on breaking out from sideways consolidation market was on fire and as expected euphoric moves r seen more in large caps today, to be followed in mid caps.
now we are very close to upper zone of 11600-12500 target given.
what next ;
we have again created a gap today at 11430-11635. we have crossed resistance of 11870, prev weekly top.next higher weekly top comes at 12285 to give resistance.
now today's gap will act as strong support 11430-11635. violation of it will confirm completion of this upmove.
we are very close to a gap unfilled in first week of oct 2008. it was at 12285-12473.
use rallies to generate cash or trade with strict stop losses.
we are having gann turning dates from 4/05/2009 to 7/05/2009.
keep watch on high n lows of this period.
Pankaj Shah
stocks to watch :
tata stl, sail, sesa goa,cesc,tornt power
Monday, May 4, 2009
SPANDAN WAVE COUNTS
Dr Spandan joshi, is a good friend of mine and elliot analyst. he has been updating wave counts sucessfully since we have corrected from 21206. i attach herewith his last updates.i will try my best to update his views regularly.
Dear all,
Fresh Updates and analysis on 29/04/2009 ======================================= I wrote as follows 2 weeks ago on 13th April. =================================================
As I said before we may have seen C5 failure. It looks more likely that it departed at 8047.
Hence we shall be on a larger B wave. We have also discussed that as an "Multi-month up move" almost 3 months ago. We also said that it will even change the sentiments and people may forget the bear run for time being.
Alternative wave count indicates that we could be on C4. (In that case, we are about to tumble heavily from 11640 and around after one moderate dip in between)
Update: We did see a moderate dip from 11375 to 10720 ==========================================================
Contd.
Both C4 and B are up going and hence offer some help.
Targets for C4 can be ========================
10692 11638 12583
We have already seen 10692 and we are approaching 11638. In fact we have seen 11512.
I have not seen sensex going to 50%+ without breaking down for a major correction in between. I expect a same event to happen to sensex any time soon from either 11638 or 11812. This can be a decisive movement.
I.e. Selling is strongly recommended. Even if we go to 12583 which is 61.8% of retracement, one must remain sidelined. Buying can be banned.
I would not like to discuss alternative scenario now as it is not probably relevant to us.
Correction can take us to 9750/9900 or so. We shall discuss strategy when it comes.
Best wishes
Spandan Joshi
Dear all,
Fresh Updates and analysis on 29/04/2009 ======================================= I wrote as follows 2 weeks ago on 13th April. =================================================
As I said before we may have seen C5 failure. It looks more likely that it departed at 8047.
Hence we shall be on a larger B wave. We have also discussed that as an "Multi-month up move" almost 3 months ago. We also said that it will even change the sentiments and people may forget the bear run for time being.
Alternative wave count indicates that we could be on C4. (In that case, we are about to tumble heavily from 11640 and around after one moderate dip in between)
Update: We did see a moderate dip from 11375 to 10720 ==========================================================
Contd.
Both C4 and B are up going and hence offer some help.
Targets for C4 can be ========================
10692 11638 12583
We have already seen 10692 and we are approaching 11638. In fact we have seen 11512.
I have not seen sensex going to 50%+ without breaking down for a major correction in between. I expect a same event to happen to sensex any time soon from either 11638 or 11812. This can be a decisive movement.
I.e. Selling is strongly recommended. Even if we go to 12583 which is 61.8% of retracement, one must remain sidelined. Buying can be banned.
I would not like to discuss alternative scenario now as it is not probably relevant to us.
Correction can take us to 9750/9900 or so. We shall discuss strategy when it comes.
Best wishes
Spandan Joshi
GANN TURNING DAYS
4/5/09 to 7/05/09 are gann turning days. watch high and lows for these days.
stocks to watch today
L n T
Fintech
Pankaj Shah
stocks to watch today
L n T
Fintech
Pankaj Shah
Saturday, May 2, 2009
look at chart attched.10700 zone has given good support so far.it seems we have completed small correction as 4th wave which was apprx 25% of last upwave from 8867 to 11367.keep strict stop loss for this view at 10716.on crossing 11367 we will be heading towards 11600-12500 area. today we have seen good recovery in metal stocks. buy sail in dips, cmp 115, target 132, stop loss 105.
