MARKET

STOP LOSS LEVELS

SHORT TERM 18118/5431

MEDIUM TERM 17395/5210

LONG TERM  15960/4796

SO FAR WE ARE OBSERVING HIGHER LOWS AND HIGHER HIGHS.BE CAUTIOUS IN LONG POSITIONS.

ON WEAKNESS IN EURO US DOLLAR INDEX IS SHOWING STRNGTH AFTER TESTING APPRX 80  ZONE.DAILY CHARTS ARE 

SHOWING +VE DIVERGENCE AND PRICE IS ALSO SHOWING +VE ACTION. STRENGTH IN US DOLLAR INDEX MAY BRING 

WEAKNESS IN EQUITY MARKETS.

views of Shrikant Chouhan, Technical analyst

The week past and expected

The market is under compression mode as the market is failing to trade above 5450/5470 levels even though the world

markets are doing well. As per daily chart the market is diverging negatively which is an indication of pause of the current

trend or likely shift in coming few days. Even if we look at the daily trend of the market then one can clearly notice that

it is under rising wedge formation that suggests us phase of distribution. Currently it has final support at 5350/17840 but

it seems difficult to break in the near term.

As per our past experience and findings it seems that it will spend time between 5350 and 5520 (maximum on the higher

side) and dismissal of the range will trigger "massive break out or break down on either side. We feel that the market will

break the lower band but while looking at world markets and status of the domestic currency it may even break upward

range. On the dismissal of the lower range we may expect minimum 5200/17370 lower side.

Sector specific: Banks, IT, Auto and Consumer durables may do well however, buying is advisable only at major supports

or on declines. Reality and Cement stocks one can trade on recoveries from lower levels and not on dips. Capital goods,

Infra, Pharmaceuticals and Metal stocks may find resistance at higher levels as profit taking will minimize the upside for

the same. Even midcap and small cap stocks may come under pressure of profit taking as the current move seems to be

over extended; be cautious or choose while investing at current and at higher levels.

Nifty Strategy: For the day, selling is advisable below 5430 with a tight stop loss above 5460 and for the target 5380 and

5365. In the second half, if the market sustains above 5460 then buying is advisable with a stop loss below 5430 for the

target 5490 and 5520.

updates from VIVEK PATIL

9/08/10

updates from vivek patil.

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Even if we do see further rallies, the question right now is whether the same would keep facing profit-booking, even if they do hit higher

levels. Previous two new highs of Jul'10 did get sold into, firstly at 18167, and then at 18238. In fact, the bigger picture since last Oct

shows all news highs of this rally attracted selling, each time Sensex shaving off 2100 to 2400 points.

Structurally, the "i" leg appears to be developing as a Contracting Triangle. The "c" leg was 61.8% of "a", and "d" was 61.8% of

"b", forming into contraction. The "e" leg will achieve 61.8% ratio to "c" leg at about 17325.

Though not resisted at 80% retracement level, topping formations can even show Double Tops or measured higher highs.

Topping action usually turns out to be a tricky affair, and the same will be expected as long as the Sensex keeps its head

below the maximum potential of 18357.

That potential was also explained as the upper end of the year-long channel shown on the Daily chart.

To keep any bullish option open for the next week, Sensex should not only move above last week's high of 18295, but

also above 18357 level.

 

SBI LOOKING WEAK

LOOK AT CHART .

TIME TO SHORT SBI SHARES. ONE CAN BUY PUTS ALSO TO SHORT .

*************************************************************************************

IF WE TRY TO WORK OUT UPMOVE FROM 894 TO 2663 IN 5 SUB WAVES

* 894 TO 1935

* 1935 TO 1512

* 1512 TO 2500

* 2500 TO 1863

* 1863 TO 2663

MARKET

have a look at chart from blog of ilangoji.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRdcG40-Ox3rUXI6NQnhlZglZPvXFh7cc1Pyw2GdQa4FWPZzbYsO-jAQsLNmUBoXe7uMQaqPfa6qWVzs-WhdIf0p6MYb8_kAAyvmhTOhL1DsLTQMqV7y78pLDM0doqJ4bYfYEKcFhYr38/s1600/0.PNG

ALTERNATIVE WAVE COUNTS BY ILANGOJI

HAVE A LOOK AT 2 ALTERNATIVES BY ILANGOJI

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz9hkHBf1jAerXSW1sI878Geh5AvxeUdAw0NrluHwKZD_FzsHNQPRwD5aygNivyBZFRenJf3PTqYmyTzdxp-_lsn4cZL73ZW_H6vpw4ZL7yCLDlKNq7qR1cBvuII4idwwgLxlAwZin3Os/s1600/0.0.PNG

 

Fwd: BUY NTPC ABOVE 203

BUY NTPC ABOVE 203.

STOP LOSS BELOW 196 ON CLOSING BASIS.
************************************************

update as on 19.7.10

ntpc 204

HAVE WE TOPPED AT 18167 OR WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO TOP ?

WE ARE MOVING IN A SIDEWAYS CHANNEL SINCE TOP MADE AROUND 17500 LAST YEAR.LOWS ARE NEAR 15000/15500 

AND HIGHS ARE IN 18000/18167(top so far) RANGE.

GLOBAL MARKETS ARE IN RELATIVELY BAD SHAPE. WE MAY FOLLOW THEM.RESULT SEASON IS GOING TO BE OVER 

SOON.WE MIGHT HAVE TOPPED AT 18167 OR WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO IT.ONLY A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE THIS 

CHANNEL   CAN BRING BULLISH OPTIONS TECHNICALLY.

BREAK OUT OR BREAK DOWN FROM THIS CHANNEL MAY BRING TARGETS OF 23K OR 13K IN PLAY IN COMING 

QUARTERS.

I MAY GO TOTALLY WRONG IN MY VIEW ALSO.DO YOUR OWN STUDIES.

VIEWS ARE WELCOME.

PANKAJ SHAH

19.7.2010

US DOLLAR INDEX

LOOK AT CHART OF US DOLLAR INDEX ATTACHED HEREWITH.ITS MOVEMENT MAY GUIDE 

US FOR FURTHER MOVES IN EQUITY MARKET.BELOW 83.3LEVEL NEXT SUPPORT ZONE IS 

BETN 80 AND 82 ZONE . 200 DMA IS NEAR 82 AND 200EMA IS SHOWN IN CHART.NORMALLY 

WEAKNESS IN US DOLLAR INDEX HAD HELPED FOR UP MOVES IN EQUITY MARKETS AND 

GOLD.

***********************************************************************************************************

Sunil Doshi said...

Please explain US-Dollar Index in Detail

July 16, 2010 11:51 AM 

us dollar index is explained very well in following link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

normally its movement is inverse to equity market movements.i had given observations in past in this link.

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-dollar-index-as-on-922010.html

MARKET

look at sensex daily and weekly charts attached.

us dollar index has tested 200 ema zone at 82. it is over sold in short term and we may see a bounce from here in us dollar index .still we are correcting in a downward parellel channel.break out from channel on higher side will be harmful for equity markets.further weakness in us dollar index will benefit equity markets.

attached chart is old chart.

sensex has made higher top at 18167 (prev top at 18048).weekly candle stic is inverted hammer.break of 17855 low of current week may bring further weakness.break of 17400 on closing basis will confirm end of upmove started from 15960.on daily chart support is at 17800.50 day ema is also around 17400.

power sector has not performed yet.

in US market all 3 indices has closed below 200 ema.

--
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