look at the chart attached . we are at a critical stage for market.
if we r in positive tomorrow we can see an upmove starting
and if we break trendline we can see more correction.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
MARKET OPTIONS
today we have broken 14180 and made low of 14016 and bounced from there.
we were observing downward channel in sensex and we broke out yesterday and we went upto 14668 and revrsed from there. actually if we look at nifty chart we have just resisted from downward channel resistance line.
yesterday also we had taken support on 34 dma of nifty.
i have tried to make 5 sub waves of this move from top of 15600.
15600-14621= 979
14621-15022= 401
15022-14180= 842
14180-14668= 448
14668-14016= 652
15600 to 14016 is a fall of 1584 points.which is apprx 10% from top.and 21% of rise from 8047 to 15600.
what cld be next direction of market?
i have thought two options
FIRST OPTION:
if we have completed major correction at 8047 MAJOR A then
8047 to 15600 Ba
15600 to 14016 Bb-a
14016 to ? a lower top then 15600 Bb-b
lower top to downward again as Bb-c
followed by upmove as Bc
SECOND : (BULLISH OPTION)
if we have completed major correctionat 7697 then sub wave counts of upmove
7697-10945
10945-8047
8047-15600
15600-14016
14016-? a new high than 15600
BREAK OUT FROM DOWNWARD CHANNEL IN NIFTY WILL CONFIRM THE VIEW.
Monday, June 22, 2009
comments from Chanish on market
Chanish has shared his expert views on market status in one of the thread on blog.
they r interesting...go thru it.
quote
Thanks for your regular updates, Pankaj. Here's my first msg on your blog !
As far as the market goes, Pankaj, as you know, I have been bearish all this while, so the views I may express herein maybe biased to some extent. However, the fact is, technically speaking, although the nifty made a new 52-week closing high at 4655+ on June 10, 2009 this was a mere 2 points higher than the earlier 52-week high of 4653+ recorded on June 17, 2008. Besides the huge double-top which is always a bearish sign, what is also equally significant is the fact that the nifty couldn't even cross its earlier 52-week high level of 4676+ recorded on June 5, 2008. And from there onwards, we have already seen a correction of almost 10%, with today's closing level of 4235+ not only breaching Thursday's closing of 4251+, but also, more crucially, the historic freeze closing level of 4323+ on May 18, 2009 twice in quick succession. TAs will argue that the next level to watch out will be 4116+, which if broken decisively, we may head straight downwards to the level of 3671+ very very quickly, and I will concur with their views, as it will then mean that the gaps between 3671 - 4116, which require filling, would have then served the purpose. In my view, the sooner this gap is filled, the better for the bulls, otherwise the next downard correction, whenever it comes, will be that much more deeper.
I have not resorted to any fresh buying, and am more than 65% in cash, which I hope to deploy only at sharp panic declines. And yes, until we make a new all-time high in excess of 21,226 (sensex), I will maintain, very strongly, that we will always be closer to sub-9K than new highs.
I have not resorted to any fresh buying, and am more than 65% in cash, which I hope to deploy only at sharp panic declines. And yes, until we make a new all-time high in excess of 21,226 (sensex), I will maintain, very strongly, that we will always be closer to sub-9K than new highs.
Cheers,
chanish
chanish
BREAK OUT FROM DOWN WARD CHANNEL
we have come out from downward channel and as mentioned in last mail that confirms that we have completed first leg downward and now we will see pull back in upward direction of fall from 15600 to 14180.retracement lvls r 14634/14890 and15057 , (38.2/50 and 61.8%).
market status
as expected we saw a pull back. low made on friday at 14180 again a low near 14188.
we have not come out of downward channel yet which was shown in 5 daychart.
we have not broken trend line on linear scale yet.
i discussed about resistance at 21day mov avg and suport at 34 day moving avg.
on friday we got suport exactly at 34 day moving avg in nifty at 4206 and bounced sharply.
what next?
zone near 14180/4206 is giving suporrt at present. for further weakness we have to break that zone.on breaking out from downward channel on upside we can assume we have completed first leg of downmove at 14180/4206 and we can see an upmoving second leg. we will observe mkt in coming days for action in either direction.
we have not come out of downward channel yet which was shown in 5 daychart.
we have not broken trend line on linear scale yet.
i discussed about resistance at 21day mov avg and suport at 34 day moving avg.
