5 DAY CHART AS ON 25.09.09 AND 30.09.09

COMMENTS ON CHART

MARKET AND STOCKS FOR NEXT WEEK

LOOK AT CHARTS ATTACHED HEREWITH.

STOCKS LOOKING TECHNICALLY GOOD ARE AS FOLLOWS.

IOC/ HPCL/BPCL (MAY BE BCZ OF OIL INDIA LISTING ON 30/9)

PHARMA STOCKS

******************************************
UPDATE ON 26.09.09
looking at weekly charts pharma stocks r on overbought side so it may advisable to book profit in pharma stocks also on further run up.
oil and gas sectotor has been consolidating since jun tops. it needs a strong brek out from current lvls to outperform.

******************************************************

UPDATE ON 29.09.09

PHARMA STOCKS GIVE GOOD UPMOVE.

OIL AND GAS SECTOR ALSO GAVE GOOD RUN IN LEADERSHIP OF ONGC AND GAIL.

IOC , HPCL AND BPCL R DN TODAY.CAN GIVE MOVE UP TOMORROW ON LISTING OF OIL INDIA.

videocon

Videocon may be better known for consumer durables, but the company's little known oil exploration business is the star and the promoters may be set to make that into a money-spinner.

Videocon Industries,India's leading consumer durables maker, surprisingly, does not have sale of electronic appliances as its major revenue churner. Instead, it's the oil and gas exploration and production business, which is the cash cow.

According to sources, Videocon is looking at unlocking their value by either hiving off the business or going for a public listing overseas. While chairman Venugopal Dhoot did not reveal the details, he accepted that an expert has been roped in to look into the various options.

Venugopal Dhoot, chairman of Videocon Industries, said, "We expect good recovery from Brazil in a year or two and our oil and gas business is currently doing extraordinarily well.

********************************************************

29/09/09

videocon moves up , tested 258.

5 DAY CHART AS ON 25.09.09

COMMENTS ON CHART

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29.09.09

break out from triangle on up ward side gives move of 200+ points today.

cheers !

TENTETATIVE WAVE COUNT IF WE R ON 5TH WAVE

after putting this wave count in isg i had received interesting comments from tech analyst friend MAHIS. and mostly he wanted to convey that we r not following 5 wave pattern from 7697 but  a 3 wave coorective pattern from 8047 from where 3rd wave was shown in 5 wave count pattern.

i shared this chart with a senior analyst and i got reply from him with both options bullish and bearish in same chart. it is interesting to see. i am putting here link for the same.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEictsMnj7gbQ2QqVJpypPfmXheDQ6TDU73_nc1E9FK6qw12Q51Y2CJndExk-5hFDj986ES5JtdLG_qyDNUAPBNh7zQJSbTvV8aa8Z1S9OdpwE2igl-Cmy10xCytaROuKeqsmbC4kM0NTSVr/s1600-h/1.PNG

please go thru it.end resiluts r same. enjoy it.

.

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Posted By pankaj564 to PANKAJ SHAH at 9/22/2009 05:14:00 PM

GAP AT 16477-16498

LOOK AT CHART

*************************************************

MARKET BOUNCED FROM CHANNEL SUPPPORT AREA AS EXPECTED !

CHEERS !

Fwd: Sensex Weekly RSI

DEAR FRIENDS,

MR. VENKATESH HAS SENT ONE BEAUTIFUL CHART WITH HIS COMMENTS.
GO THRU IT. IT IS MATCHING WITH MY 5 SUB WAVE CHART READINGS.

PANKAJ SHAH

***************************************************************************************************

Dear Pankajbhai,

Please find the chart attached showing weekly RSI from bull market beginning in 2002-2003. We are nearing and very fast approaching the RSI levels of 75-78 . If we look at all the previous occasions when the RSI did go upto that point, the Sensex corrected by atleast 30% from the highs (if we take the high and lows of these times). This time I have a feeling the high may occur at the levels of maybe 17,800 - 18,000 on the Sensex (if the present rally continues without a fall). From thereon, a 30% correction could very well take us back to 12,600 levels (70% of 18,000). This may happen slowly over a period of 3-4 months maybe till Feb / March and not as fast as the fall from 21K. We have to remember that in all the previous corrections we were in a bull market so corrections stopped at around 29%-30%. As of now if global conditons go bad, the correction maybe more severe here. Please do let me know your views too sir. I am learning from your very valuable posts on the groups.

