NICE - How 1+1+1=4??? An Interesting story to learn a lesson..

FORWARDING A NICE MAIL :

 

How 1+1+1=4??? An Interesting story to learn a lesson..

A teacher teaching Maths to seven-year-old Arnav asked him, "If I give
you one apple and one apple and one apple, how many apples will you
have?" Within a few seconds Arnav replied confidently, "Four!"

The dismayed teacher was expecting an effortless correct answer
(three). She was disappointed. "Maybe the child did not listen
properly," she thought. She repeated, "Arnav, listen carefully. If I
give you one apple and one apple and one apple, how many apples will
you have?"

Arnav had seen the disappointment on his teacher's face. He calculated
again on his fingers. But within him he was also searching for the
answer that will make the teacher happy. His search for the answer was
not for the correct one, but the one that will make his teacher happy.
This time hesitatingly he replied, "Four..."

The disappointment stayed on the teacher's face. She remembered that
Arnav liked strawberries. She thought maybe he doesn't like apples and
that is making him loose focus. This time with an exaggerated
excitement and twinkling in her eyes she asked, "If I give you one
strawberry and one strawberry and one strawberry, then how many you
will have?"

Seeing the teacher happy, young Arnav calculated on his fingers again.
There was no pressure on him, but a little on the teacher. She wanted
her new approach to succeed. With a hesitating smile young Arnav
enquired, "Three?"

The teacher now had a victorious smile. Her approach had succeeded.
She wanted to congratulate herself. But one last thing remained. Once
again she asked him, "Now if I give you one apple and one apple and
one more apple how many will you have?"

Promptly Arnav answered, "Four!"

The teacher was aghast. "How Arnav, how?" she demanded in a little
stern and irritated voice.

In a voice that was low and hesitating young Arnav replied, "Because I
already have one apple in my bag."

Moral :

"When someone gives you an answer that is different from what you
expected, don't think they are wrong. There may be an angle that you
have not understood at all. You will have to listen and understand,
but never listen with a predetermined notion."

14526 BROKEN

14526 is finally broken today,our anticipation is true and trend reversal is confirmed.
lower bottom is formed.now we are confirmed on correction. first target zone will be around 13500-13700 as mentioned in prev mails.we will watch there upmoving trendline which is intact since march.

MARKET STATUS

market opened weak alongwith weak global markets . it bounced from first retracement support area of 14622.
yet we have not broken critical lvl of 14526 to confirm trend reversal technically to form lower bottom.

assuming that we are correcting and considering we are on pull back we can go upto retracement lvls in upward directions at 15111/15226 50and 61.8% of fall from 15600 to 14622. corresponding lvls in nifty are 4549/4583.after moving upto any of thses lvls if we come down our bearish view cld be valid.cross over of 15261 (high of monday) can be first indication of invalidation of bearish view.

guj alkalies and hind oil explo has shown good strength today.bank stocks have also shown good strength today.

sensex as on 15.06.09

as per our anticipation we have corrected today. we have broken support line in a rising wedge, which is a bearish signal. we have broken rsi support line shown in chart.i have given retracement lvls on chart where we can get support and bounce.

our strategy shd be to sell on rise.we have already lost 800 points apprx from top so we may get bounces in betn from support lvls.

RIL BREAKS UPMOVING TREND LINE

today reliance ind has broken upmoving trend line decisively which was intact since first week of march.being a heavy weight on indices weakness is being reflected in market.

 

sandip sabharwal's highly bullish view

i had posted Sandip Sabharwal's mail on 23/05/09 with title of panic buying.

on his blog testerday he has posted a highly bullish view for coming few years.

i am giving herewith link for same.go thru it. it is interesting.

 

http://sandipsabharwal.blogspot.com/2009/06/wave-3.html

top at 15600?

look at chart attched, waves following fibo ratios nicely.

sell off from new high

we have seen today new high near 15600 and sell off is seen. dont take long positions now. it may be a starting of correction.

stocks to watch

castrol above 340 and hind oil explo above 138 may be good technical pick for short term trading,

do not think for investments, go for short term trading only with strict stop losses.

DOW AND SENSEX

DOW AND SENSEX

 

i will like to put 2 charts one is for sensex and other is dow. both are for last 6 months duration.if we observed them, we find that both dow and sensex made bottoms in march first week and started moving up. economical health is reflected in charts. from march bottoms we have nearly doubled from march bottom of 8k and dow has moved from 6.5k to 8.8k only 35% rise.

we moved near 200dma around 11300 ,consolidated for few days and crossed it and we have moved up by apprx 35% from 200ema.and dow is struggling around 200ema since no of days and still it has not been able to cross it decisively.

normally in technical terms 200ema is very good tool to judge whether we r in a long term bullish or bearish state.

so i feel these charts are reflecting that US econmoy is yet in a bad shape in comparision of our econmoy.so for US it may be taking more time to improve health and for our markets we can correct and say we reach near 200dma and start moving up. we r having PE of 20+ so we have run ahead of fundamentals with optimstic sentiment due to favourable political set up.and by the time we correct fundamentals may catch up in coming 2 qtrs.

 

now coming to fibo no at 61.8%, that is not the only reason for concluding to book profits but there r no of other indicators or facts. we have moved by nearly 100% from bottom. we have moved up without any meaningful correction , and more we move up without such correction more we are in danger of bigger correction.-ve divergence is seen in rsi and macd. we r highly over boght in daily and weekly charts.

 

another thing what i feel is that if US markets cross 200ema decisively then FII may change their view towards emerging mkts and they may find value in their mkts in comaprision of emerging mkts and more profit booking can be seen in emerging mkts.

 

in nut shell we are at a very good higher lvls and it is time to genearte maxm cash or to park yr funds in defensive bets or diverting them to gold as a hedge.