NO BLOG UPDATE TILL 2/8/09

there will not be any update on blog till 2/8/09.

Fwd: MARKET STATUS

in last update on 18/7/09, i had said we are heading towards 16k+. we have moved higher in strong manner so far, crossed 15098 and next hurdle is at last top made at 15600.we are facing resistance at a trend line connecting tops made on 29/06/09, 6/7/09.

 

i was just trying to compare current moves with moves just before jan 2008 top at 21206.we had seen highest rsi level of apprx 85 when we were near 18k in first week of oct 2007. after that we moved sideways in range of apprx 2000 points betn 18500 and 20500 for two months nov and dec 2007.sensex moved higher but with reducing rsi levels.means it was a weaker rally.during that period retail participation increased and distribution was on by smart players.we made top in jan2008 and big correction started......

 

we are moving in range of 13500 and 15500 since last 2 months. we have seen highest rsi lvl of 80 on 19/5/09 in post election result euphoria when sensex was at 14931.yeterday we closed at 15378 but rsi level is 63.

sensex is moving higher but with reducing rsi level, weaker rally again?

if we in the similar situation and if we r going to make an intermediate top we shd see active retail participation, upmoves in mid and small cap stocks. yesterday we have seen rise in volumes of mid and small cap and upmoves.may be in couple of weeks we may see an intermediate top.but we must see more n more volumes in mid and small cap stocks yet and retail participation also.we may face strong resistance when we reach rsi level of apprx 70.till then enjoy rally in mid and small cap stocks.......

 

STOCK TO WATCH RPOWER AND POWER GRID

STOCKS TO WATCH FOR SHORT TERM.

 

POWER GRID CMP 114

 

TARGET 127

 

STOP LOSS 107

 

RELIANCE POWER CMP 169

 

TARGET 181

 

STOP LOSS 161

DR REDDY AT A CRITCAL SUPPORT

COMMENTS ON CHART

stock to watch DR REDDY cmp 791

pharma stocks have started showing strength now.

 

look at DR DReddy for short term trading.

 

cmp 791

 

target 823

 

stop loss 769

 

Fwd: HEADING TO 16K+

yesterday  during market hours i had posted nifty chart.

 

NIFTY AT A CRITICAL LEVEL

 

in nifty we have crossed downward trend line. today i have posted chart for sensex.it has just tested trend line but looking at other indicators markets will cross it soon.so now we will be looking for +ve option as i had discussed ....

MARKET ?

so we might be moving on first sub wave of fifth sub wave .targets for this move can be 16k+

 

 

--
The easiest way to make ourselves healthy is to see that others are healthy, and the easiest way to make ourselves happy is to see that others are happy - Swami Vivekananda

NIFTY AT A CRITICAL LEVEL

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

MARKET ?

as expected we got resisted at neckline of H n S which was around 14450 and today's high was 14493 and we closed at 14250 neacr yesterday's close.

 

in last mail i had said

 

"if we can cross this zone decisively then we will discuss bullish views, till then we r treating this upmove as a pull back. "

 

today in isg forum more details were asked for bullish view and i had replied as given below.pl go thru it it is interesting.

**********************************************************************************************

at present we are correcting after making a top at 15600 and lower top
at 15098 seen on budget day.more over at present we are following H n
S pattern.and today's level for neck line was around 14450 and today
we have seen 14493 and reversed from there. since neckline is inclined
upwards more we pass time neck line levels will go higher.

now i come to bullish option in mind ;

if u recall i had shown a downward channel after we started correcting
from 15098, so a downward resistance line i am following that is
connecting 15600 and 15098. if we cross this trend line that will give
first indication of any bullishness.for today value is just above
14800 and will come down as we pass more time.and more strength can
come to bullish view on croosing 15098 which a last intermediate top
made.

as per wave count to justify this bullish view we have to consider
that all corrections were over at 7697 last yr oct.and assuming that
we are on a fresh bull run from 7697 and we are on first upward wave
having 5 sub waves with following counts.

first upward 7697 to 10945
second downward 10945 to 8047
third upward 8047 to 15600
fourth downward 15600 to 13220
fifth and final upward from 13220 to ....?

i am having this view since no of days but i have not discussed in isg
or at my blog bcz it wld have confused followers.i will update on
further developements. hope this does not confuse any one.
*************************************************************************

we have to watch market for few days. if neck line of H n S is crossed decisively then we will think for bullish option. as discussed above on crossing downward trend line connecting 15600 and 15098 will give us first indication for the same.

 

 

 

 

TIME TO BE CAUTIOUS

we continued with upmove today also with very good broad based participation. we reached to 14300 very close to target of 14400 given yesterday.

i give herewith some levles:-

NECK LINE RESISATNCE AT NECKL INE FOR TOMORROW JUST ABOVE 14400
61.8% RETRACEMENT OF FALL FROM 15098 TO 13220 AT 14381
50 % RETRACEMENT OF FALL FROM 15600 TO 13220 AT 14410
FALLING WEDGE TARGET NEAR 14400 ALREADY GIVEN YESTERDAY.

we have moved up by more than 1000 points in this upmove. it may be advisable to book profits around this zone and watch market from side lines. it is quite possible that we may see consolidation in large cap and can see continuation in mid cap stocks.

if we can cross this zone decisively then we will discuss bullish views, till then we r treating this upmove as a pull back.

