Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 28.08.09 AND NIFTY PE CHART

Friends

 

i have attched two charts today.

 

technical observations:

 

we r in uptrend since last 7 dys. monday 8th trading day a fibo no, chances of reversal high

 

rsi(5) is at 77, as per trendline resitance comes at 80

 

rsi (14) at 62, as per trendline resistance comes at 64

 

we are trading at PE of 21+ as per attched chart.historically we have corrected from 22 zone except euphoric years like 1992/2000/2008.time to be cautious and to liquidate holdings in next week.

 

mid and small cap r outperforming since couple of weeks. sensex  has moved in range of 13500 to 15500 apprx for 3 months . in 2007 nov-dec sensex moved like this in range of 18500-20500 for 2 months and gave a break out upto 21200 with help very few stocks and market corrected heavily from there.

 

next week trading range cld be 15200-16200. on break of 15200 we can go for big correction bcz that will violate upmoving trend line running from march lows.chances of market topping out around 16500 are bright. trade accordingly.

 

i may go wrong in my views.

 

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 26.08.09

LOOK AT CHART.

 

STOCKS LOOKING ATTRACTIVE

 

UNITY INFRA,

 

CEMENT STOCKS

 

PART PROFIT BOOKING ADVISABLE AT HIGHER LEVEL IN YESTERDAY'S CALL RIIL

 

AFTER GOOD UPMOVE .

****************************************************************************
intra day update

unity infra has given good upmove in lacklluster market.

look at NIRMA
it is improving with volume and may give good break out!

NHPC ALLOTMENT LINK

CHECK YR NHPC ALLOTMENT ON THIS LINK

http://mis.karvycomputershare.com/ipo/

PERFORMANCE OF MOMENTUM STOCKS FOR TRADING

ON 18/8/2009 I HAD GIVEN A LIST OF MOMENTUM STOCKS FOR TRADING.TILL DATE THEIR PERFORMANCE IS AS GIVEN BELOW.

avaya global 124.5

OPEN 125.55 HIGH 147.6 LOW 125 CLOSE 147.6

tricom 17

OPEN 17.25 HIGH 22.3 LOW 16.55 CLOSE 17.8

onmobile 528

OPEN 526 HIGH 565.8 LOW 515 CLOSE 525

geodesic 123

OPEN 128 HIGH 134 LOW 119.15 CLOSE 123.3

micro tech 137

OPEN 138.45 HIGH 151.5 LOW 126.5 CLOSE 149.45

orchid chem 111.50

OPEN 111.5 HIGH 121.6 LOW 111.5 CLOSE 119.75

WE HAVE GOT OPPORTUNITIES TO BUY AND SELL THESE STOCKS DURING THESE DAYS.

FURTHER UPMOVES R SEEN IN MICRO TECH AND ORCHID

CHEERS !

UPDATES ON 3.09.09

GEODESIC 20% UP

STOCK TO WATCH STERLING BIO CMP 117

STOCK FOR PATINET INVESTERS STERLING BIO CMP 117

STOP LOSS 111

ALERT

HERE U CAN SEE ALERT WHICH WAS SENT IN DEC 2007 BEFORE WE MADE A TOP AT 21206. JUST TRY TO COMPARE CURRENT  SITUATION WITH THAT . NO OF PARAMETERS DICUSSED AT THAT TIME R PRESENT NOW. OF COURSE WE WERE TRADING AT A VERY HIGH PE OF AROUND 28 IN THAT EUPHORIC PERIOD WHICH COMES ONCE IN A VERY LONG TIME FRAME LIKE 8 YRS.WE ARE TRADING AROUND PE OF 21+ AND WE NORMALLY TOP OUT AT PE OF 22.

 

HERE ALSO I WILL LIKE TO SAY THAT THIS IS NOT A SHORTING CALL BUT TO JUST REMIND TO GENEARTE CASH. BUYING CALLS WILL COME FROM ALL DIRECTIONS.

BE CAUTIOUS AND FOLLOW STRICT STOP LOSSES.

