MARKET UPDATE AS ON 31.8.10

update as on 7.9.10

on crossing 80% retracement level short covering and new long positions took market again today at top of channel.some profit booking may be seen here.

80% retracemnt zone (18350/5515) which was resistance previously may give support.

stop loss for long positions at 17820/5350

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update as on 31.8.10

today we broke channel referred in chart dated 27.8.10, broken prev top made at 5367, broke 50dma / 50 ema zone all on intra day basis , tested critical support zone of 5350 also ( EXACT LOW 5349) and came back in the channel on closing basis.

since we r retracing from 5550 zone as discussed earlier and we have seen broad based selling from there only we shd be cautious for all long positions, we should not buy considering simply cheaper than higher price seen before.

as discussed we have seen smart money chasing defensive stocks like pharma, fmcg and power stocks.today good up move was seen in all major fmcg counters when mkt reversed from 5350.

retracement levels where we may get resistance in up move in coming days which may be used for generating cash.

38.2 % 18070/5427

50 % 18148/5450

61.8 % 18225/5473

80 % 18344/5510

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20.8.10

my view is to alert all that we are poised at critical point in market. at a resistance of a channel running from long time and at critical fibo ratios time wise and price wise which can change direction in market.if this top of 5545 is crossed decisively then only we can see bullish moves immly otherwise chance of correcting are more.

us dollar index is on up move after correcting up to expected 80/82 zone and on crossing 83 again it will bring more n more weakness in us markets and up to what time we can be decoupled ?most of global markets have started weakening. liquidity is a driving force to sustain bullishness. when valuation are attractive in other markets or assets liquidity will shift and that can bring corrections.

better to move to defensive bets like fmcg/pharma/power time being for preservation of capital with some appreciation.let KING MARKET decide its direction.price has not shown any weakness. higher high and higher lows are seen.

one more technical matter, island reversal seen after first up move when lower top of 18895 was made (after top of 21206) is just filled. will we cross this zone?

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18.8.10

NIFTY STILL IN CHANNEL. LOOKING AT RED RESISTANCE LINE RESISTANCE MAY COME BETN 5520 TO 5560 APPRX.

-

VIEWS OF MADHU KELA

DEAR INVESTOR

Hinting at near doubling of investments made in stocks, Anil Ambani group's renowned fund manager Madhusudan Kela has predicted that the benchmark Sensex will cross 30,000-point level in the next 3-5 years. Although cautious about the market outlook in the next three months, Kela told PTI that he was highly bullish in the longer term.

Kela will be taking over as the Chief Investment Strategist at Anil Ambani group's financial services arm Reliance Capital from September 21, following his elevation from Head of Equities at Reliance Mutual Fund currently.

"I am bullish about the stock market's performance in the medium to long term and expect the Sensex may even go beyond 30,000 level in the next 3-5 years. FII inflows are also expected to be robust in the long term," Kela said.

A surge in Sensex to over 30,000 level, from near 18,000 points currently, would mean close to 100 per cent rise in the next 3-5 years.

However, he is bearish about the short term and thinks the stock market may be impacted if FIIs start selling amid uncertainty in global markets.

"I expect the stock market may see a correction of around 10 per cent in the next three months if FII inflows, which are fuelling the stocks at present, become subdued. And there is not enough demand from domestic investors to keep the market afloat," Kela added.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have poured in as much as Rs 11, 447.60 crore so far in August, according to data available on the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) website.

With improving global economic conditions, the FII investments have been robust this year with their total inflows close to Rs 60,000 crore so far in 2010.

The BSE benchmark index Sensex had settled at below the 18,000 mark at 17,998.41 down 227 points on Friday last week.

From January to August, the Sensex has been moving mostly in the range of 16,000-17,000 levels, though it had touched its highest level of 18,475 points for the first time since February 2008 on August 19.

Asked if Indian equities at present were overvalued as compared to their peers in BRIC (Brazil, Russia and China and India), Kela said, "foreign investors are still bullish on Indian stocks as they are still under owned by them as compared to Chinese equities."

With his new responsibilities, Kela would play a crucial role in expanding Reliance Capital's businesses, mentoring portfolio managers and providing strategic inputs and guidance on investments across the RCAP group of firms

R COM AS ON 30.8.10

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

NIFTY AS ON 27.8.10

look at chart attached.

stocks looking positive for next week : ongc & ntpc

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update on 30.8.10

ongc showing strength, power grid has also started moving up can be watched for

short term upmove.

NIFTY IN CHANNEL AS ON 19.8.10

NIFTY STILL IN CHANNEL. RESISTANCE MAY COME BETN 5520 TO 5560 APPRX.

look at bigger channel with interesting fibo levels.

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my view is to alert all that we are poised at critical point in market. at a resistance of a channel running from long time and at critical fibo ratios time wise and price wise which can change direction in market.if this top of 5545 is crossed decisively then only we can see bullish moves immly otherwise chance of correcting are more.

us dollar index is on up move after correcting up to expected 80/82 zone and on crossing 83 again it will bring more n more weakness in us markets and up to what time we can be decoupled ?most of global markets have started weakening. liquidity is a driving force to sustain bullishness. when valuation are attractive in other markets or assets liquidity will shift and that can bring corrections.

better to move to defensive bets like fmcg/pharma/power time being for preservation of capital with some appreciation.let KING MARKET decide its direction.price has not shown any weakness. higher high and higher lows are seen.

one more technical matter,gap seen when island reversal was seen after first up move when lower top of 18895 was made (after top of 21206) is just filled. will we cross this zone?