SENSEX AS ON 14.07.09

based on rsi trendline support i had discussed yesterday and with help of +ve global markets we have seen good upmove in our markets.since we are correcting with Head n Shoulder pattern this upmove can be strongly resisted at neck line whenever we reach there in coming days.

 

more over we have seen break out from a falling wedge today as shown in chart and this give target of apprx 14400.

 

this upmove can be used for trading only with strict stop losses.

WILL RSI TRENDLINE WILL HELP TO GIVE A PULL BACK?

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED.

 

COMMENTS ON CHART.

5 DAY CHART AS ON 9.07.09

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED. POSITIVE DIVERGENCE IS SHOWN IN RSI IN CHART, SLOW STOCHASTIC AND MACD ARE ALSO SHOWING +VE DIVERGENCE. WILL WE SEE A PULL BACK?

13700 BROKEN

as per expectation we got support at 13700 yesterday and we bounced upto apprx 14k.

today we have broken 13700 also. still we are moving in downward channel and support level in this channel will be getting lower n lower daily.

55 dma is at 13641, next fibo mov avg is 89dma and it is at 12059

 

if we look at candle stick chart now reliable supports come around 13519 low made on 26/05/09 and 13479 gap open low made on 18/05/09 on post election result euphoric day. below that 12300/12500 will be next good support area.

for resistance we shd observe neck line of H n S pattern.

 

now we are making lower top lower bottom formations.for any pull back first signal can come on crossing last top around 14k made yesterday.

SENSEX AS ON 6.07.09

i have been referring 15100-15300 zone as a strong resistance zone since no of days.on crossing 15300 decisively only we have to be on bullish side for targets of 16k. we reached today at 15098 and big sell off was seen.
no attractive proposals to cheer up market were seen. no change in STT,higher fiscal deficit, very small disinvestment proposals invited big sell off. more over global markets are also in similar mode.

downward channel is shown in chart.today we closed below 3/5/8/13/21 and 34 dma.next support may come around 50/55 dma in 13500-13800 zone.from ther we can see pull back rallies which shd be used to sell.

budget day trading call BUY BEL (BHARAT ELECT) CMP 1400.

TRADING CALL FOR BUDGET DAY

BUY BEL (BHARAT ELECT) CMP 1400.

KEEP PROFIT BOOKING AND STOP LOSS TARGETS AS PER YR COMFORT.OR U CAN KEEP STOP LOSS OF RS. 1340 (FRIDAY LOW)

sensex options as on 3.07.09

i have discussed market options in past mails. i have put both options in a single chart today.i have tried to show probable moves in coming few weeks.

as per one option we can move upto apprx 15300 and we can start good correction.

as per second option if we cross 15300 zone decisively we can see 16047 or more.

more comments are on charts.

MARKET GETTING READY TO MOVE FAST IN BREAKING OUT DIRECTION

we saw level of 15600 on 12/06/09 and after that corrected upto 14016 on 23/06/09 . after that we are consolidating. first we retraced upto 61.8% lvl at 14995 and retracing by 61.8% again and again. as shown in chart we are now on verge of break out in any direction and we will move fast in breaking out dirction.

we have been moving betn 21 dma and 34dma since lst 10 days. we r not closing above 21 dma and below 34 dma.
we have been closing above upmoving trend line on linear scale since march.

on higher side we can break out we can see levels of 15100-15300 first.i have shown a trend line connecting tops of 21206 and 15600. it will give resistance around 15300. on decisive crossing above 15300 probability of going for new high can increase and we can see levels of 16k.

on lower side on breaking support line we can get support on neck line around 14200. below that 14016 remains lst n final support for all long positions.

VOLATILITY CONTINUES.....

today also we saw volatility in mkt.even today we have closed above 34dma and on trendline. we r getting stong resistance at 21 dma. we r not able to close above it.today's range was given 14800-14400. we moved in range of 14765-14470.
still we r in two channels shown yesterday. for tomorrow we can be in range of 14470-14730.any decisive move above 14800 will indicate for move towards 15100-15300 zone minm.
steel stocks like tata steel, sail , power stocks like tata power has shown strength today.

14016 IS A FINAL STOP LOSS FOR ALL LONG POSIOTIONS.

VOLATILE AND CHOPPY SESSION

today we saw highly volatile and choppy session swinging in both directions.

we broke today 34dma and upmoving trend line intraday but closed above both.

i have shown two channels in attched chart. one is upward. second is downward.

they will help us in judging mkt direction.downward channel will give strong resistance around 14800.

upward channel will give support around 14400.

tentative Head n Shoulder pattern was shown before few days back. i have shown neck line also in chart. that will give support at 14200.

 

AS MENTIONED EARLIER 14016 IS A FINAL STOP LOSS FOR ALL LONG POSIOTIONS.