top at 15600?

look at chart attched, waves following fibo ratios nicely.

sell off from new high

we have seen today new high near 15600 and sell off is seen. dont take long positions now. it may be a starting of correction.

stocks to watch

castrol above 340 and hind oil explo above 138 may be good technical pick for short term trading,

do not think for investments, go for short term trading only with strict stop losses.

DOW AND SENSEX

DOW AND SENSEX

 

i will like to put 2 charts one is for sensex and other is dow. both are for last 6 months duration.if we observed them, we find that both dow and sensex made bottoms in march first week and started moving up. economical health is reflected in charts. from march bottoms we have nearly doubled from march bottom of 8k and dow has moved from 6.5k to 8.8k only 35% rise.

we moved near 200dma around 11300 ,consolidated for few days and crossed it and we have moved up by apprx 35% from 200ema.and dow is struggling around 200ema since no of days and still it has not been able to cross it decisively.

normally in technical terms 200ema is very good tool to judge whether we r in a long term bullish or bearish state.

so i feel these charts are reflecting that US econmoy is yet in a bad shape in comparision of our econmoy.so for US it may be taking more time to improve health and for our markets we can correct and say we reach near 200dma and start moving up. we r having PE of 20+ so we have run ahead of fundamentals with optimstic sentiment due to favourable political set up.and by the time we correct fundamentals may catch up in coming 2 qtrs.

 

now coming to fibo no at 61.8%, that is not the only reason for concluding to book profits but there r no of other indicators or facts. we have moved by nearly 100% from bottom. we have moved up without any meaningful correction , and more we move up without such correction more we are in danger of bigger correction.-ve divergence is seen in rsi and macd. we r highly over boght in daily and weekly charts.

 

another thing what i feel is that if US markets cross 200ema decisively then FII may change their view towards emerging mkts and they may find value in their mkts in comaprision of emerging mkts and more profit booking can be seen in emerging mkts.

 

in nut shell we are at a very good higher lvls and it is time to genearte maxm cash or to park yr funds in defensive bets or diverting them to gold as a hedge.

STOCK TO WATCH NALCO CMP 345

nalco can be added for short term . cmp 345.
we have tested today last top of 15580 we had seen before going for last painful leg for correction from 15580 to 7697.on crossing it we can see 16k also.
we are in a very serious resistance zone area so keep very very strict stop losses on yr long positions.as i mentioned yesterday watch ril( rpl also). today it has closed up by 2% , if we have to cross 15580 we need ril moving up.

15580 TESTED

we have tested today 15580, a major resistance level from where last leg of correction was started.it is better to be cautious then repent later....
dont miss to book profits.dont be content with notional profits only.
in prev days i had given resistance levels of 14931/15107/15580 and 16000 for this upmove.

STOCK TO WATCH TATA POWER CMP 1140

TATA PWER IS LOOKING GOOD FOR SHORT TERM BUYING. CMP 1140

SENSEX CHART

LOOK AT CHART AND COMMENTS ON IT.
WATCH RELIANCE IND TOMORROW. IT CAN GIVE DIRECTION TO MARKET.

market bounces

after correcting from 15257 made on friday we have gone dn to 14526 in today mrng. looking at retracement lvls,50%/61.8%/78.6% lvls are 14892/14977and 15100. watch this lvls. failure to cross these lvls we can see lower lvls.shorters can keep stop loss of 15100.

as mentioned yesterday IT shares are showing strength today also.

MARKET STATUS

refer link .http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/06/market-status.html
it was posted on 4th june.next day as per expectation we went upto 15257 and started selling off. i had given a comment when we were near 15250 warning that it is becoming dangerous to be on long side.

finally today broad based sell off is seen. in sensex we are at lower lvl of a range which i mentioned on 4/6/09 at 14600. but corresponding lvl in nifty was around 4450 and it is broken decisively. even global markets are also showing heavy profit booking. what next?
on breaking 14600 we are going to see more weakness. it may be prudent now to sell on rises.
refer long term rsi chart posted today.
only IT sectors leaders like infy, wipro, tcs were showing some strength today.