Many Thanks,

Venkatesh

ONGC ON A CRITICAL LEVEL

COMMENTS ON CHART

*****************************************

29.09.09

ONGC HAS GIVEN GOOD RUN UP TODAY. CLOSED AROUND 1195 , MORE UPMOVE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OIL INDIA ALLOTMENT LINK

http://mis.karvycomputershare.com/ipo/

TENTETATIVE WAVE COUNT IF WE R ON 5TH WAVE

in continuation of yesterday's mail tenetative wave counts r shown.

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SENSEX WAVE COUNT WITH 5 SUB WAVES AS ON 18.09.09

COMMENTS ON CHART.

STOCKS FOR NEXT WEEK

IF MARKETS ARE POSITIVE FOLLOWING STOCKS CAN BE TRADED FOR NEXT WEEK.

 

STRICT STOP LOSS TO BE FOLLOWED.

 

RPOWER

RIIL

GMR INFRA

CIPLA

GLENMARK

ADANIENTERPRISE

ADANI POWER

BAJAJ HINDUSTAN

SENSEX AS ON 17.09.09

COMMENTS ON CHART.

BUY AMBUJA CEMENT FOR INTRA DAT CMP 101

BUY AMBUJA CEMENT FOR INTRA DAY AT 101. SL 99

STOP LOSS TRIGGERED..

VIVEK PATIL VIEW

ATTACHED HEREWITH CHART SHOWN BY VIVEK PATIL

ALERT : SENSEX TESETED 16632

Friends

today we have tested 16632. it is a monthly resistance if we look at monthly chart of last 2 yrs. in 6/2008 16632 was high.

it is close to 61.8% to retracement level of fall from 21206 to 7697

PE of sensex is at 22 which is a historical resistance for sensex in normal years except bubble years like 1992/2000/2008.

if we sustain above this zone of 16632 for 3 days then we shd think any bullish direction otherwise we can see correction from here.

vivek patil has been referring 7 legged wave structure with apprx target of 16700(G wave) and time target of this move was maxm upto today.

be cautious here in taking any long positions.

Pankaj Shah

FEDERAL BANK

LOOK AT CHART OF FEDERAL BANK.

******************************************************************************

FEDERAL MOVES UP AS PER EXPECTATION WITH GOOD VOLUMES HIGH SO FAR 248+

CHEERS !

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 11.09.09

refer last week market status message

 

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/09/fwd-market-status.html

 

as mentioned we saw good moves in bank shares and we can see further upmove in bank shares.

 

we have reached at upper boundary of consolidating triangle and we will move by 2000 points in sensex in breaking direction.

 

immediate support for sensex is at 15793 at gap area as well as on trendline running from march lows.break of 15793 on closing basis will end the rallly.on closing decisively above 16600 we can see break out in upward direction.-ve divergence in rsi, macd and momentum is still there.

 

next week may be deciding week for direction.

--

--

market views

i reproduce my views given in isg .

********************************************

we are consolidating in a tringle. actually we have to see that it
proves to be a continuation bullish pattern or wedge shaped bearish
pattern.time wise we have completed equality yesterday and we have
seen new high and seen sell off from there.break out or beak down from
this triangle will give move of apprx 2400 points in sensex in the
concerned direction.next week will be very crucial for us. so either
18800 or 12800 apprx.

i will like to add here we r observing -ve divergence in rsi,
momentum, macd so more likely to be bearish wedge is expected.but in
mkt till price confirmation not seen we cant take it for granted. we
can keep stop loss of 15357 for long positions . below that we can see
first lower bottom formation which will be first technical reversal.

more over as i have shown in other thread we faced strong resistance
at upper trendline of consoldiating triangle upper trendline as well
as in rsi(5) upper trendline. it will be interesting to see now. if we
r following a 3 sub wave move than it is completed today and if we r
following 5 sub wave move then a dnmove to be followed by upmove and
reversal.price wise we have almost achieved targets as per 61.8%
retarcement.gap shown in that chart will provide some support.

Spandan's view more valid as far as elliot is concerned. as per my
discussion with him he was to update on this weekend.

my views can go wrong.take yr own decisions.

Pankaj Shah

SENSEX AS ON 10.09.09

LOOK AT CHART

time to prepare selling list

i am just forwarding one mail recd from  isgian......

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Pratik Patel <ppp99s@gmail.com>
Date: 2009/9/9
Subject: isg -Pratik update
/a>>

TIME   TO    PREPARE      SELLING LIST

...........................................................................................................

 

Count Down looks started. It is a matter of days and not weeks. One shall now PREPARE SELLING LIST ( F N O). Market may give Final spark before correction.

