Sat, Dec 29, 2012 at 15:14 Market rally may continue in 2013: Bejan Daruwalla

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/astrology/market-rally-may-continue2013-bejan-daruwalla_801174.html

RELIANCE AS ON 28.12.2012

RELAINCE is trading in a strong resistance area around 850. on crossing this zone decisively it can show more strength.

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update on 17.01.2013

reliance on fire..today seen 893........

cheers !

TECHNICAL VIEWS

TECHNICAL VIEW FROM VIVEK PATIL

http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_TechnicalOutlook_2013.pdf

TECHNICAL VIEWS FROM ICICI:

http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_TechnicalOutlook_2013.pdf

TECHNICAL VIEW OF LOKESHWARRI S.K., BUSINESS LINE 

December 30, 2012:  

Both the Sensex and the Nifty are set to end 2012 with aplomb, close to their yearly highs.

The first six months of the year were volatile with the indices staging a sharp rally in January and February only to give it all up by June. But the uptrend that began at the June trough continues to be in place towards the end of the year.

BSE mid and small cap indices that had suffered sharper declines in 2011 gained 38 per cent and 32 per cent respectively. But the long-term trend in these indices continues to be down. If the market turns volatile in 2013, the smaller stocks could see sharper declines.

LONG-TERM TREND

There is no alteration in the long-term trend we had outlined in the yearly outlook published for 2011 or 2012. To recount, we are assuming that the new cycle of a secular bull market began in 2001. One wave of this cycle ended at the January 2008 peak.

The second wave did not last long but was strong enough to lead to the assumption that the third wave of the secular bull market began in March 2009. In other words, it is highly unlikely that the Sensex will go back to 8047 or the Nifty to 2539 in the coming years. We stay with the first two long-term targets for the Sensex at 39,337 and 58,743 (to be achieved in the next 10 years). This count continues to be valid unless the Sensex closes below 13,000.

The corresponding long-term targets for the Nifty are 12,718 and 19,011. The long-term outlook will have to be altered only if the Nifty closes below 4000.

We had discussed an alternative count as well last year, the possibility of the move from 8047 in Sensex being the fifth of the long-term impulse wave. In this event, the supports for Sensex stay at 14,775 and 13,044. Nifty’s supports are at 4436 and 3916. According to this count too, the downside over the long term could be limited to 13,000 on the Sensex and around 4,000 on the Nifty.

The first part of the third wave from 8047 in the Sensex ended at the November 2010 peak of 21,108. The second part of this wave appears to be unfolding currently. The pattern thus far suggests that instead of being fast and deep, it will be long-drawn and shallow. We are already two years into this corrective move and it can easily extend for a year or more.

That sets the long-term trading range of 15,000 to 22,000 for the Sensex and between 4,500 and 6,500 in Nifty.

2013 OUTLOOK

In other words, 2013 could be more volatile than 2012. Sensex and Nifty could move on to new life-time highs, but it would be best to tread with caution at such times. There is the possibility of the indices reversing lower and going into sharp declines too.

We are not very clear on the pattern that the index is currently forming, but the indices could form a higher bottom in the next leg of the decline. Sensex could halt its decline around 17,000 and the Nifty around 5,000. Declines would, therefore, provide stock-picking opportunities for the long term.

The range for 2013 for Sensex is between 17,000 and 22,000 with outer limits at 15,000 and 31,500. The range for Nifty is between 5,000 and 6,500 with outer range at 4,500 and 8720. We will revisit the outlook during the year if the outer limits are breached.

TATA STEEL AS ON 18.12.2012

COMMENTS ON CHART !

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UPDATE AT THE END OF THE DAY .

BREAK OUT WITH GOOD VOLUMES AND TATA STEEL MOVES TO 415........

CHEERS .........

update as on 19.12.2012
tata steel tested 424 today.
cheers.......

TORRENT POWER AS ON 3.12.2012

COMMENTS ON CHART

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update as on 19.12.2012
target of traingle break out achived. torrent power tested 186 today.

SENSEX MONTHLY CHART AS ON 30.11.2012

Look at Monthly charts. Comments on charts.

SENSEX MONTHLY CHART AS ON 20.11.2012

comments on chart.

HAPPY DIWALI

HAPPY DIWALI & HAPPY NEW YEAR !

last year diwali picks performance !

M&Mfin rec at 888 last close 965
ULTRA TECH rec at 1133 last close 2016
ONGC reco at 277 last close 255

this DIWALI PICKS are as given below :

TV18 broadcast cmp 30.00
TORRENT POWER cmp 165
ZEELAERN cmp 31

SENSEX VIEWS - BULLISH & BEARISH

at present what i believe is that major bullish or bearish trend will be decided on confirmation that are we retracing fall from 21109 to 15135 as a pull back and again we will be back down wards?( Bearish View)

or we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on path of new bull run from 15135 and we are going to make a new high (Bullish View ).

