GLOBAL MKTS WILL HELP TO BREAK 14931

LOOK AT CHART
PROFIT BOOKING IS RECOMMENDED ON UPMOVE. TOMORROW WILL BE 55TH DAY FROM RECENT BOTTOM.

WATCH HOTEL STOCKS

watch hotel stocks like ind hotel, hotel leela for short term trading

7 MONTHS COMPLETED,12 WEEKS COMPLETED,UPMOVE IS ON,TIME TO BE CAUTIOUS

we have crossed 61.8% retracement lvl of fall from recent top of 14931 to 13500 and moved ahead and we are closer to recent top.as mentioned in last update now we will be in last part of upmove from 8k.we r in uptrend for 12 weeks ,next week 13th a fibo no.we r in uptrend for 7 months, june will be 8th month since bottom,again a fibo no.

daily rsi near 73.weekly rsi near 74.so we r getting OB. so risk reward ratio not in favour of buying for short - medium term.so better to book profits in all rises in coming days or to trade intraday only so we r not stuck with high priced shares.or move to low beta stocks in fmcg or pharma sectors like colgate,hul,itc,glaxo pharma,cipla.

as mentioned in last mail now 14931/15107/15580/16k. will be very very strong resistances.

CEMENT SECTOR SHOWING STRENGTH

cement sector is showing strength. short term buying can be done.

mkt bounces from support near 13500

market has taken support near low open level of 18/05/09. it was 13479.i had mentioned abt this pattern in mail

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/05/watch-lvls-of-1347913300.html . more over i had posted trendline chart yesterday.there also support was coming around 13500. with help of positive world mkts we have bounced today .we corrected by 1412 points from top of 14931. 50% and 61.8% retracement lvls come at 14225/14392 respectively.today's high was 14123.

 

if we cross14392 also and move ahead then we can assume that this upmove started from 8047 is not completed and we will cross

14931 and we can end 5th and final sub wave of 5th sub wave of move started from 8047 in coming days. we can see strong resistance at 14931/15107/15580 and 16000.

 

if we revrse from any of the retracement lvls mentioned above 14225/14392 then we can see further weakness and correction taking us below 13500 .

LOOK AT TREND LINES

LOOK AT TREND LINES

market status

i will put it in different way. at present over all 3 different scenarios are feasible.

bearish : we are correcting in A-B-C pattern. we have completed major A at 7697, we have completed B at 14931 or we will see little higher top betn 14931 -16k and complete B and we will see major C making new low or double bottom before going for a fresh bull run.

bullish : we have completed total correction in 5 wave pattern and we are in new bull run and we will see levels higher then 21206.

optimum : we are correcting either in A-B-C or A-B-C-D-E pattern. we have completed A, we are on B. Ba upward completed at 14931,we are on Bb downward. on completeing Bb we will go for Bc upward again and that will be a very good time time to book profits and geneartion of cash.bcz we will see C wave dnward after that.

stratejy: today we have seen bearish reversals in no of mid and small cap stocks. no of stocks were up by 5 to 10% up today and have closed dn.more over we have reached very close to 13479 level which was seen as low open level on last monday post election result. today's low is 13511. i have mentioned in detail in prev mail abt supports at 13500-13300 zone and after that 12300.we have to see upward trend line also.so now it will be better to buy in large cap only on reversals in upward direction.

watch pharma stocks

pharma stocks are showing strength. look at them for short term buying.

Spandan waves updates

Dear all,

Updates on 24/05/2009

Last time I gave two different presentations and gave a view that if we cross 12650, we should consider that we are on B wave which retraces entire downmove from 21206 to 7697 by 50%.

The targets were also given as 13070/14600 and 16200 (Approximately)

We have already seen 50% target at 14930 (crossed 14650 but didn't close for 3 days above it)

Currently we are reversing and that could be it's major subwave called "b" wave. (Bb)

It has three waves, a, b and c and we have already seen a part of "a" wave to 13750 or so.

Currently we may be on a small upwave within a downwave. The downwave
may last for 2 to 4 weeks. (Roughly)

We may stop at either

1 12315
2 11500
3 10700

Basically it is an intermediate opportuntiy to BUY.

But beware, the next upmove called B-c may not allow most of us to sell. Sentiments would grip the MIND. Remember my words please.

Alternatively we may go higher right now, re-test 14600 again , go bit further up to 15300/15700 and then after fall to one of these above levels.

Once we complete the downmove, we may not only re-test 14600/14930 but
also march on to see 16200. There is a slim chance to see even close to 18000 (17800/17900 band)as a 76.8% ratio.

If we touch 10700, I strongly believe that one must take opportunity not to build a ST potfolio but also look for an opportunity to build a LT one.

Basically market is still very much a "BUY ON DECLINES".
======================================================

Please understand that all forecasts can go wrong so make take your own decision.

Best wishes,

Spandan Joshi

Fwd: sandip sabharwal : PANIC BUYING

kindly go thru link given below. interesting article.

Blog: sandip sabharwal
Post: PANIC BUYING
Link: http://sandipsabharwal.blogspot.com/2009/05/panic-buying.html