 

 

Look at the low of 7697.39 on 27-10-2008.

 

Sensex Recorded 100 % gain in just 123 sessions.

 

Just look Sensex contributors from 15K to 16 K..

(1)Tata Motors :

 

Contributed 52 points in this 1000 point rally while rose 32 %

 

(2) RCOM :

 

Contributed 68 Points to this rally while itself  surged 30 %

 

(3) Infosys :

 

Highest contributor to the tune of 185 points while it rose 14 %

 

(4) RELIANCE :

 

Second largest contributor to 1000 Point rally ,118 Points and added 6 % in its value. Today also Reliance was 3.63 % up total comes to 9.63 % up

 

(5) Maruti suzuki

 

also added 48 Points in this rally while added 20 % to its price.

 

 

Same way you can prepare List of stocks which rose considerable during last month. When market fall, they must have to contribute in fall !!!!!!!

 

Fwd: OIL INDIA

LOOK AT COPARISION OF OIL INDIA WITH PEER COMPANIES

Fwd: 5 DAY CHART

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

******************************************

UPDATE AT 12.33 PM

RSI TRENDLINE HAS GIVEN SUPPORT AND WE ARE OBSERVING BOUNCE EXACTLY FROM THERE. WAIT FOR BREAK OF IT FOR DOWN MOVES

**********************************************

MARKET BROKE RSI SUPPORT LINE AND ON BREAK OF IT WE LOST APPRX 150 POINTS FROM TOP IN FEW MINS

QUOTE FROM BLOG OF SUDARSHAN SUKHANI

Market is bigger than any analysis ( including yours! ) ; The trend is intact until it is broken ( i.e. do not anticipate end of a trend); Focus on following a disciplined strategy rather than focusing on making the correct call as that is what works in trading."

16 K AGAIN

today we have tested 16k again. last time we tested 16k and reversed from there upto 14684 and we have moved up again.as i had updated in after noon as per trendline now we get strong resistance at 16300. rsi trendline is at resistance only.

 

 in nifty chart we have crossed triangle which is pending in sensex.on crossing 16300 we can face big resistance in monthly chart at 16632 which was seen in june 2008.more over it is close to target of 16700 given by vivek patil as per his G wave and 22pe of sensex lvl.

MARKET STATUS

 update on 7.09.2009 4.30 p.m.
15950/16000 hurdles r crossed today. now trendline resistance comes around 16300where we can see strong resistance.profit booking suggested at 16300 zone.

Fwd: BUY ESCORT CMP 81.5

BUY ESCORTS AT 81.5 FOR SHORT TERM TRADING STOP LOSS 75 TARGET 92

**********************************************************************************
UPDATE ON 18.09.2009
ESCORT 92. TARGET ACHIEVED.
CHEERS!

psychology of market players

Fwd: MARKET STATUS

Friends

 

two charts r attached today. in daily chart we saw a bounce from a critical support level which was intimated yesterday with a 5 day chart.downward channel break out value was achieved yesterday only.what next?

 

next technical hurdles r 15950 and 16000 prev immediate tops , on crossing them we will observe trendline of triangle shown in chart where we get resistance.

 

in weekly chart time equality is shown. if u recall my analyst friend Dr. Spandan Joshi had shown wave count as Ba, Bb and Bc for upmove from 8047 and according to him time taken for Bb+Bc shd be equal to time taken by Ba.i have shown in weekly chart the same. next week it will be time equality zone.so be cautious here onwards in long positions bcz rsi, macd and momentum all r showing -ve divergence.any decisive move out of this triangle with rise in volumes and change in other indicators can change this view.

 

now for long positions after 13220,14684 higher bottom is 15357 which shd be used as strict stop loss.

 

for next few days trading we can look at bank shares like allahabad bank, andhra bank, kotak bank...and few other stocks which r looking good technically like adlab, mll, sesa goa. but with strict stop loss since we are reaching to a very critical time zone.

 

i may go wrong in my views. do yr own studies before taking  decision.

*****************************************************************************

update on 7.09.2009 4.30 p.m.
15950/16000 hurdles r crossed today. now trendline resistance comes around 16300where we can see strong resistance.profit booking suggested at 16300 zone.

IOC bonus issue

IOC board to meet on 13/9/09 to declare BONUS issue

Scrip Code:530965   Company:Indian Oil Corporation Ltd

04 September 2009

Subject:	IOC Board to consider Bonus Issue
Announcement:	Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on September 13, 2009, inter alia, to consider issue of bonus shares, subject to the approval of the shareholders.