on friday we got suport exactly at 34 day moving avg in nifty at 4206 and bounced sharply.
what next?
zone near 14180/4206 is giving suporrt at present. for further weakness we have to break that zone.on breaking out from downward channel on upside we can assume we have completed first leg of downmove at 14180/4206 and we can see an upmoving second leg. we will observe mkt in coming days for action in either direction.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
5 day chart
i had given vivek patil's views in last mail.he has given 2 options on breaking 14526, both were bearish.
first more bearish : we can correct severly and we can go below 13519 in coming 3 sessions.
second less bearish view : on correcting by more than 1412 points (14931-13519) from 15600 that is 15600-1412=14188 we can correct upto a level higher then 13519.
today we have corrected exactly upto 14188 and closed at 14265.
please keep his views in yr mind.
now my obervations:
we have broken upmoving trend line on log scale today,on linear scale it may get support around 14k tomorrow and very soon it will break in coming days.
we have corrected below 3/5/8/13/21 days moving avgs as per fibo next imp mov avg comes at 34 dma.
so now we can face resistance at 21 dma at 14637 and can get support at 34 dma at 13828 as on today.
i had discussed retracement lvls of fall from 11621-15600 few days back. since we have violated trend line so we shd consider now retracement lvls for full upmove from 8047 to 15600.
first imp support comes at 13817 at 23.6%(if considered from 7697 it comes 13734)
so i feel there are bright chances that we get corrected upto 13800 and we start a strong upmove as a pre budget rally.on break of 13700 this view will get invalidated. we are having rsi lvls around 51 so by the time we correct upto 13800 we can be highly over sold also.
only 5 trading days r left for f n o expiry of june series. that will also oncrease volatality.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
BSE SENSEX - Trendline still not broken on daily log chart
market has corrected as per expectation.today we have broken 14526 on intraday basis and we have closed at 14523, very close to it.today's low was 14447 well below 14526. technically trend is reversed bcz we have seen lower bottom than 14526 which can take us for bigger correction ranging from 13700 to 12500 zone.
as per vivek patil's last weekly analysis there is a chance of very fast correction. irepduce from his report.:
The assumed wave-structure for the rally (i.e. inside "B" leg),
has been shown on the Daily as well as 30-minute charts. The structure
post election-results shows a bearish Diagonal Triangle (also called a
Terminal) shape so far. Daily chart shows a bigger one, while 30-
minute chart shows it for the "c" leg only.
has been shown on the Daily as well as 30-minute charts. The structure
post election-results shows a bearish Diagonal Triangle (also called a
Terminal) shape so far. Daily chart shows a bigger one, while 30-
minute chart shows it for the "c" leg only.
That shape is created due to reducing magnitude and slow speed
of subsequent rallies. Indeed, the "c" leg has taken 161.8% time
compared to the time taken by "a" and "b" put together. (13 days
against 3+5=8, all of them being Fibonacci numbers). Price-wise, "c"
has so far achieved only 61.8% of "a".
of subsequent rallies. Indeed, the "c" leg has taken 161.8% time
compared to the time taken by "a" and "b" put together. (13 days
against 3+5=8, all of them being Fibonacci numbers). Price-wise, "c"
has so far achieved only 61.8% of "a".
Within the "c" leg, one can see a probable 1st Extension
Terminal as marked on the 30-minute chart. Inside this, 3rd was
exactly 61.8% of 1st. The Sensex may have completed 4th and 5th of the
Terminal already at last Friday's high near our target level of 15580,
OR is completing its 4th, as marked.
Terminal as marked on the 30-minute chart. Inside this, 3rd was
exactly 61.8% of 1st. The Sensex may have completed 4th and 5th of the
Terminal already at last Friday's high near our target level of 15580,
OR is completing its 4th, as marked.
Confirmation would require a drop below last week's low of 14526
in faster time.
in faster time.
While we watch for completion of Terminal and its confirmation,
the implication of this pattern could be a fall below 13519 within 50%
time consumed by "c" (50% of 13 = 7).
the implication of this pattern could be a fall below 13519 within 50%
time consumed by "c" (50% of 13 = 7).
Remember, this bearish possibility is only a suspicion at this
juncture.
juncture.