*****************************************************************

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: pankaj564

Date: Dec 14 2007, 10:54 pm
Subject: ALERT : MKT MAY TOP OUT IN FEW WEEKS
To: investmentsupergrowth

market has formed last bottom in june 2006 at 8800. we r in 19 th
month from that bottom.february will be 21 st month (fibo no) from
bottom,so monthly trend may become down from there. so i expect
january may see a top.
last time in may 2006 we saw a top at 12671 and in june 2006 bottom of
8800 was sen . good erosion in prices was seen.
at present we can see no of parametrs which can indicate top coming
soon.
* mid cap and small cap out performance
* decrease in large cap turn over and increase in mid/small cap turn
over
* buying circuits in no of small cap stocks
* -ve divergence on charts
* valuations
* up move of laggard sectors
* up move of defensive stocks

so i expect december to end with bullish note with nav lifting moves
and by mid jan new top formation , bearish period may prevail in feb/
mar and april.

buying calls r given but finally net cash generation is must and
disinvestment of medium term investment is must to take advantage of
correction.

members may share their views.this is a probability not a shorting
call.

PankajShah

--

MOMENTUM STOCK : SATYAM CMP 108

BUY SATYAM FOR SHORT TERM TRADING CMP 108,

STOP LOSS 100

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 25.08.09 AND RIIL CHART

LOOK AT CHARTS ATTACHED.

 

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/08/fwd-sensex-as-on-190809.html

5 DAY CHART

LOOK AT CHART

UPDATE AT 3.00 PM

ON CROSSING RSI TREND LINE MARKET ON FIRE !

SENSEX 15700+

CHEERS !

MOMENTUM STOCK ORCHID CHEMICAL CMP 111.50

BUY ORCHID CHEMICAL CMP 111.5

STOP LOSS 104.5

 

MICHHAMI DUKKADAM

MICHHAMI DUKKADAM to all readers

Fwd: TWO OPTIONS AS ON 21.08.09

looking at yeterday's upmove and global markets it seems we have completed downmove which started from 16002 at 14684 . as  i had discussed earlier that we may be in 5th wave than this upmove will be third sub wave to be followed by 4th dn and 5th up.

 

as i had shown in alternative wave count that if we are  correcting as Ba-Bb-Bc than we will be on last upmoving sub wave Bc-c. i have shown both options in attached chart.

 

sensex levels :- as discussed yesterday in 5 day charts first target and hurdle will be around 15500 and on crossing it , next hurdle comes at 16000 prev top.on crossing 16k we may face strong resistance betn 16200-16500 area and valuations will be also on higher side.so i think it will be advisable move to book profits on crossing 16k in investments .

 

i have shown rsi trend lines also in chart which are helping us in short term moves on both sides which can be tarcked by u on sensex charts easily. as it is always seen in last leg of rally now outperformance and heavy volumes r seen in mid and small cap stocks.care is to be taken that we r not stuck with high valued stocks at end of rally. so necessary strict stop losses r needed.

 

STOP LOSSES FOR LONG POSITIONS . FIRST AT 15135 AND SECOND 14684.

i will like to remind another bullish option i have been discussuing was 5th wave of first upmove and i had given wave count as below

13220-14493
14493-14170
14170-16002
16002-14684
14684-running

more over as per vivek patil analysis of 7 legged upmove a-b-c-d-e-f-g we might have completed f and we may be on g now to end this bull run.



SMALL CORRECTION: IN CHART WAVES R SHOWN AS d AND e. THEY SHD BE READ AS 4 AND 5 TO MATCH WITH NARRATION.

5 DAY CHAT

LOOK AT CHART 1, 2 AND 3

 

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/08/fwd-5-day-chart.html

 

 

 

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/08/fwd-5-day-chart_21.html

buy ghcl at 42

call from technical analyst NOORESH MERANI

 

buy GHCL at 42

 

target 47

 

stop loss 39.5

Fwd: 5 day chart

look at chart

Fwd: 5 DAY CHART

LOOK AT 5 DAY CHART

OBSERVE FERTILISER STOCKS

FERTILISER STOCKS R COORECTING SINCE LONG AND YESTERDAY TEHY HAVE SHOWN SOME VOLUMES. IF VOLUME EXPANSION ALONGWITH PRICE APPRICIATION IS SEEN BUYING CAN BE DONE IN STOCKS LIKE DEEPAK FERTILISER, CHAMABAL FERTILISER.