NIFTY IN CHANNEL AS ON 19.8.10

look at bigger channel with interesting fibo levels.

NIFTY IN CHANNEL AS ON 18.8.10

NIFTY STILL IN CHANNEL. LOOKING AT RED RESISTANCE LINE RESISTANCE MAY COME BETN 5520 TO 5560 APPRX.

GMR INFRA AS ON 17.8.10

LOOK AT CHART OF  GMR INFRA 

UPDATE ON SBI AS ON 13.8.10

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED, COMMENTS ON CHART

are we moving in a channel?

look at chart. are we moving in a channel?

so far we are in channel!

are we moving in a channel?

look at chart. are we moving in a channel?

SENSEX AS ON 10.08.2010

CHART SHOWING SUPPORTS

NEED OF INSURANCE

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Most insurance plans available today come with a savings element built into it which would enable you to have a comfortable retirement.

These policies help you plan not only for protection against death but also for a financially independent future.

 The amount of premiums payable depends upon the type of policy, term of policy sum and your age. You could pay these premiums monthly/half-yearly/annually.

US DOLLAR INDEX / UPDATE AS ON 10.8.10

update as on 10.8.10

us dollar index has tested 80 zone approximately and bounced from there with +ve divergence in daily chart as shown in attached chart.equity markets move in inverse direction normally.read more comments on charts.

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8.7.10

LOOK AT CHART OF US DOLLAR INDEX ATTACHED HEREWITH.ITS MOVEMENT MAY GUIDE 

US FOR FURTHER MOVES IN EQUITY MARKET.BELOW 83.3LEVEL NEXT SUPPORT ZONE IS 

BETN 80 AND 82 ZONE . 200 DMA IS NEAR 82 AND 200EMA IS SHOWN IN CHART.NORMALLY 

WEAKNESS IN US DOLLAR INDEX HAD HELPED FOR UP MOVES IN EQUITY MARKETS AND 

GOLD.

MARKET

STOP LOSS LEVELS

SHORT TERM 18118/5431

MEDIUM TERM 17395/5210

LONG TERM  15960/4796

SO FAR WE ARE OBSERVING HIGHER LOWS AND HIGHER HIGHS.BE CAUTIOUS IN LONG POSITIONS.

ON WEAKNESS IN EURO US DOLLAR INDEX IS SHOWING STRNGTH AFTER TESTING APPRX 80  ZONE.DAILY CHARTS ARE 

SHOWING +VE DIVERGENCE AND PRICE IS ALSO SHOWING +VE ACTION. STRENGTH IN US DOLLAR INDEX MAY BRING 

WEAKNESS IN EQUITY MARKETS.

views of Shrikant Chouhan, Technical analyst

The week past and expected

The market is under compression mode as the market is failing to trade above 5450/5470 levels even though the world

markets are doing well. As per daily chart the market is diverging negatively which is an indication of pause of the current

trend or likely shift in coming few days. Even if we look at the daily trend of the market then one can clearly notice that

it is under rising wedge formation that suggests us phase of distribution. Currently it has final support at 5350/17840 but

it seems difficult to break in the near term.

As per our past experience and findings it seems that it will spend time between 5350 and 5520 (maximum on the higher

side) and dismissal of the range will trigger "massive break out or break down on either side. We feel that the market will

break the lower band but while looking at world markets and status of the domestic currency it may even break upward

range. On the dismissal of the lower range we may expect minimum 5200/17370 lower side.

Sector specific: Banks, IT, Auto and Consumer durables may do well however, buying is advisable only at major supports

or on declines. Reality and Cement stocks one can trade on recoveries from lower levels and not on dips. Capital goods,

Infra, Pharmaceuticals and Metal stocks may find resistance at higher levels as profit taking will minimize the upside for

the same. Even midcap and small cap stocks may come under pressure of profit taking as the current move seems to be

over extended; be cautious or choose while investing at current and at higher levels.

Nifty Strategy: For the day, selling is advisable below 5430 with a tight stop loss above 5460 and for the target 5380 and

5365. In the second half, if the market sustains above 5460 then buying is advisable with a stop loss below 5430 for the

target 5490 and 5520.

updates from VIVEK PATIL

9/08/10

updates from vivek patil.

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Even if we do see further rallies, the question right now is whether the same would keep facing profit-booking, even if they do hit higher

levels. Previous two new highs of Jul'10 did get sold into, firstly at 18167, and then at 18238. In fact, the bigger picture since last Oct

shows all news highs of this rally attracted selling, each time Sensex shaving off 2100 to 2400 points.

Structurally, the "i" leg appears to be developing as a Contracting Triangle. The "c" leg was 61.8% of "a", and "d" was 61.8% of

"b", forming into contraction. The "e" leg will achieve 61.8% ratio to "c" leg at about 17325.

Though not resisted at 80% retracement level, topping formations can even show Double Tops or measured higher highs.

Topping action usually turns out to be a tricky affair, and the same will be expected as long as the Sensex keeps its head

below the maximum potential of 18357.

That potential was also explained as the upper end of the year-long channel shown on the Daily chart.

To keep any bullish option open for the next week, Sensex should not only move above last week's high of 18295, but

also above 18357 level.

 

SBI LOOKING WEAK

LOOK AT CHART .

TIME TO SHORT SBI SHARES. ONE CAN BUY PUTS ALSO TO SHORT .

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IF WE TRY TO WORK OUT UPMOVE FROM 894 TO 2663 IN 5 SUB WAVES

* 894 TO 1935

* 1935 TO 1512

* 1512 TO 2500

* 2500 TO 1863

* 1863 TO 2663