BEARISH VIEW :

to negate bearish view, we should retrace maximum up to 80 % of fall, that is 80 % level of fall from 21109 to 15135 ( 5974 points ) comes around 19914.so if we cross 19914 than bearish view should be negated and we should think that new bull run has started. 

for this view we should correct in A-B-C pattern and we might have completed A(15135 to 18524), B (18524 to 15748) and we are on C ( 15748 to 19137 so far).

further options :

# it is possible we might have completed C at 19137 and we are on bigger C  down wards.( i consider this view as less probable  option.)

 a ) we are C-4 down wards from 19137 and we have tested 18535 so far, crossover of 19000 zone will confirm that C - 4 is over and we are on C -5 up wards with maxm target of 19914.

b) we have not completed C -4 at 18535 and we are still on down move from 19137. in this case we have got very good support around 18415 , 38.2 % retracement level and level by other fibo calculations.we complete correction somewhere between 17973 to 18535 and start up move as C - 5

in any case we shd not break 17973 , in that case it will be established that we have completed up move started  from 17251.and subsequently it may indicate ABC correction completed at 19137 and we are on bigger C down wards.

BULLISH VIEW : 

we have completed correction at 15135 and we are on new bull run . we are on first wave of up move from 15135.

we are on sub wave 3.4 from 19137 and after completing correction we will be on 3.5 to be followed by sub wave 4 down wards  ( correcting up move from 15748 to top to be made ) and sub wave 5 taking us to new high between 22500 to 24800.

SENSEX 19137 - FIBO RATIOS

 sensex corrected from top of 21109 to 15135. after that we moved up from 15135 to 18524( 3389 points up move ).

from 18524 we came down to 15748 ( 2776 points )

from 15748 we are in up move.so far we have moved up to 19137 ( today's high so far - 3389 points  up move )-- same as first up move of 3389 points

sub waves of moves from 15748 to 19132 are as given below.

(1) 15748 to 17631 ( up move of 1883 points ) 

(2) 17631 to 16598 ( dn move of 1033 points )

(3-i ) 16598 to 17973 ( up move of 1375 points )

(3-ii ) 17973 to 17251 ( dn move of 722 points )

(3-iii ) 17251 to 19137 ( up move of 1886 points )---2.61 times of (3-ii), apprx 1.33 times of (3-i)

so shd we correct now for the up move from 17251 to 19137?

let us c.

Pankaj Shah

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update on 11.10.2012
sensex has corrected from 19137 and made a low of 18581 so far today. 
we may see a bounce from here.on breach of 18552 only we may see more weakness.

cheers!.........
market bounces , sensex 18800+......

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update as on 18.10.2012
sensex bounced back from 18550 zone and shown good strength today.
now a clear range is established 18850 to 18550.break out from this range will give further direction.
if 18550 is broken watch a level of 18415 for a strong support. 

SENSEX AS ON 6.09.2012

comments on chart . 

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update 7.09.2012
with help of positive global markets bounce back from trend line support shown in charts.

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update  21.09.2012

at yesterday's top of 18866 we have completed retracement of 61.8% of total fall from 21109 to 15135. next imp zone comes around 75% to 80% around 19900.

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update   5.10.2012

we have seen high of 19137 today. looking at fibo ratios we may see short term correction.

TORRENT POWER CMP 158 OVER SOLD

TORRENT POWER cmp 158
showing +ve divergence in rsi in weekly as well as Daily charts.
it is showing good volumes also since last 2 days.
accumulation by informed circles?

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update as on 6.09.2012
cmp 181. fast up move book part profit.....

OPTO CIRCUITS AS ON 23.08.2012

Update : stock has given good bounce from expected support zone.....132......cheers !

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comments on chart

80% RETRACEMENT LEVEL TESTED

yesterday we have seen high of 17973 which was 80% of last fall from 18524 to 15749 and doji was formed. today again doji is seen and lower top lower bottom is formed.
as per bearish option if we are  correcting in A-B-C pattern from 18524 and if we have completed A at 15749, B at 17973 and if we are on C downwards now ?.......

let us c......

OPTO CIRCUITS AS ON 23.08.2012

comments on chart

BUY LT FOODS ( DAAWAT ) CMP 48

DAAWAT has given a good break out today post good results.

cmp 48

buy with sl  below 45 on closing basis

target 55

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update :

target of 55 achieved on 25.09.2012

cheers !

update  : 4/10/2012

DAWAT 60......