Fwd: alternative wave count

have a look at chart. i have tried to put an alternative wave count to justify last upmove.

Panacea Biotec hits the roof on large order

Panacea Biotec hits the roof on large order

Panacea Biotec was locked at 5% upper limit at Rs 174 at 13:11 IST on BSE, having recovered from the session's low of Rs 160.10, after the company bagged an order worth $222.37 million for supply of a vaccine.


At the day's low of Rs 160.10, the stock slumped 3.41% before the company made this announcement during trading hours.

Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex was down 318.95 points, or 2.12%, to 14,716.31.

On BSE, 33,229 shares were traded in the counter. The stock had an average daily volume of 19,439 shares in the past one quarter.

The stock hit a high of Rs 174 and a low of Rs 160.10 so far during the day. The stock hit a 52-high of Rs 316 on 25 August 2008 and a 52-week low of Rs 51 on 2 February 2009.

The mid-cap stock had outperformed the market over the past one month till 17 August 2009, gaining 25.75% as compared to the Sensex's 0.27% rise. It had also outperformed the market in the past one quarter, surging 77.93% as compared to the Sensex's return of 21.45%.

The company's current equity is Rs 6.68 crore. Face value per share is Rs 1.

The current price of Rs 174 discounts the company's Q1 June 2009 annualized EPS of Rs 7.80, by a PE multiple of 22.31.

The company has secured a contract worth $222.37 million (Rs 1067 crore) from United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) for supplying EasyFive (pentavalent vaccine) for three years (from 2010 to 2012).

EasyFive is world's first fully liquid pentavalent vaccine introduced in India by Panacea Biotec in January 2009. The drug immunizes children against five dreadful diseases in early childhood.

The company had received the pre-qualification for EasyFive from the World Health Organization (WHO) in July last year.

Panacea Biotec's net profit fell 61.7% to Rs 13.03 crore on 21.1% fall in net sales to Rs 177.21 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Panacea Biotec operates a pharmaceutical company in India, which manufactures a variety of drugs that are distributed internationally. The company's key products include a Hepatitis B vaccine and drugs for diabetes management.


source : capital market

Fwd: STOCK TO WATCH GDL CMP RS. 93.00

BUY GDL CMP 93

TARGET 100

STOP LOSS 90

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 19.08.09

COMMENTS ON CHART.

14283 CAN BE KEPT AS STOP LOSS FOR LONG POSITIONS.

5000 HITS IN 3 MONTHS TIME.

DEAR FRIENDS,

I STARTED BLOG IN MAY 2009 AND I STARTED SITE METER FROM 21/5/09 AND TODAY IT HAS CROSSED 5000 MARK !

I THANK YOU ALL FOR THE RESPONSE. IT WILL KEEP ME WORKING HARDER TO GIVE BETTER READING MATERIAL.

I HAVE STARTED TODAY SECTION OF MOMENTUM STOCKS FOR TARDING. ON GETTING COMMENTS I WILL CONTINUE IF IT IS USEFUL.


PANKAJ SHAH

Fwd: sensex as on 18.08.09

COMMENTS ON CHART

MOMENTUM STOCKS FOR TRADING

i start herewith a section where i will give some stocks where momentum is seen and can be used by readers for trading.i will give cmp only. keep stop loss as per yr risk apetite and profit target as per yr comfort.
avaya global 124.5
tricom 17
onmobile 528
geodesic 123
micro tech 137

IOC 587, part profit booking can be done on rise

i had recommended ioc at 571 with target higher than 700 but looking at mkt conditions and probability of getting sensex zone around 14300 i recoomend to book profit in ioc as per yr comfort and keep trailing stop loss.cmp is 587.

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 17.08.09

VIEWS ON ATTACHED CHART

Fwd: TECHNICAL PICK IOC CMP RS 571.00

TECHNICAL PICK IOC CMP RS . 571.00 TARGET RS .750 STOP LOSS 550 TIME FRAME 3 TO 5 WEEKS.