My current assumption of Extracting Triangle would be bearish,
but avoid fall below 13519 in 50% time. "d" of Extracting is usually a
slower and complex affair though it should become bigger than 1412
points (magnitude of "b") to confirm the extraction.
but avoid fall below 13519 in 50% time. "d" of Extracting is usually a
slower and complex affair though it should become bigger than 1412
points (magnitude of "b") to confirm the extraction.
Bullish options can remain open only if the Sensex avoids
closing below 14526. That could convert the current configuration into
another Diametric as marked on the Daily Chart above.
closing below 14526. That could convert the current configuration into
another Diametric as marked on the Daily Chart above.
While the market is deciding its next move at this crucial
juncture near 15580, based on the probabilities discussed, Investors
need to take a call not forgetting these bearish options discussed.
The only positive hope would be provided by a sustainable move above
15580.
juncture near 15580, based on the probabilities discussed, Investors
need to take a call not forgetting these bearish options discussed.
The only positive hope would be provided by a sustainable move above
15580.
******************************************************************************************
i have attached two charts on log scale for total uptrend from march onwards.i tried on yahoo charts and put chart for same but it is not updated for today's move. attached another chart sent by Vipul Shah which is updated with today's movement. as per that chart we are just at a trend line support which is intact from march so that is the last hope for bulls for any upmove and break of it will invite further deeper correction.
Ministry proposes lock-in for FIIs
SOURCE : ndtv profit
http://profit.ndtv.com/2009/06/15233146/Ministry-proposes-lockin-for.html
In a move that could make foreign institutional investors (FIIs) rethink their investing plans in India, the finance ministry has suggested a lock-in for such investments.
The Ministry babus may be biting more than they can chew in their effort to keep a clear-cut distinction between foreign direct investments from institutional money through FIIs. It now wants a minimum lock-in for such money flow.The letter written to the committee of secretaries headed by the cabinet secretary says, “Keeping in view the volatility of capital flows associated with large withdrawals by FIIs, a minimum lock-in period for FIIs could be prescribed."
While one extreme view may support a lock-in, this could definitely end up being a huge sentiment dampener.In 2008 FIIs pulled out $13 billion, taking the stock market down by half. Even as that can be blamed on global conditions, market players say that any form of a lock-in for stock market investments is impracticalAbhay Aima, an investment analyst
said, “This is a part of the ongoing discussion on guidelines for treatment of foreign investment on the same matter.”
The commerce ministry has recommended uniform investment conditions for both FII and FDI in sectors that have FDI caps and other entry route restrictions.The finance ministry has opposed this move saying that FII investments should be treated differently and shouldn't be subjected to same norms as FDI. It has even opposed need for FIPB approval for FII investments.But strangely enough, while it supports the cause of FIIs vehemently, it has also countered its entire stand by proposing a lock-in clause for FII investments.
The proposal to lock-in FII investments will now be taken up by the committee of secretaries, which will chart out the final path for a decison on this, but if the government decides to bring in a lock-in clause it may impact FII investments severely
http://profit.ndtv.com/2009/06/15233146/Ministry-proposes-lockin-for.html
In a move that could make foreign institutional investors (FIIs) rethink their investing plans in India, the finance ministry has suggested a lock-in for such investments.
The Ministry babus may be biting more than they can chew in their effort to keep a clear-cut distinction between foreign direct investments from institutional money through FIIs. It now wants a minimum lock-in for such money flow.The letter written to the committee of secretaries headed by the cabinet secretary says, “Keeping in view the volatility of capital flows associated with large withdrawals by FIIs, a minimum lock-in period for FIIs could be prescribed."
While one extreme view may support a lock-in, this could definitely end up being a huge sentiment dampener.In 2008 FIIs pulled out $13 billion, taking the stock market down by half. Even as that can be blamed on global conditions, market players say that any form of a lock-in for stock market investments is impracticalAbhay Aima, an investment analyst
said, “This is a part of the ongoing discussion on guidelines for treatment of foreign investment on the same matter.”
The commerce ministry has recommended uniform investment conditions for both FII and FDI in sectors that have FDI caps and other entry route restrictions.The finance ministry has opposed this move saying that FII investments should be treated differently and shouldn't be subjected to same norms as FDI. It has even opposed need for FIPB approval for FII investments.But strangely enough, while it supports the cause of FIIs vehemently, it has also countered its entire stand by proposing a lock-in clause for FII investments.
