retail participation also.we may face strong resistance when we reach rsi level of apprx 70.till then enjoy rally in mid and small cap stocks.......

 

STOCK TO WATCH RPOWER AND POWER GRID

STOCKS TO WATCH FOR SHORT TERM.

 

POWER GRID CMP 114

 

TARGET 127

 

STOP LOSS 107

 

RELIANCE POWER CMP 169

 

TARGET 181

 

STOP LOSS 161

DR REDDY AT A CRITCAL SUPPORT

COMMENTS ON CHART

stock to watch DR REDDY cmp 791

pharma stocks have started showing strength now.

 

look at DR DReddy for short term trading.

 

cmp 791

 

target 823

 

stop loss 769

 

Fwd: HEADING TO 16K+

yesterday  during market hours i had posted nifty chart.

 

NIFTY AT A CRITICAL LEVEL

 

in nifty we have crossed downward trend line. today i have posted chart for sensex.it has just tested trend line but looking at other indicators markets will cross it soon.so now we will be looking for +ve option as i had discussed ....

MARKET ?

so we might be moving on first sub wave of fifth sub wave .targets for this move can be 16k+

 

 

--
The easiest way to make ourselves healthy is to see that others are healthy, and the easiest way to make ourselves happy is to see that others are happy - Swami Vivekananda

NIFTY AT A CRITICAL LEVEL

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

MARKET ?

as expected we got resisted at neckline of H n S which was around 14450 and today's high was 14493 and we closed at 14250 neacr yesterday's close.

 

in last mail i had said

 

"if we can cross this zone decisively then we will discuss bullish views, till then we r treating this upmove as a pull back. "

 

today in isg forum more details were asked for bullish view and i had replied as given below.pl go thru it it is interesting.

**********************************************************************************************

at present we are correcting after making a top at 15600 and lower top
at 15098 seen on budget day.more over at present we are following H n
S pattern.and today's level for neck line was around 14450 and today
we have seen 14493 and reversed from there. since neckline is inclined
upwards more we pass time neck line levels will go higher.

now i come to bullish option in mind ;

if u recall i had shown a downward channel after we started correcting
from 15098, so a downward resistance line i am following that is
connecting 15600 and 15098. if we cross this trend line that will give
first indication of any bullishness.for today value is just above
14800 and will come down as we pass more time.and more strength can
come to bullish view on croosing 15098 which a last intermediate top
made.

as per wave count to justify this bullish view we have to consider
that all corrections were over at 7697 last yr oct.and assuming that
we are on a fresh bull run from 7697 and we are on first upward wave
having 5 sub waves with following counts.

first upward 7697 to 10945
second downward 10945 to 8047
third upward 8047 to 15600
fourth downward 15600 to 13220
fifth and final upward from 13220 to ....?

i am having this view since no of days but i have not discussed in isg
or at my blog bcz it wld have confused followers.i will update on
further developements. hope this does not confuse any one.
*************************************************************************

we have to watch market for few days. if neck line of H n S is crossed decisively then we will think for bullish option. as discussed above on crossing downward trend line connecting 15600 and 15098 will give us first indication for the same.

 

 

 

 

TIME TO BE CAUTIOUS

we continued with upmove today also with very good broad based participation. we reached to 14300 very close to target of 14400 given yesterday.

i give herewith some levles:-

NECK LINE RESISATNCE AT NECKL INE FOR TOMORROW JUST ABOVE 14400
61.8% RETRACEMENT OF FALL FROM 15098 TO 13220 AT 14381
50 % RETRACEMENT OF FALL FROM 15600 TO 13220 AT 14410
FALLING WEDGE TARGET NEAR 14400 ALREADY GIVEN YESTERDAY.

we have moved up by more than 1000 points in this upmove. it may be advisable to book profits around this zone and watch market from side lines. it is quite possible that we may see consolidation in large cap and can see continuation in mid cap stocks.

if we can cross this zone decisively then we will discuss bullish views, till then we r treating this upmove as a pull back.