NEVER BUY A FALLING STOCK

Never average down. When a stock falls significantly below your purchase price, it is foolish to buy more. The stock is clearly not behaving the way you anticipated. Strangely enough, many investors will sell a winning position to lock in a profit because they are afraid the stock will decline and that profit will evaporate. Instead of selling, they should let the stock run as long as it "wants" to and sell only if they get a sell signal. 

They will not sell a stock that has declined because that would lock in the loss. People do not like to admit that they were wrong about a choice once they have made it. Therefore, rather than conclude that they made a bad choice, they convince themselves that the choice was right and that since the stock has declined it is a better deal now than it was originally. In a state of denial, they buy more of the stock that declined. 

If the investor bought right at the line of support, the stock should have risen rather than decline. Expert traders often buy at a line of support because that helps them minimize risk. If the stock falls to a close only 3% below that line of support, the experienced trader knows something is wrong and can sell with minimal loss. However, the amateur denies he made a mistake and buys more. If the stock declines, that is certainly not a buy signal, it is a sell signal. The stock was bought on a certain premise. If that premise proves to be wrong, there is no longer a valid reason for maintaining the position.

If you get a margin call, you have obviously been in the stock too long. A margin call occurs when the stock has had a significant decline. If your reasoning was sound when you purchased, that should not happen. Never meet a margin call. Why throw good money after bad? Save your cash for something that looks more promising rather than put it into something that has already started to fail. 

It is far better to buy more as a stock rises (average up), because it is behaving the way you anticipated. In other words, average up rather than average down. The fact that a stock is moving in the right direction after its purchase is evidence that the thinking behind that purchase was sound. It is an indication that the right decision was made. A stock that has already started to rise above its support, presents far less risk than a stock that already started to decline below its support. 

SOURCE : VFMDIRECT.COM

NIFTY IN A TRAINGLE

Nifty is consolidating in a triangle.

prev mail up date

we retraced from 17631 and so far we have made low of 16736. it is aprrox 50% retracement level of rise from 15748 to 17631. more over if we consider this correction in abc pattern, a from 17631 to 17039 ( 592 ) b from 17039 to 17319 ( 280 ) and c from 17319 to low so far today at 16736 ( 583 )
a = c , 200 dma is also around 16800.......time for a reversal in up ward direction must come soon...

NEXT RESISTANCE ZONE 17800

i will like to draw attention about some technical nos.

if we consider last intermediate tops and bottoms made, we made last intermediate bottom of 15748 , before that we made intermediate top of 18524. we have seen apprx 75% retracement since top of 21109 no of times . 75% retracement zone comes around 17830. more over if we draw a trendline connecting tops of 21109 and 18524 next resistance zone comes around 17800.

we have closed above 17500 today.so i feel gradually we should book some profits and generate cash levels when we are near 17800.equivalent zone in nifty may be around 5400.......

STOCKS LOOKING GOOD FOR SHORT TERM

ASHOK LEYLAND CMP 25.25,  STOP LOSS CLOSE BELOW 24.00
ALOK IND CMP 18.3,  STOP LOSS CLOSE BELOW 17.50
SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC INFRASTRUCTURE LTD. CMP 82.5 stop loss close below 72.00

STOCKS LOOKING GOOD FOR SHORT TERM ON CHARTS

Dewan Hsg (DHFL) - 174, Zydus well - 419 , Fkonco - 91 , Kohinoor foods - 27.40 looks good on charts 

SENSEX AS ON 15.06.2012

chart attached with comments

sensex two channels as on 17.05.2012

chart attached

75 % correction completed of last rise from 15135 to 18524

we have completed 75 % correction of last rise from low of 15135 to 18524 ( 3389 points ) at yesterday's low of 15975.

sensex is highly over sold. showing +ve divergence in daily rsi (5) chart.we are correcting since 13 weeks from top of 18524.

of course, sentiment as well as parameters around us either domestic or internationally are weak, but they might have been discounted in current prices.

in first up move from 15135 to 16049 , highest closing was 15970. yesterday we have closed at 16030 after making intra day low of 15975.this closing is just above 15970.

we may see a pull back from here.on closing below 15970 this view will be negated.

--
THE SHORTEST WAY TO DO MANY THINGS IS ................

TO DO ONE THING AT A TIME ..................................

TORRENT POWER CMP 203

torrent power has shown good bounce today . decisive close above 205 will strengthen the stock.move below 195 will negate this bullish view.

BIOCON CMP 239.

BIOCON is correcting from top of 465 and has corrected up to 225 which is apprx 62% retracement of previous up move.

+ ve divergence is seen in daily as well as weekly charts in rsi.in current side ways and boring market stock can be added with stop loss on closing basis below 225 .

on closing above 250/260 zone it will become more stronger.

10.37 am 

28.04.2012