The proposal to lock-in FII investments will now be taken up by the committee of secretaries, which will chart out the final path for a decison on this, but if the government decides to bring in a lock-in clause it may impact FII investments severely
NICE - How 1+1+1=4??? An Interesting story to learn a lesson..
FORWARDING A NICE MAIL :
How 1+1+1=4??? An Interesting story to learn a lesson..
A teacher teaching Maths to seven-year-old Arnav asked him, "If I give
you one apple and one apple and one apple, how many apples will you
have?" Within a few seconds Arnav replied confidently, "Four!"
The dismayed teacher was expecting an effortless correct answer
(three). She was disappointed. "Maybe the child did not listen
properly," she thought. She repeated, "Arnav, listen carefully. If I
give you one apple and one apple and one apple, how many apples will
you have?"
Arnav had seen the disappointment on his teacher's face. He calculated
again on his fingers. But within him he was also searching for the
answer that will make the teacher happy. His search for the answer was
not for the correct one, but the one that will make his teacher happy.
This time hesitatingly he replied, "Four..."
The disappointment stayed on the teacher's face. She remembered that
Arnav liked strawberries. She thought maybe he doesn't like apples and
that is making him loose focus. This time with an exaggerated
excitement and twinkling in her eyes she asked, "If I give you one
strawberry and one strawberry and one strawberry, then how many you
will have?"
Seeing the teacher happy, young Arnav calculated on his fingers again.
There was no pressure on him, but a little on the teacher. She wanted
her new approach to succeed. With a hesitating smile young Arnav
enquired, "Three?"
The teacher now had a victorious smile. Her approach had succeeded.
She wanted to congratulate herself. But one last thing remained. Once
again she asked him, "Now if I give you one apple and one apple and
one more apple how many will you have?"
Promptly Arnav answered, "Four!"
The teacher was aghast. "How Arnav, how?" she demanded in a little
stern and irritated voice.
In a voice that was low and hesitating young Arnav replied, "Because I
already have one apple in my bag."
Moral :
"When someone gives you an answer that is different from what you
expected, don't think they are wrong. There may be an angle that you
have not understood at all. You will have to listen and understand,
but never listen with a predetermined notion."
A teacher teaching Maths to seven-year-old Arnav asked him, "If I give
you one apple and one apple and one apple, how many apples will you
have?" Within a few seconds Arnav replied confidently, "Four!"
The dismayed teacher was expecting an effortless correct answer
(three). She was disappointed. "Maybe the child did not listen
properly," she thought. She repeated, "Arnav, listen carefully. If I
give you one apple and one apple and one apple, how many apples will
you have?"
Arnav had seen the disappointment on his teacher's face. He calculated
again on his fingers. But within him he was also searching for the
answer that will make the teacher happy. His search for the answer was
not for the correct one, but the one that will make his teacher happy.
This time hesitatingly he replied, "Four..."
The disappointment stayed on the teacher's face. She remembered that
Arnav liked strawberries. She thought maybe he doesn't like apples and
that is making him loose focus. This time with an exaggerated
excitement and twinkling in her eyes she asked, "If I give you one
strawberry and one strawberry and one strawberry, then how many you
will have?"
Seeing the teacher happy, young Arnav calculated on his fingers again.
There was no pressure on him, but a little on the teacher. She wanted
her new approach to succeed. With a hesitating smile young Arnav
enquired, "Three?"
The teacher now had a victorious smile. Her approach had succeeded.
She wanted to congratulate herself. But one last thing remained. Once
again she asked him, "Now if I give you one apple and one apple and
one more apple how many will you have?"
Promptly Arnav answered, "Four!"
The teacher was aghast. "How Arnav, how?" she demanded in a little
stern and irritated voice.
In a voice that was low and hesitating young Arnav replied, "Because I
already have one apple in my bag."
Moral :
"When someone gives you an answer that is different from what you
expected, don't think they are wrong. There may be an angle that you
have not understood at all. You will have to listen and understand,
but never listen with a predetermined notion."
14526 BROKEN
14526 is finally broken today,our anticipation is true and trend reversal is confirmed.
lower bottom is formed.now we are confirmed on correction. first target zone will be around 13500-13700 as mentioned in prev mails.we will watch there upmoving trendline which is intact since march.
lower bottom is formed.now we are confirmed on correction. first target zone will be around 13500-13700 as mentioned in prev mails.we will watch there upmoving trendline which is intact since march.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)