MARKET STATUS

market has obliged by vindicating my optimistic view for today and gave a strong rally of more than 3 %.we have closed today above 3/5/8/13/21/34/50  all imp dma levels.more over we have retraced fall from 16002 to 14703 by more than 61.8 % and closed just above that .if we sustain above these levels we can see new high for sensex.

 

all stocks i discussed yesterday has moved up by 2 to 5%.it was a broadbased rally. good IIP nos,tax code discussions by fin minister, positive outlook by US has triggered this bullishness forgetting  -ve triggers like swine flu and poor monsoon.

 

in this rally we are observing a typical pattern of trend reversal. whenever we are close to end of correction we see a doji or hammer pattern and next day we observe gap opening and big move of 400/500 points like we saw today.after such moves we have seen sideways moves in index for few days which confuse mkt players. better be stock specific and take yr decisions.

Fwd: MARKET UPDATE

http://pankaj564.blogspot.com/2009/08/fwd-sensex-as-on-110809.html 

 

i had shown parellel trend line set up yesterday and discussed abt probable 5 sub waves of upmove started from 13220. today due to weak global weakness we corrected heavily in morning but recovered smartly later to make a perfect hammer.  it  is a bullish candlestic pattern. it needs follow up next day.today we have closed within channel i had shown yesterday and hope for 5th sub wave is still alive.

 

if we look at individual stock charts like sbi, acc,tata motors,kotak bank,ambuja cement, maruti....all of them have taken support on a trendline from where  they must bounce or on break of trendline chances of total bull run in those stocks come in danger.so i hope we will move up tomorrow to complete final sub wave.

 

when i am writing this update US markets r up by more than 1 % , that will also help us to open up.

 

cement, auto, banking are stronger sectors at presnt.

 

Fwd: sensex as on 11.08.09

look at chart attached. in last update i had shown that we have corrected near 50% of last rise from 14170 to 16002 when we made a low of 15104.today we made low of 14864 which is at 62% of this rise from 14170 to 16002 again a imp fibo ratio. more over we were on 21st day after we made bottom of 13220. we r very close to 50 dma.

in chart i have shown parellel trendlines which give support and resistances. in coming days if we survive today's low of 14864 and move up it cld be either 5th and final sub wave of this upmove or if we have made top at 16002 it cld be pull back to fall from 16002 to 14864. in both cases it is advisable to sell and generate cash.

Fwd: BULLISH OPTION AS ON 7.08.09

in last mail i had shown a blue trendline for upmove. it is formed by connecting levels of 14786 and 14888. actually if we observe nifty charts it has tested on friday on similar levels. so i have tried an optimistic bullish option. if we follow the same we can see level betn 16k and 16.9k in coming days and that can be end of this rally from where we can see a decent correction.

Fwd: SENSEX AS ON 7.08.09

VIEWS ON CHART

STOCK TO WATCH DEEPAK FERTILISER CMP RS 83.00

BUY DEEPAK FERTILISER FOR SHORT TERM CMP. 83.

Fwd: 16K TESTED

COMMENTS ON CHART.

hotel stocks showing strength

in today's correcting market HOTEL stocks like indian hotel , hotel leela are showing strength, can be added for short term trading

Frenzy reaches its peak

INTERESTING MAIL FROM SANDIP SABHARWAL...
http://sandipsabharwal.blogspot.com/2009/08/frenzy-reaches-its-peak.html

Fwd: market status

as per my mails dated 18/7 and 25/7 we are very close to 16k zone, 61.8% retracement level of total fall from 21206 to 7697.

more over as i had discussed in last mail this is a weaker rally like jan2008 top (negative divergence). we are very close to resistance zone in rsi trendline as shown in chart.

more over as per expectation mid caps and small caps are outperforming large caps.

gann turning dates are from 3/08/09 to 7/08/09, observe high and lows during this period for further direction.



as i had compared current moves with jan 2008 top moves, vivek patil has compared similar moves with labelling waves as
a-b-c-d-e-f-g. so according to him we may be very close to end of upmoving "e" and we can see downward " f " to be followed by upward move " g ".so for long positions we have to keep strict stop losses . book profits and generate cash to utilise in correction.