Pankaj Shah
views given on 25/04/09
we have taken good support in 10700/3300 zone and started moving up.we have reached very close to recent top of 11367 at 11363. closing is higher then that day.
supports: 10700/3300 and second zone is 10200/3150.
since we have crossed 10945 in last upmove now we will consider retrcements from top made before that, 15580 and low was 7697. retrcement lvls of 50%/61.8% comes at 11638 and 12568.if we consider on closing basis they come 11807 and 12679200 week mov avg is around 12700.
last time we cld not close above 200 dma , now we have closed above 200dma/ema. it has to sustain above that for few days.
before top of 10945 previous weekly tops were 11870 and 12285 which may work as resistance in coming days.
election will be over on 13/5 and results will be out on 16/5. so our stretegy shd be to generate cash gradually in this upmove bcz we have moved from 8047 and till date no major correction has come,mkt may cool off post results and correction can be deeper.coming 2 weeks may be volatile and euphoric also bcz of rise in retail participation with left out feeling and switching over from bearish to bullish mindset.we see excess moves in both directions and mkts get strecthed from fair valuations.
Pankaj Shah
finally we have crossed 10470 also today which level was observed since long for confirmation.now it seems on crossing next barrier at 10945 we are heading towards area of 11200-11400.on log chart downward sloping trendline will give resistance in area near 11200-11400.200days ema is around 11215 and 200 days sma for sensex at 11384 .
Pankaj Shah
मित्रो हमने निचे आती हुई ट्रेंड लाइन को क्रॉस कर लिया है.इसके साथ तीन चार्ट भेजे है.आगेकी चाल कैसी हो सकती है.bow tie diametric को विवेक पाटिल जी काफी समयसे दिखा रहें है.मैंने उसमे उल्टा head and shoulder पैटर्न बनाया है .हम उसकी नेक्क लाइन पर है.इसके हिसाबसे आनेवाले दिनोमे हम थोडा correction देख सकते है जिसमे हम खरीदी कर सकते है.मेरे प्रिय मित्र स्पंदन ने अपनी प्रतिक्रिया भेजी है वोह चार्ट भी सामिल है
पंकज शाह
FRIENDS after a very very long time we saw a huge rally surprising mkt players whose mind set was expecting bearishness (incl me).lvl of 6500 is being discussed by all tom harry and dick.seems shorters are trapped today and short covering wth losses must be there.
first positives: today we have crossed 100dma and closed above it. so far after correcting from 21206 all the times we have reached around 100 dma we have corrected by 25-30 percent from there.let us c this time what happens. will we sustain above 100 dma?
today first time trend line connecting 7697 and 8631 which was giving strong resisatnce so far is crossed over and we have clsoed baove that t- line.
will we sustain above that t line? look at attached chart. today we have tested a line in rsi. that line has given strong resistance since top of 21206. yesterday i had mentioned abt it indicating that since it was not tested some bullishness is left out.let us c this time. will we sustain at this lvls. i had mentioned abt macd also still it is not crossed.
we have crossed downward channel after a long time and we have moved up by more than 80% of fall from 9725 to 8047, so we have think in different manner. now we shd look at retracement lvls of fall from 10470 to 8047. so far we have retraced by 58% of fall very close to 61.8% lvl at 9544.let us c.we will see abt waves after we complete this move.
we have filled gap at 9213-9279 which was unfilled since long.
what next?
for intra day charts we have to look at trend line connecting 10945 and 10470 will give resisatnce around 9700. and on closing basis chart we shd look at rectangle chart i had sent earlier.lvl wise technically any close above 10470 will reverse the trend from bearish to bullish.
i had mentioned abt gann turning day. today was gann turning day.last it was on 9/02/09 and 10/02/09.we saw intermediate high of 9725 in those days. normally these days levels work for apprx 40 dys.today's low of 9040 shd observed for any weakness or bearishness.any gap opening will invite correction bcz so far we had seen 3 gap openings so next gap opening on higher side will be inviting good correction.
so better to be on sideline for few days and let market decide where it wants to move.fight of bulls n bears will be at peak in coming 2/3 days since F n O expiry is on thursday.
Pankaj Shah
sensex resembelence
i have sent mail to my clients on 20/4/2009. i put it on my blog today.20/04/2009
Friends, as expected we have reached and got strong resistance in zone 11200-11400 and had seen some correction as mentioned.more over one gap was unfilled at 11257/11410 , that also gave resistance alongwith 200dma and sloping downward trend line. now since we have violated 10945 which gave support on friday so next support comes at 10470 prev top as well support on upward trend line seen so far.on violation of 10470 we can go near very strong support area near 10127.we have left big unfilled gap at 9921-10107 also.50% of rise from 8867-11367 comes at 10117. our stretegy shd be to buy when we see reversal from supports.buying shd be stock specific looking at reversal in individual scrips. i have attched two charts which is showing very good resemblence in moves when we made bottom at 2594 in 2001 and current bottom made at 8047. if we follow the same path we can move towards 12500 after some correction in coming days.more over values of sensex in 2000-2001 are resembeling with current values of nifty. Pankaj Shah
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