5 DAY CHART AS ON 4.09.09

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED .

 

COMMENTS ON CHART

***************************************************************************

market gives break out from channel and moves up by 290 points!

cheers!

MOVING AVERAGES

attached herewith a chart showing moving averages of nifty 50 stocks (30d/50dand 200 day)

 

red and blue clor indicates where they r quoted a on today.

 

look at no of stocks which r trading below 30day. not healthy.

 

no of stocks r trading near 50 dma.

 

time to be watchful for short and medium term.

 

good thing in this stastics is that all stocks r tarding above 200 dma.

 

Company Name	Current	Change	- SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE -
	Price	%	30 Days	50 Days	200 Days
ABB	729.25	-0.24	704.57	717.57	546.72
ACC	769	-1.2	829.09	811.39	635.16
Ambuja Cements	99.85	1.27	100.9	97.97	79.81
Axis Bank	888.6	-0.07	886.46	859.52	596.73
Bharti Airtel	404.95	-1.85	409.32	406.21	361.11
BHEL	2,196.55	-0.19	2,249.43	2,207.26	1,722.73
BPCL	554.55	2.58	497.71	477.99	405.69
Cairn India	255.55	-0.33	245.12	238.05	194.56
Cipla	266	-1.63	273.21	269.7	222.56
DLF	412.85	0.45	391.51	361.57	268.59
GAIL	357.75	3.73	332.18	324.94	255.46
Grasim	2,607.50	0.03	2,686.91	2,605.39	1,790.17
HCL Tech	302.65	-2.09	265.35	236.8	158.14
HDFC	2,382.10	-0.51	2,416.44	2,405.06	1,855.35
HDFC Bank	1,435.40	-0.23	1,444.05	1,442.68	1,153.33
Hero Honda	1,547.75	-0.82	1,530.51	1,504.78	1,131.90
Hindalco	103	-0.82	103.14	94.49	67.17
HUL	267.65	0.19	269.49	269.09	250.33
ICICI Bank	735.95	-0.02	746.49	731.89	529.13
Idea Cellular	79.8	0.06	78.52	76.27	60.64
Infosys	2,187.20	1.03	2,059.78	1,956.19	1,502.78
ITC	226.8	-0.55	234.5	223.53	190.91
Jindal Steel	3,170.90	-0.02	3,022.07	2,831.91	1,673.27
Larsen	1,514.75	-1.14	1,505.01	1,493.17	1,028.46
Mah and Mah	813.05	-1.47	822.45	783.86	504.86
Maruti Suzuki	1,507.40	-0.13	1,382.67	1,271.16	853.73
NALCO	328.9	-0.53	320.83	308.26	249.68
NTPC	205.6	-0.7	210.4	205.46	188.86
ONGC	1,140.25	-1.32	1,156.69	1,112.44	874.88
PNB	678.4	-0.08	689.11	678.29	527.77
Power Grid Corp	106.35	-1.44	111.41	110.05	96.76
Ranbaxy Labs	315.65	-2.05	295.93	279.5	227.26
Rel Capital	890	-0.27	855.48	854.76	622.24
Reliance	1,930.80	-2.05	1,987.34	1,967.28	1,636.99
Reliance Comm	291.4	5.54	265.81	268.92	229.72
Reliance Infra	1,118.75	-0.22	1,154.44	1,151.19	802.82
Reliance Power	160.6	0.12	163.49	163.69	133.38
SAIL	160.1	0.41	167.67	163.09	116.39
SBI	1,747.00	0.73	1,751.03	1,720.68	1,379.63
Siemens	488.75	-1.63	472.32	464.91	338.8
Sterlite Ind	644.6	1.68	648.21	628.54	427.16
Sun Pharma	1,185.80	-0.36	1,200.59	1,190.52	1,156.17
Suzlon Energy	100.15	3.09	92.95	95.01	70.41
Tata Comm	488.05	-1.12	494.35	486.31	484.96
Tata Motors	510.3	-1.89	440.35	383.83	249.7
Tata Power	1,265.20	-1.37	1,284.06	1,218.70	922.89
Tata Steel	420.65	1.34	450.34	425.42	288.31
TCS	533.65	-0.18	518.21	474.69	329.27
Unitech	103.15	0.49	91.27	85.59	55.01
Wipro	551.6	-0.5	508.12	464.17	323.54

 

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Posted By pankaj564 to PANKAJ SHAH at 9/03/2009 05:26:00 PM

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