SENSEX AS ON 25.06.09

LOOK AT CHART ATTCHED. COMMENTS ON CHART.

stock to watch NIRMA cmp 144

buy NIRMA for short term investment.

cmp 144. stop loss 135.target 155

stock to watch tv18 cmp 132.5

buy tv 18 for short term trading. target 142.

5 DAY CHART

5 DAY CHART ATTACHED . COMMENTS ON CHART.

sensex as on 23.06.09

look at the chart attached . we are at a critical stage for market.

if we r in positive tomorrow we can see an upmove starting

and if we break trendline we can see more correction.

MARKET OPTIONS

today we have broken 14180 and made low of 14016 and bounced from there.

we were observing downward channel in sensex and we broke out yesterday and we went upto 14668 and revrsed from there. actually if we look at nifty chart we have just resisted from downward channel resistance line.

yesterday also we had taken support on 34 dma of nifty.

 

i have tried to make 5 sub waves  of this move from top of 15600.

 

15600-14621= 979

14621-15022= 401

15022-14180= 842

14180-14668= 448

14668-14016= 652

15600 to 14016 is a fall of 1584 points.which is apprx 10% from top.and 21% of rise from 8047 to 15600.

what cld be next direction of market?

 

i have thought two options

 

FIRST OPTION:

if we have completed major correction at 8047 MAJOR A then

8047 to 15600 Ba

15600 to 14016 Bb-a

14016 to ? a lower top then 15600 Bb-b

lower top to downward again as Bb-c

followed by upmove as Bc

 

SECOND : (BULLISH OPTION)

 

if we have completed major correctionat 7697 then sub wave counts of upmove

 

7697-10945

10945-8047

8047-15600

15600-14016

14016-? a new high than 15600

BREAK OUT FROM DOWNWARD CHANNEL IN NIFTY WILL CONFIRM THE VIEW.

comments from Chanish on market

Chanish has shared his expert views on market status in one of the thread on blog.

they r interesting...go thru it.
 

 

quote

 

Thanks for your regular updates, Pankaj.   Here's my first msg on your blog !

 

As far as the market goes, Pankaj, as you know, I have been bearish all this while, so the views I may express herein maybe biased to some extent.   However, the fact is, technically speaking, although the nifty made a new 52-week closing high at 4655+ on June 10, 2009 this was a mere 2 points higher than the earlier 52-week high of 4653+ recorded on June 17, 2008.    Besides the huge double-top which is always a bearish sign, what is also equally significant is the fact that the nifty couldn't even cross its earlier 52-week high level of 4676+ recorded on June 5, 2008.   And from there onwards, we have already seen a correction of almost 10%, with today's closing level of 4235+ not only breaching Thursday's closing of 4251+, but also, more crucially, the historic freeze closing level of 4323+ on May 18, 2009 twice in quick succession.   TAs will argue that the next level to watch out will be 4116+, which if broken decisively, we may head straight downwards to the level of 3671+ very very quickly, and I will concur with their views, as it will then mean that the gaps between 3671 - 4116, which require filling, would have then served the purpose.   In my view, the sooner this gap is filled, the better for the bulls, otherwise the next downard correction, whenever it comes, will be that much more deeper.
 
I have not resorted to any fresh buying, and am more than 65% in cash, which I hope to deploy only at sharp panic declines.   And yes, until we make a new all-time high in excess of 21,226 (sensex), I will maintain, very strongly, that we will always be closer to sub-9K than new highs.

Cheers,
chanish

 

BREAK OUT FROM DOWN WARD CHANNEL

we have come out from downward channel and as mentioned in last mail that confirms that we have completed first leg downward and now we will see pull back in upward direction of fall from 15600 to 14180.retracement lvls r 14634/14890 and15057 , (38.2/50 and 61.8%).

market status

as expected we saw a pull back. low made on friday at 14180 again a low near 14188.
we have not come out of downward channel yet which was shown in 5 daychart.
we have not broken trend line on linear scale yet.
i discussed about resistance at 21day mov avg and suport at 34 day moving avg.
on friday we got suport exactly at 34 day moving avg in nifty at 4206 and bounced sharply.
what next?
zone near 14180/4206 is giving suporrt at present. for further weakness we have to break that zone.on breaking out from downward channel on upside we can assume we have completed first leg of downmove at 14180/4206 and we can see an upmoving second leg. we will observe mkt in coming days for action in either direction.

5 day chart

yesterday i had mentioned abt trend line on log scale chart which was intact since march. today it was broken and as per expectation more deeper correction was seen.i had attched a 5 day chart showing movement. tomorrow we can see a pull back which can face strong resistance at 14526/4365 which were lows before this correction. as per downward channel we can go maxm upto apprx 14630.

i had given vivek patil's views in last mail.he has given 2 options on breaking 14526, both were bearish.
first more bearish : we can correct severly and we can go below 13519 in coming 3 sessions.
second less bearish view : on correcting by more than 1412 points (14931-13519) from 15600 that is 15600-1412=14188 we can correct upto a level higher then 13519.
today we have corrected exactly upto 14188 and closed at 14265.
please keep his views in yr mind.

now my obervations:
we have broken upmoving trend line on log scale today,on linear scale it may get support around 14k tomorrow and very soon it will break in coming days.
we have corrected below 3/5/8/13/21 days moving avgs as per fibo next imp mov avg comes at 34 dma.
so now we can face resistance at 21 dma at 14637 and can get support at 34 dma at 13828 as on today.
i had discussed retracement lvls of fall from 11621-15600 few days back. since we have violated trend line so we shd consider now retracement lvls for full upmove from 8047 to 15600.
first imp support comes at 13817 at 23.6%(if considered from 7697 it comes 13734)
so i feel there are bright chances that we get corrected upto 13800 and we start a strong upmove as a pre budget rally.on break of 13700 this view will get invalidated. we are having rsi lvls around 51 so by the time we correct upto 13800 we can be highly over sold also.
only 5 trading days r left for f n o expiry of june series. that will also oncrease volatality.